Transcript Dr. Paul V. Desanker

Main gaps in knowledge and
technical capacity
Dr. Paul V. Desanker
Vice-Chair,
UNFCCC LDC Expert Group
(Malawi)
[email protected]
Main Gaps?
• Depends who is asking!
Climate Change Extremes and Coping Range
Current Climate
Changed Climate
Climatic
Attribute
(X)
Time (years)
Transition period – now?
Coping Range
Main gaps in knowledge in relation
to Vulnerability and Adaptation
• Although global conclusions about projected
changes are of high confidence
• Local changes cannot be predicted with
confidence
• Therefore, adaptation cannot be tailored to a
specific climate change scenario
• Along same lines, instances of weather cannot
be readily attributed to climate change, for
example, a flood cannot be attributed to climate
change soon after it occurs. Extensive studies
required. BUT, this does not impact on damages
and impacts.
Main gaps in knowledge in relation
to Vulnerability and Adaptation
• Seasonal weather changes and disruptions
probably the most significant impact affecting the
most people in the short term.
• Recent changes in rain season characteristics
including diurnal temperature changes have farreaching impacts on ecosystem goods and
services such as food production. Although
ability to provide seasonal forecasts, still cant
predict weather.
Main gaps in knowledge in relation
to Vulnerability and Adaptation
• Major gaps related to lack of information
about local knowledge <NEED TO MINE
LOCAL KNOWELDGE>
• Also need to experiment with coping
strategies and new approaches – capacity
building for adaptation. This has largely
been missing for Africa despite GEF’s socalled staged approach. < need case
studies – learn by doing>
Main gaps in knowledge in relation
to Vulnerability and Adaptation
• Attribution impossible in most cases EVEN
FOR DEVELOPED COUNTRIES. But
impacts significant all the same – we
cannot wait for more data.
• In the long-term, lines of evidence will
make the case for adaptation easier, so
need to collect evidence. Need to frame in
economic terms. <COLLECT LINES OF
EVIDENCE>
Main gaps in technical capacity
• Forecasts have been shown to be effective at
reducing damage. Technical capacity to monitor
storms, floods, drought impacts, etc very limited
in many countries. This is technology that is
available.
• Some of these tools are relatively cheap when it
comes to outreach to rural areas where it’s a
matter of communication <COMMUNICATING
RISKS KEY TO RESPONSE STRATEGIES>
Main gaps in technical capacity
• Inability to attribute specific events to
climate change key to how adaptation
should be approached.
• Basically concept of incremental cost does
not apply, especially given that climate
models predict the same trajectories in
climate for next 30 years or so regardless
of emission reduction strategies.
• The analysis of costs and benefits for any
options is a major gap in relation to Africa
Main Conclusions
• CC has started to happen and we should start to
adapt. Addressing immediate concerns will
contribute to learning to dealing with long-term
needs
• Long-term adaptation required, will be costly,
and requires analysis in terms of costs and
benefits to facilitate decision making.
• The analysis of options and ranking of activities
is an area that needs more effort
Main Conclusions
• Technical gaps in knowledge about climate
processes will not be overcome completely, so
no excuse for inaction.
• Specific predictions of climate change not
necessary for adaptation activities that enhance
adaptive capacity through coping
• Climate change important for development,
however, funding for development likely to
complicate funding for climate change if the two
combined.
LDC Issues
• National Adaptation Program of Action for
LDCs – since COP-7
• NAPA Preparation ongoing
• Regional Workshops on NAPA to help
countries in preparation of NAPA
proposals and NAPAs– last one next week
in Burkina Faso
LDC Issues – the LDC Fund
• Issues at COP-9: how to fund NAPA
activities
• NAPAs will present a priority list of urgent
adaptation needs. Question is how will the
GEF select activities to fund including
which countries?
• What criteria to use to assess eligibility
and ranking across countries?