Transcript Climate change

Climate Change
& Wine 2008
Barcelona 15 & 16 February
AL GORE
Special Guest
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Michel Rolland
Jacques Lurton
Ernst Loosen
Miguel Torres
Bruno Prats
Pascal Chatonnet
Stephen Skelton MW
Richard Smart
Greg Jones
Hans Schultz
Peter Hayes
Pancho Campo
Bernard Seguin
Santiago Mínguez
Vicente Sotés
J. R. Lisarrague
A. García Luján
Xavier Sort
J. R. Picatoste
CLIMATE
CHANGE
WHAT IS
CLIMATE
CHANGE
•SCIENTIFIC BASIS
• IMPACTS
CLIMATE
CHANGE &
WINE
• CO2 - UV-B
• HUGLIN
• WINKLER
• TEMPERATURES
• RAINFALL
• PHENOLOGY
• DISEASES
PROJECTIONS
• MITIGATION
• ADAPTATION
• PROYECTIONS
Energy radiates from
the earth surface
Energy radiates from
the atmosphere
Radiation from the
sun warms the
earth’s surface
Greenhouse gases are
being warmed by the
radiation from earth
Without
With
greenhouse gases:
+15
-18 degrees!
degrees!
Climate change within 100 years:
About half an ice age, but on the
warm side
Year 2100?
Year 2000
Year 1900
Ice age
- Climate change External causes
 Solar activity
 Earths orbit
 Meteorites
Internal causes
Natural
Internal causes
Anthropogenic
 Enteric
 Emissions of greenhouse gases
 Volcanic eruption
 Particles/clouds
Respiration
 Land change
IPCC, TAR - 2001
Temperature Variations in the Earth´s Surface
in the last 140 Years
Global mean temperatures are rising faster with time
Warmest 12 years:
1998,2005,2003,2002,2004,2006,
2001,1997,1995,1999,1990,2000
Period
Rate
50 0.1280.026
100 0.0740.018
Years /decade
Greenhouse
gases
(has a warming effect)
Left in the atmosphere
for 100 years
Particles
(mostly a cooling effect)
Left in the atmosphere
for 1 week
Concentrations of C02 and methane have
increased considerably since the
pre-industrial era
IPCC, TAR - 2001
IPCC, TAR - 2001
IPCC, TAR - 2001
The Most Scientifical Proof of Climate Change
Increase in Temperatures
Altered rainfall patterns and
flloding…
Changes in the Pattern of Climate
Phenomenon…
More evaporation, drought,
erosion and wild fires
A simplified view of the global thermohaline conveyor belt, showing cooling and downwelling in the North
Atlantic, warming and freshening in the southern hemisphere, and return flow as a warm surface current.
CRDO Penedés
CRDO Penedés
Winkler Index 1971 - 2002
(Vilafranca - Barcelona)
2400
Zone V
2300
2200
Zone IV
Winkler Index
2100
2000
1900
Zone III
1800
1700
1600
Zone II
1500
1970
1975
1980
1985
1990
Year
Dr. Xavier Sort – Bodegas Miguel Torres
1995
2000
2005
Huglin Index Evolution
Vilafranca del Penedès - Barcelona
2500
2400
R2 = 0,4517
2300
2200
2100
2000
1900
1800
1700
1965
1970
1975
1980
Dr. Xavier Sort – Bodegas Miguel Torres
1985
1990
1995
2000
2005
UV-B effects
Possible relevance for grape
production
• Activation of genes of the
phytopropanoid pathway
 Accumulation of flavonoids and anthocyanins
(colour formation, wine composition)
• Inactivation (damage) of
photosystem II and of photosynthetic
enzymes
Decreased
photosynthesis
• Reduced chlorophyll and
carotenoid concentrations
1.Decreased photosynthesis,
2.Altered aroma compounds?
(vitispirane, 1,1,6-trimethyl-1,2dihydronaphtalene, TDN, ß-damascenone)?
 Xanthophylls, leaf and berry energy balance?
• Effects on nitrogen metabolism
 Decreased amino acid concentration (yeast
metabolism, fermentation kinetics, higher alcohol
formation, secondary aromatic compounds)
• Thicker leaves, wax composition
 More disease resistance
• Photo-oxidation of indole acetic
acid (IAA, auxin), UV-B absorption by
tryptophan
 Possible formation of o-aminoacetophenone
(off-flavour in white wines)
• Increase in ascorbic acid and
glutathione content through the
formation of free radicals
 Photoprotection, sulphur metabolism, induction
of enzyme activities (important for yeast
metabolism)?
• Flowering and phenology
 May be affected in some varieties
• Alterations in soil micro flora and
fauna
 Nutrient availability
DATE
PARELLADA - BUDBREAK
28-abr
23-abr
18-abr
13-abr
08-abr
03-abr
29-mar
24-mar
19-mar
14-mar
2006
2005
2004
2003
2002
2001
YEARS
Academia del Vino de España, 2007
2000
1999
1998
1997
1996
PARELLADA - FLOWERING
07-jul
27-jun
DATE
17-jun
07-jun
28-may
18-may
08-may
28-abr
2006
2005
2004
2003
2002
2001
YEARS
Academia del Vino de España, 2007
2000
1999
1998
1997
1996
PARELLADA - VERAISON
21-ago
16-ago
DATE
11-ago
06-ago
01-ago
27-jul
22-jul
2006
2005
2004
2003
2002
2001
YEARS
Academia del Vino de España, 2007
2000
1999
1998
1997
1996
HARVEST DATE - PARELLADA
10-oct
05-oct
DATE
30-sep
25-sep
20-sep
15-sep
10-sep
05-sep
31-ago
2006 2005 2004 2003 2002 2001 2000 1999 1998 1997 1996
YEARS
Academia del Vino de España, 2007
Cabernet Sauvignon – March 14th - 2007Academia del Vino de España, 2007
Cabernet Sauvignon – March 22nd - 2007Academia del Vino de España, 2007
• Reduction in the
incidence of botrytis
and Downy Mildew
due to higher
temperatures, less
rainfall and higher
evapotranspiration.
This results in less
humidity and
drought
Asian Multicolour Ladybird
• A problem in
Ontario and the
USA mid-west
• Taints wines with
methoxipirazynes
• Has entered in Italy,
the UK and
Belgium.
• The south of Germany has been
invaded by Hyalestes obsoletus
which vectors Bois Noir or
Phytoplasma.
• 30% of the vines will be syntomatic
by the second year with no yield.
• Pierce´s Disease is moving west
from Texas as winters become more
mild.
The concept of phenolic maturity
Evolution of phenolic compounds
throughout ripening process
Skin tannins
Anthocyanins
Seed tannins
Veraison
Alcoholic Ripeness
300
15
290
14
280
13
270
12
30 september 1971
260
11
18 september 1989
250
5 september 2006
10
9
240
8
230
1971
1976
1981
1986
Year
1991
1996
2001
2006
Saladié et al. (2007)
Temperature (ºC)
Day of the year
Date of the beginning of the harvest of
Macabeu in Sarral (AOC Conca de
Barberà) 1971-2006
Effects of Climate Change
An increasing imbalance between alcoholic
and phenolic ripeness
Anthocyanidins
Green Seeds
Well-ripen
seeds
Alcoholic
Alcoholic Ripeness
Veraison
Alcoholic Maturity
Alcoholic degree and
pH
Titratable acidity
Advanced
Harvest Date
However, skins and specially seeds remain green
• Alcohol
• Acidity
• Potassium
• FAN – Free Amino Nitrogen
• pH
• VA
• Temperatures above 35ºC:
• Reduction in Photosynthesis
• Blocked production or
degradations of anthocyanins.
• Reduction in acidity, due to
metabolism of malic acid.
• Not a significant effect on the
formation of flavonols – it is altered
by UV-B
• GABA
(Post Harvest Tº)
• Arginine
(Berry Damage)
Changes in Wine Styles
• Many wines will become more alcoholic
with higher pH and reduced natural total
acidity.
• Some wines may suffer colour loss or
colour variations.
• Some loss of varietal aromas and
complexity.
• Over ripe and jammy wines.
• Perhaps an increase in the proportion of
red wines over whites.
• Canopy
management
Varieties with Resistance to
Drought and Heat
• Reds
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Petit Verdot
Graciano
Durif
Lemberger
• Whites
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Vermentino
Viognier
Verdelho
Verdichio
Verdejo??
Management of Hydric
Resources
• RED
Rootstocks and Clones
• RED
Oficina Española para el Cambio Climático
Dr. Xavier Sort – Bodegas Miguel Torres
Dr. Xavier Sort – Bodegas Miguel Torres
• Increased Temperatures
• Lower Rainfall
• Higher Evapotranspiration
• Drought
• Erosion
• Sea Level Rise
• Flooding
• Increased UV-B
• Huglin & Winkler Indices
• Changes in Phenology
• Advanced Harvest
• Lack of Phenolic Ripeness
• Hi pH
• Hi Alcohol
• Low Acidity
• Diseases & Pests
• Change in Style
• Varieties
• Change in Viticultural Scenario
• Canopy Management
• New Wine Regions
• Different Varieties
• Clones & Rootstocks
• Water Management
• Winery Techniques
The number of 4
and 5 degree
hurricanes has
increased
considerably
Greenland and
the Artic
Continent could
have no ice by
2050
Scientists have already
demonstrated an
increase in storms,
rainy periods and
flooding
The sea level could
rise 3 meters due to
melting of the ice
covered regions and
glaciers.
Drought and
wild fires have
increased
considerably
Heat
waves like
in 2003 will
be more
frequent
More than 1000
species could
disappear by
2050
 More effective use of energy
 Renewable energy
 Capture carbon dioxide
from both bio-fuels and fossil fuels
Vino Nº 1