Transcript Research needs and priorities to support UNFCCC

By Ann Gordon
Deputy Chief Meteorologist
National Meteorological Service
Belize
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Setting the Context: Most recent projections for
Caribbean Region -similar activities occurring in
other SIDS region
The need for research on impacts of climate change
on different parts of the world - more focused
research on regional impacts
The need to strengthen regional models
Strengthening Science-Policy Dialogue in
Developing Countries
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Doubling in frequency of hurricanes in strongest categories 4 and
5 by 2100, particularly in Northern Caribbean, despite overall
decrease in frequency of average tropical cyclones
Recent satellite observations reveal acceleration of mass loss from
polar ice caps. Continuing this trend would imply up to 1 m SLR
by 2100
Increasing CO2 concentration acidifying the world oceans:
◦ Under current pledges:
-By 2030s, GHG concentration is expected to be at 450 ppm
CO2, coral reefs may dissolve
-By 2050s, GHG concentration is expected to be at 550 ppm
CO2, coral may stop growing
◦ Below 350 ppm CO2 appears to be ‘safe’ for reefs
◦ CO2 at present 386 ppm and rising at 2ppm/year
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Increasing CO2 concentration acidifying the
world oceans:
◦ Under a Copenhagen Accord outcomes with
current targets,
-By 2030s, GHG concentration is expected to be at
450 ppm CO2, coral reefs may dissolve
-By 2050s, GHG concentration is expected to be at
550 ppm CO2, coral may stop growing
◦ Below 350 ppm CO2 appears to be ‘safe’ for reefs
◦ CO2 at present 386 ppm and rising at 2ppm/year
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Models show warming trend continues reaching by
2080’s a further increase of between 1 and 5 degrees C.
Greater Warming in the NW Caribbean (Jamaica,
Cuba, Hispaniola, Belize) than in E Caribbean.
Greater warming in JJA than in cooler traditionally
drier earlier months DJF
Drier Caribbean basin in annual total by 2080’s
Similar scenarios being developed in other SIDs
region- same level of support needed
Impacts of climate change on different sectors
in the region given that climate, climate
change and vulnerabilities differ by regions,
also some sectors are more sensitive than
others
 Ice sheets and Sea Level Rise (SLR) with a
focus on regional distribution on sea level rise
 The impacts of a 1.5⁰C, 2⁰C and 3⁰C
temperature rise on sea level rise
-need for scenarios of SLR to better
understand adaptation issues
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The impacts of a 1.5⁰ C, 2⁰C and 3⁰C temperature
rise on marine and terrestrial life in the region to
better estimate thresholds.
The Physical and Biological impacts of Sea Level
Rise: focus on ecosystems and ecological processes.
Impacts of Ocean acidification and biogeochemical
processes on marine life
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Integrated assessments of climate change impacts
and responses, for example: increase in SST will
affect coral reefs, sea grass beds, mangroves, etc.
Observed and projected economic impacts of climate
change
The ‘human side’ of the implications of climate
change, including, human security
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Given improved spatial resolution of climate
projections, integrated assessments of potential
damage to society (economy, health etc.) are urgently
needed to estimate adaptation needs
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Planning, costing, and best practices for national
adaptation strategies and plans in different sectors
Research on climate finance on how best to
secure adequate and accessible finance sources
Tools and methods for assessment and decisionmaking related to adaptation implementation
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Significant advances made, however, much work needs to be
done to reduce model biases through better representation of
physical processes and higher spatial resolution
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Regional climate modeling of climate change scenarios needs
to be improved:
 to pick up smaller scale phenomenon and reduce
uncertainties
 to analyse future changes in weather extremes such as
tropical cyclones.
Strengthening Science-Policy Dialogue in developing
countries and between Regions
 Develop a mechanism for sharing best practices so
that we can learn from each others experiences.