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Transcript Introduction

CAFE baseline dissemination
September 27, 2004
Hendrik Conscience building, Brussels
Clean Air for Europe
Purpose of the workshop
1. Presentation public, first hand information on the CAFE
baseline projections.
2. Understanding of the common starting point for the
analysis on further emission control legislation in Europe.
3. Information on project environmental and health impacts
of the air quality up to 2020.
4. Presentation the results of the peer review of the RAINS
5. Clarification of results.
6. Information of next steps on analysis and publication of
the Thematic Strategy on Air Pollution.
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10:10 Building the baseline (Vainio)
10:30 Energy projections (Mantzos)
10:55 Commentary (Jol)
11:05 Discussion
14:00 Baseline impacts (Amann)
14:40 Commentary (Ågren)
14:50 Discussion
15:20 Sum up findings (Amann)
11:20 Coffee break
15:40 Coffee break
11:40 CAFE Baseline (Amann)
12:10 Commentary (Baverstock)
12:20 Discussion
16:00 RAINS Review (Woodfield)
16:30 Discussion
16:50 Overall discussion
17:20 Next steps (Gammeltoft)
17.30 Closure
13:00 Lunch
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Building the baseline
“Wisdom starts from facing the facts”:
(3 December 2001)
Main issues to be solved when baseline is developed:
Changes in economic activity
Changes in the structure of our economies
Changes in autonomous technological development
Changes in specific sectors
Agriculture (e.g. CAP reform), energy supply (eg. renewables, nuclear), transport sector (e.g.
biofuels, congestion charging), industry and other sectors (new production methods, innovations
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Principles when building
the CAFE baseline
Extensive consultation
Review main tools
CCE, WHO, EGTEI and others gave vital technical information
EMEP calculated the effects of the baseline emissions
CAFE team decided with CLRTAP (TFIAM) to have RAINS peer reviewed.
Review ecosystem and health impacts - abatement options
Planned to hold three stakeholder workshops. Actually held “kick off” and
“final” workshop and a series of bilateral consultations. In addition, specific
workshops/meetings on agriculture, transport (TREMOVE) and industry were
held either under the auspices of CAFE or separately (eg. TFIAM).
Also EMEP model was peer reviewed.
Identified the clear need to share the CAFE baseline with the State of the
Environment and Outlook of EEA.
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Main technical tasks of Clean Air for Europe
Assessment of health and
environ-mental effects (2001-03)
New target
(2004) [4.1 &
Baseline emissions and air quality scenario
(including atmospheric modelling) (2001-04)
Development & integration of models (2001-04)
(including CBA)
(2004-05) [5.1-5.3]
(2005) [7]
[2.4 & 5.2]
Implementation (2001-04) [6.1]
Peer review
Stakeholder participation
Public information
Note: Numbers is parenthesis ( ) refer to the years when the tasks are carried out.
Numbers in square brackets [ ] refer to the tables of tasks in the Work Plan
27 September, 2004
Details of main technical tasks of CAFE
Assessment of health
and environmental
effects [1.1-1.4]
Selection of indicators
Selection of health
and environmental
targets for
optimisation [4.2]
Selection of
scenarios [5.2]
Identification of potential
measures [5.1]
Cost curves
Baseline emissions
scenario [2.1-2.2]
Source-receptor functions,
regional and urban scale [2.4]
Monitoring and atmospheric modelling [2.3-2.4]
Modelling [5.2]
Assessment of
targets or
Analysis of
costs and
benefits [5.3]
27 September 2004
Note: Numbers in
square brackets [ ]
refer to the tables of
tasks in the Work Plan
Implementation, peer review, stakeholder participation, public information
Why and how were climate
policies included
It was clear that one cannot prepare a baseline in isolation
of climate change policies
Decarbonisation of the EU will affect air quality up to 2020
However, for CAFE robust assumptions should be enough
In consultion with the Climate Change unit, specific
assumptions were made:
”Climate bonus” assumes that the enlarged EU complies with the
Kyoto Protocol with €12 per tonne of CO2 equivalent
In the ”Sectoral Objectives study” the main conclusion was that EU-15
could comply with €20 per tonne of CO2 equivalent. JI/CDM and
enlargement will reduce this cost.
Carbon constraint is assumed to increase linearly to €20 per tonne
of CO2 equivalent by 2020
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What about NEC?
A separate baseline for NEC will be constructed
Also the integrated assessment modelling will be
further developed
Bilateral consultations will take place in 2005
Proposal from the Commission in 2006
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In 2001, we aimed at getting a baseline that is “as good as it
Now we have it!
So let’s see how it looks like!
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