Transcript ECOMM 2008 June 5th

Can Mobility Management
have a Serious Impact
on Climate Change?
Viewpoints by Raf Canters and Jan
Christiaens (Mobiel 21)
Moderated by Graham Lightfoot
(Mendes GoCar Limited)
ECOMM 2008
June 5th - London
Introduction
Graham Lightfoot
(Mendes GoCar Limited)
ECOMM 2008
June 5th - London
Today’s interactive session
 welcome & method (5’)
 short round on viewpoints (2x15’)
 discussion round 1 (20’)
 changeover (5’)
 discussion round 2 (20’)
 wrap up and general conclusions (10’)
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Introduction and goal
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The ELTIS Café wants to boost dialogue and exchange experience and
ideas in small but inspiring groups.
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The ELTIS Café aims to further encourage the exchange of ideas and
experiences in a less formal but still unconventional way.
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To do this, ELTIS organises several sessions at various events where
participants sit together at small tables as in a café.
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Brief presentations by proponents of different viewpoints on the same
topic are made and then two rounds of discussion are held.
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What is ELTIS?
The European Local Transport
Information Service (ELTIS) is Europe‘s
number one web portal on urban
transport and mobility
It is an initiative of the European
Commission's Directorate General for
Energy and Transport
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ELTIS aims to:
Provide information and support the exchange of
experience in the field of urban and regional transport in
Europe.
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On-line contents
 News
 Case studies
 Events
 Links
 Calls and tenders
 User association
 Tools for practitioners  Vote & win
 EU initiatives and policies
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Today’s viewpoints
Raf Canters
and Jan Christiaens
(Mobiel 21)
ECOMM 2008
June 5th - London
A Serious Impact on
Climate Change?
Raf Canters
(Mobiel 21)
ECOMM 2008
June 5th - London
Climate for a transport change?
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TERM 2007 report: performance of the transport
sector towards future targets for emission
reductions.
Previous and current EU policies have mainly
focused on improving vehicle technology and fuel
quality to reduce pressures on the environment.
Trends and projections show that these policies
have not been enough to reach the targets.
Short-term projections indicate that emissions
from transport will increase in almost all EU-27
Member States (exception: Germany).
Technology measures are and will be insufficient
to meet the targets.
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Climate for a transport change? (2)
- The main messages are clear:
 Implementation of non-technical measures,
including behavioural change, must continue and
if possible be intensified.
 If the increase in transport volumes is not limited,
other measures will not be enough to achieve a
sustainable transport system and give the
necessary contribution to limiting climate change.
 Transport
demand
measures
and
policy
instruments must be implemented in sectors
other than transport and thus must be addressed
by policies other than transport policy.
- But messages & reality: different things…
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Let’s face it: transport grows
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Let’s face it: transport grows (2)
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Increased car usage and a reduced number of passengers per car
negate the emissions improvements gained from vehicle efficiency.
The number of passenger kilometres grew every year between
1990 and 2004.
* air +49% * car +18% (2004 = 74% of all passenger transport)
* rail EU-15 +17%, NMS -49% * bus EU-15 +10%, NMS -11%
* cycling, walking …? [wait for sustainable mobility observatory]
Alternative fuels policy is starting to take effect, but is this good?
Market shares of road and air travel are continuing to grow.
Access to many basic services is dependent on car use.
Present price structures are favouring individual transport.
Infrastructure - in particular road and high-speed rail - expands.
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Let’s face it: transport grows (3)
A serious impact? Let’s be modest on the impact of MM
- Look out the window: mobility management is still a niche within
the transport sector and transport policy.
- Considering the scope of transport we often don’t manage mobility,
we manage the mobility others allow us to manage, something to
play with.
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Climate change and transport
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Transport globally accounts for
14% of greenhouse gas emissions
(fuel based, not taking into
account production).
A lot of ideas on how transportrelated emissions might be
reduced, foremost by combination
of strong technological innovation
and behavioural change.
To a large degree these reductions
are offsetting future growth rather
than absolute reductions!
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Climate change and transport (2)
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MM does not target industry or building
solutions. It is targeted at transport (reducing
car use, better public transport) urban planning
(stop sprawl in your community) and policy
(opportunities that make economic and
environmental sense) solutions.
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Climate change might be countered in many
different ways. Most solutions involve increasing
the efficiency of our energy use to reduce fossil
fuel demand, while maintaining (or improving)
our lifestyles.
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Climate change and transport (3)
A serious impact?
- Our lifestyles have changed. Early 20th Century President Herbert
Hoover promised "a chicken in every pot and a car in every
garage."
- In 2008 some are having second thoughts about all those cars. It
seems they should instead be worrying about the chickens.
- 2007 United Nations report on livestock and the environment
indicated insights that suggest that the environmental community
has focused its efforts almost exclusively on abating carbon dioxide
(CO2) emissions.
- Data published by Dr. James Hansen and others show that CO2
emissions are not the main cause of observed atmospheric
warming. James Hansen….Is he another global warming sceptic?
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Climate change and transport (4)
Let’s be more modest on the transport impact in general
- Hansen is Director of NASA’s Goddard Institute for Space Studies
who has been called “a grandfather of the global warming theory.”
- It’s true that human activity produces vastly more CO2 than all
other greenhouse gases put together. However, this does not mean
it is responsible for most of the earth’s warming.
- This result is not widely known in the environmental community,
due to a fear that polluting industries will use it as an excuse.
- The fact remains that sources of non-CO2 greenhouse gases are
responsible for virtually all the global warming we’re seeing and are
going to see for the next fifty years. If we wish to curb global
warming we must look at strategies to address non-CO2 emissions.
The strategy with the most impact is becoming a vegetarian…
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MM as a catalyst in
tackling climate change
Jan Christiaens
(Mobiel 21)
ECOMM 2008
June 5th - London
Doomsday scenario?
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TERM 2007: Transport grows
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Scepticism about effectiveness of ongoing measures and policies
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Scepticism about role of GHG in climate change
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Doomsday scenario? (2)
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Mid-term Review of White Paper: Transport grows
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Doomsday scenario? (3)
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Scepticism about effectiveness of ongoing measures and policies
- Main focus on vehicle technology and fuel
- Trends and projections show that these policies have not been
enough to reach the targets.
- Main offender is growing transport demand.
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Doomsday scenario? (4)
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Scepticism about role of GHG in climate change
- The Global Warming Swindle
- Dr. Jansen of NASA
- Public opinion is confused
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MM as a catalyst
Mobility paradox
Growing transport and failing policies do not have to cause doubts
about the role of MM. On the contrary, growing transport demand
and failing technological measures will cause an increasing demand
for mobility management.
Let’s be ready for it!
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MM as a catalyst (2)
Effectiveness of mobility management
Impact assessment of various policy scenarios to reduce CO2emissions from passenger cars
(Report by Centre for European Economic Research 2006)
3 scenarios
Scenario
Scenario
Scenario
Scenario
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1: baseline
2: 120 g CO2/km by 2020
3A: 125 g CO2/km by 2020
3B: 125 g CO2/km + information, taxation and
management measures
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MM as a catalyst (3)
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MM as a catalyst (4)
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MM as a catalyst (5)
Conclusion?
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Scenario 2 and 3B generate comparable results in spite of higher
permitted baseline-emission in 3B
Moreover: 3B does even better !
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MM fortifies the effects of measures on vehicle technology and
energy-efficient use of passenger cars.
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MM as a catalyst (6)
Success stories
(report of EEA 2008, conducted by the Transport Research
Laboratory)
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6 major cases reviewed
Cases with quantitative measurements on CO2-reduction
Wide scope of measures
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MM as a catalyst
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MM as a catalyst (8)
Success stories
Ecodrive programme in the Netherlands: 222.000 tonnes
Speed control in Rotterdam:
1.000 tonnes (15%)
Congestion charging in London:
16,4 %
Evironmental Zone in Prague:
1.650 tonnes
Freight Consolidation Centre in London: 75 %
Teleconferencing in UK (BT):
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100.000 tonnes
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MM as a catalyst (9)
Conclusions
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Transferability:
schemes are transferable and are already
being implemented in other cities and regions
as we speak
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Implementation:
stakeholder involvement is crucial
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Co-benefits:
air quality, reduced noise, reduced
congestion, improvements in traffic safety
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MM as a catalyst (10)
Conclusions
- Economic benefits:
technology adaptations tend to generate net
costs BUT behavioural changes tend to
generate net benefits !
- Success factors:
implementation of accompanying measures
(mobility management), strong leadership and
awareness raising
In other words: MM is a catalyst in achieving good results for
measures in planning, regulation and economical measures.
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MM as a catalyst (10)
Conclusion
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Growing transport = growing share of transport in GHG-emissions
(from 14 % in 2006 to 21 % in 2008 according to EEA)
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Growing transport and travel demand together with EU-objectives
to counter climate change will cause an increase in demand for
mobility measures in planning, regulation, economical situations
and information. To maximize the success of implemented
measures mobility management, awareness raising, stakeholder
involvement and strong leadership are crucial.
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Last but not least ...
Who has yet to be convinced of the destructive role of GHG in Climate
Change?
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IPCC is formal about impact of GHG
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ECCP (European Climate Change programme)
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Dr Jansen: rebel without a cause?
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Controversial opinions stick out of course, but the worldwide
consensus among scientists has never been greater!
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Questions - Discussion
Graham Lightfoot
(Mendes GoCar Limited)
ECOMM 2008
June 5th - London
Questions round 1 (+/-20 minutes)
1. What are the strengths/weaknesses
of MM with regard to climate
change?
2. What are the opportunities/threats
for MM with regard to climate
change?
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Questions round 2 (+/-20 minutes)
Building on the strengths and opportunities:
 How do we accelerate the implementation
of Mobility Management measures?
 How do we better communicate Mobility
Management measures to key
stakeholders?
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Conclusions and wrap up (+/-10 minutes)
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collection of notes from the different
hosts
the different ideas and solutions are
compiled
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Thank you for
your contribution!
We’ll meet again @ www.eltis.org
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