Transcript multi-dimensional security

MULTI-DIMENSIONAL
SECURITY
Headaches for public policy
EXAMPLE:
THE HERBERT BRAUN DIAGRAM ON EFFECTS
OF A MAJOR ENERGY BREAKDOWN (EG,
NATION-WIDE OR VERY LARGE ELECTRICITY
FAILURE)
(Who is Herbert Braun??)
THINGS BRAUN SAYS CAN
CAUSE THIS
• Storm or drought (eg, caused by climate
change)
• Nuclear accident
• Cyberterrorism
• Internal political/economic crisis (how?)
• THINK OF MORE!
THINGS BRAUN SAYS THIS
CAN LEAD TO
•
•
•
•
•
Breakdown of economy/banking
Ditto IT networks
Ditto ‘international competitiveness’
Ditto health system
THINK OF MORE!!
IN SUM:
• Military, terrorist, internal-political,
human accident and natural forces can
cause the problem
• Military, law and order, economic,
technological, and human dimensions of
security can suffer as a result
WHAT REMEDIES? (a)
PRIORITIZING CAUSES
• Which are more likely/frequent?
• Which are likely to have bigger impact
than others (always bigger, or wider
range)?
• Which are likely to have multiple
impacts?
• WHICH CAN WE DO ANYTHING
ABOUT??
CAUSES: WHAT CAN WE
DO?
• State alone or with other
states/institutions
• State alone or with other kinds of actors
• Eliminate, deter, divert, reduce (motive,
target, impact, frequency)
• GIVE EXAMPLES relevant for (i) cyberterrorism (ii) climate change
DAMAGE: PRIORITIZING
CONCERNS
•
•
•
•
Vulnerability/exposure
Robustness - survival, functioning
Nature of (direct) consequences
Seriousness/scale of consequences for
(a) the state, (b) people, (c) the
environment ((d) allies if any)
• Likelihood, number and seriousness of
secondary consequences (dominos)
DAMAGE: WHAT CAN WE
DO?
• Reduce exposure (harden, disperse and
diversify, find substitutes etc)
• Increase robustness (material + human,
objective + psychological)
• Block/reduce direct losses
• Block/reduce domino effects (firewalls,
redundancy etc)
• GIVE EXAMPLES for (a) health system (b)
transport networks
IS IT REALLY POSSIBLE?
• Too complicated
• Needs too much coordin’n/centraliz’n
• Difficulty of relying on others (external, nonstate)
• Constantly changing patterns and priorities:
objective and subjective (problem of
democracy!)
• The real devil:money
HOW TO DISTRIBUTE
RESOURCES?
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
Traditional defence or new violence
All violence vs. accidental+natural risks
All ‘security’ probs vs permanent needs
Frequent or exceptional risks
Short-term or long-term risks
Obvious or creeping/invisible risks
Just for ourselves or for the world as a
whole??