Transcript 080312lvo_Slides_Energy

S
tates Leading the Way With PEVs
Daniel Sperling
Professor and Director
Institute of Transportation Studies (ITS-Davis)
University of California, Davis
and
Board Member, California Air Resources Board
CEIP
Washington, DC
24 September 2012
In our report, we say…
“States and localities, which have generally
advanced PEV commercialization more
directly and effectively than has
Washington, will likely be the source of the
most durable solutions.”
Huge Market Uncertainty
• Consumers: How will they value all-electric
range, limited range, zero emissions,
quietness?
• Technology: How fast will battery
costs drop?
• Manufacturers: How will
automakers
value PEVs?
• Policy??
Early
adopters
Mainstream
consumers
Valley
of
death
Development of market
What We Know…
Continuum of Electrification, But
Uncertain Market Outcomes
ICE
Mild
Hybrid
Full
Hybrid
Short AER
PHEV
?
Long AER
PHEV
Full BEV
FCV
2025 CAFE/GHG 54 mpgStandards
Probably Won’tStimulateSignificant PEV
S
ales by 2025…
Even WithSpecial ZEV Credits (EVs count as 0 g/mi
and receive 2x credits initially)
S
tringency
% GHG reduction/yr
% Hybrids
% EVs
4%
18
0
5%
43
1
CARB/EPA/DOT Analysis of Technology Needed for Compliance
5
Why (State) Policymakers Are Interested in PEVs
•
•
•
•
•
Air pollution and public health
Climate change
Electric utility performance
Jobs
Industrial development
Motivations vary greatly across government
agencies and legislatures
… for California, it was first local air pollution
and is now mostly climate change
One CARB Scenario to Achieve GHG goals by 2050 …
Virtually All Light Duty Vehicles must be “ZEV” by 2050
S
ource: http://www.arb.ca.gov/board/books/2012/012612/12-1-2pres.pdf
Many States Charging Ahead With PEVs
ZEV
mandate
states
Checklist for California Policies Supporting PEVs
 Motivating PEV Manufacturers and Consumers
 ZEV mandate (CARB + 10 states)
 PEV consumer tax credit ($2500)
 GHG/CAFE stds to incentivize PEVs
 Carpool lane access
 Cultivating Local PEV Clusters
 Working with metro areas on public charging and streamlining
permitting (w/DOE funding)
 Promoting PEV Interactions With Electricity Providers
 Electricity rate design for PEVs (PUC)
 Investing strategically in recharging infrastructure (Governor, $100
million)
 Revenues from low carbon fuel standard (LCFS)
 Cap and trade revenues?
Key California Policy Has Been ZEV Mandate, With a
Tortured History (now adopted by 10 other states)
Year
1990
1996
1998
2001
2002
2008
2012
ZEV mandate adopted: 2% ZEVs in 1998, 5% in 2001,
and 10% in 2003—measured as % of new car sales
Eliminated 2% 1998 requirement and replaced with much
softer requirement of 3750 BEVs
% ZEV requirement further reduced by allowing very
clean gasoline (and other alt fuel) vehicles as partial
substitute (“PZEV”)
% ZEV requirement further reduced by allowing small
numbers of FCVs to satisfy requirement
GM/DCX sue and win temporary delays
New requirement: 12,500 BEVs or 5000 FCVs, plus
58,000 PHEVs by 2014
Large increase for post-2015
Stimulated investment in electric-drive technology, but limited impact on
market development (so far).
Likely Compliance Scenario
Min ZEV Compliance with expected FCV/BEV split
ZEV Mandate (California)
(roughly equal % for 10 other states)
14% of 2025 New
Vehicle Sales
250,000
FCVs
150,000
12%
9%
BEVs
100,000
6%
PHEVs
50,000
Annual % of New Vehicle Sales
Annual Vehicle Sales
200,000
15%
3%
0
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
5
UCDavis University of California
California Energy Commission Funded
New PH&EV Center at UC Davis
Consumers
•
•
•
•
Lifestyle studies
Market demand
Usage patterns
CEC, BMW, ARB
Fleet
Development
•
•
•
•
Market Segments
Fleet Operation
Energy Savings
Chrysler, DOE
Battery Studies
• Benchmark
Testing
• 2nd use
• End of life
Siting Public
Chargers
• GIS analysis
• Charging network
design
• CEC, Nissan
New Public-Private Leadership in California
PEV Collaborative
created in 2010 to
coordinate activities
between state and
local governments,
automakers, electric
utilities, and others.
This detailed report was
published in Dec 2010.
California Aggressive in Promoting ZEVs
(led by Governor, CARB, PUC)
May 2012 ZEV Executive Order by Governor
 $100M for:
– 200 fast charging stations
– 10,000 parking space charging stations at
apartment complexes, large work sites,
universities, etc
 Targets set by Governor’s Executive Order
• 2015: major cities have adequate infrastructure and “ZEV
ready”
• 2025: 1.5 million ZEVs in California
• 2050: virtually all personal transportation based on ZEVs and
GHG emissions from transportation reduced by 80 percent.
15
EV Charging Infrastructure Challenges
• How much public charging needed, where, and
what type (110v, 220v, 480v) ?
 For PHEVs and BEVs
• Will industry invest in public charging?
• What is role of gov’t for:
 Home
 Workplace (and retail shopping)
 “Public”
How to Obtain
Approval for EV
Charging Installation
Project Get Ready &
ETEC, 2011
A really dumb location for
EV charging (in N. Carolina)
Photo courtesy of Linda Gaines
UCDavis University of California
UC Davis Is Designing Optimized
Charging Networks
• GIStools
• Fast charge network
design
• Regional planning
• Demand analysis
(temporal and
geographical)
Funding: CEC, ECOtality, Nissan
UCDavis University of California
Where do People Want Chargers and of What Type?
More Incentives for PEVs
California Low Carbon Fuel Standard
adopted by California April 23, 2009
• Requires 10% reduction in carbon intensity of transport
fuels (gCO2-eq/MJ)
• Encompasses all fuels: NG, petroleum, unconventional oil,
biofuels, electricity, H2
• Based on lifecycle measurements (source to wheel)
• Imposed on oil refiners
• Companies can buy and sell credits (from electricity and/or
infrastructure suppliers)
Could generate hundreds of dollars per vehicle per year
Summary of California Policies Supporting PEVs
 Motivating PEV Manufacturers and Consumers
 ZEV mandate (CARB + 10 states)
 PEV consumer tax credit ($2500)
 GHG/CAFE stds to incentivize PEVs
 Carpool land access
 Cultivating Local PEV Clusters
 Working with metro areas on public charging and streamlining
permitting (w/DOE funding)
 Promoting PEV Interactions With Electricity Providers
 Electricity rate design for PEVs (PUC)
 Investing strategically in recharging infrastructure (Governor, $100
million)
 Revenues from low carbon fuel standard (LCFS)
 Cap and trade revenues?
Overarching Policy/Ideological Issues
• Importance of government intervention?
• Perceived “cost” of pollution/climate change, and urgency
in addressing them?
• Market vs regulatory approach?
Policy approaches depend on what you believe:
1) PEVs are expensive and have limited market potential;
OR
2) PEVs are attractive and sustainable, and likely to
dominate
“States and localities, which have generally advanced PEV
commercialization more directly and effectively than has
Washington, will likely be the source of the most durable
solutions.”(?!)