Transcript changing composition of coffee consumption - ico

Changing Patterns of
Consumption,
Reasons & Impact for Producers
& Global Sustainability of Robusta
and Naturals
ASOEXPORT, CARTAGENA 06 NOV 2015 Surendra Kotecha
Main Global Trends
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Price - consensus going down
Increased price volatility
Climate change, temperature, water needs
Continued sustainability standards
Increased use of Robusta coffees
Consumer prefer systems offering
convenience
ASOEXPORT, CARTAGENA 06 NOV 2015 Surendra Kotecha
Sustainability of Consumption
• Originally support farmers, low prices
• Consider consumers of 80% + generic
• Also want sustainably priced coffees to be
doing good for farmer livelihoods
ASOEXPORT, CARTAGENA 06
NOV 2015 Surendra Kotecha
ASOEXPORT, CARTAGENA
06 NOV 2015
Surendra Kotecha Coffee Quality & Marketing
CHANGING COMPOSITION OF COFFEE CONSUMPTION - ICO
Influence of Supply on
Consumption
• Sporadic disruption of volume origin
• Roaster procurement planning
• Blend ‘engineering’, better defined as
adaptation by replacement of part or whole
of green bean ingredient/s to suit
particular taste profile of blend
• Trader positions - entrusted to supply taste
specific blends at arrival port silos, in bulk
to the roaster unit.
ASOEXPORT, CARTAGENA 06
NOV 2015 Surendra Kotecha
Changing Supply Impact
• Roasters choose consistent & high volume
origins, changing scenario, Vietnam Brazil
• Growth in volume by two countries with
sustainable costs of production; improved
qualities – Brazil naturals & Vietnam WP
• Roasters pricing for market share and
price competition
• Supply pushes consumption to solutions
ASOEXPORT, CARTAGENA 06
NOV 2015 Surendra Kotecha
Case of Germany
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>90% are blends but composition change
1990 Colombia was 26%, Vietnam ZERO
By 2014 Colombia < 5% Vietnam 24%
Robusta import increased 14% to 35%
Remember increased trade to E. Europe
Colombia decline due stronger differentials
and high global prices at the same time
• May change 2016 onwards
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NOV 2015 Surendra Kotecha
1990
2005
‘000 bags
2014
%
‘000 bags
%
‘000 bags
%
Brazil
994
8
4,246
28
6,328
34
Vietnam
Nil
Nil
2,549
17
4,510
24
Honduras
Table 6.X. Countries exporting coffee to Germany in 1990, 2005 and 2014, and the Robusta portion
Sources: ICO, Eugen148
Atté coffee agent, ITC’s 1
Coffee Exporter’s Guide671
( www.thecoffeeguide.org,
4 Q&A 144) and others.
1,531
Peru
86
0.5
Colombia
4472
26
Total of the four
1,228
9.5
Other countries
11,474
Grand total
12,702
Robusta portion of the total
90.5
100
741
5
8
1,013
5
766
4
8,207
54
6,789
46
5,425
29
14,996
100
18,807
100
14
ASOEXPORT, CARTAGENA 06
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29
13,382
71
35
Coffee Machines & Quality
• Coffee machines development – espresso base
• Bean to Cup, fresh grind, key to better quality
• Self-serve machines – macchiato, latte etc with
fresh instead of powdered milk
• Interacting with machines, roast profiles in timing
and temperature, better packaging, degree of
roast, machine adjustment settings for grind,
grams of dosage, water volume and
temperature, infusion time and spin cycles per
second have yielded cup improvements.
• Improved Brazil qualities, Robusta potential;
Solubles
ASOEXPORT, CARTAGENA 06
NOV 2015 Surendra Kotecha
Grower Perspectives
• From the production angle, contributory
factors to the increase in robusta usage:
• Lower costs of production
• Hardiness to drought; pests & diseases
(especially leaf rust).
• Yield responses to fertiliser and irrigation
timing for flowering and setting.
• Combined factors result in greater margins
• Reduced production risks.
ASOEXPORT, CARTAGENA 06
NOV 2015 Surendra Kotecha
Background of Robusta
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Known 150 years compare Arabica 400
Generic to Canephora, congensis, quillou
50m years old; predecessor to Arabica
Central & west Africa to Uganda origin
Cultivated due global leaf rust, Sri Lanka
Treated as secondary quality, sundried
Stigma can change with improved
processing & acceptance to pleasant
different but pleasant flavours
ASOEXPORT, CARTAGENA 06
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CQI Fine Robusta Protocol
• Decided not use ‘specialty’ but ‘fine’ Robu
• Denser bean, more difficult for even roast
with moisture content variation
• Higher caffeine and chlorogenic acid
creates bitterness bigger caffeine kick
• Substantially potassium based, Arabica
more sodium salts & organic acids (citric)
• Causing ‘Robusta flavour’
ASOEXPORT, CARTAGENA 06
NOV 2015 Surendra Kotecha
CQI ‘R’ Profile Evaluation Sheet
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Mouthfeel to describe Body
Bitter-Sweet Ratio discern fine + softness
Salt: Acid ratio column
Otherwise the same as for ‘Q’ arabica :
Aroma, Flavor, Aftertaste, Balance,
Uniform Cups, Clean Cups, Overall.
• Defects, both Taints and Faults, can also
be recorded on the form
ASOEXPORT, CARTAGENA 06
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Factors for Fine Robusta Tastes
• Some acidity, sweetness , softness
• Variety / plant material, soil type, shade
patterns and moisture conditions, climate
and altitude (1000-1500 metres depending
on latitude); harvest (ripe only) and postharvest processing
• Finest qualities - initially India & Uganda;
later identified varying ‘fineness’ in Flores
of Indonesia, Mexico, Tanzania, Brazil,
Cameroun & Congo. Washed Amagu
PapuaNGuinea generally fermented.
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Arabica Naturals & Pulped Naturals
• Scientific approach, CQI - Mario Roberto,
Fernandez Alduenda, from Mexico; PhD at
University of Otago in New Zealand
• Thesis entitled ‘The effect of processing
on the flavour character of Arabica
Naturals’ is on the impact on cup quality
of the post-harvest technique/s; Washed,
pulped natural & natural process.
• Overall aim: understand flavour of Arabica
natural coffee as product class &
understand main taste formation pathway
during the post-harvest drying process.
Conclusions & Ways Forward?
• The way forward in terms of global
sustainability and supply-demand balance:
with increased annual demand,
• Washed arabica will continue, especially
the flavour characteristics of Colombia
• Need for improvements in Robusta
• Climate change implications- elevation
• Water supply needs changes in
processing methods we use.
ASOEXPORT, CARTAGENA 06
NOV 2015 Surendra Kotecha
For Colombia
• Continue arabicas washed & develop
natural & pulped - new planting higher
• Considering land planning for food security
as well, robustas of the correct appropriate
varieties for quality can be planted on
slightly lower elevations
• Need for classification & regulation to
strictly monitored to retain reputation and
image of Colombia as the prime source of
consistent high quality washed arabicas
ASOEXPORT, CARTAGENA 06
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Marketing
• For enhanced promotion of marketing, the
geographical indication (GI) registration at
the EU of Colombia as a country should
be further harnessed
• Use in more detail with the different
regions having their own sub-identities:
Varieties or processing methods or taste
profiles, more akin to wine and other GI
products.
ASOEXPORT, CARTAGENA 06
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NOV 2015 Surendra Kotecha
ASOEXPORT, CARTAGENA 06
NOV 2015 Surendra Kotecha