Transcript Global Warming, Climate Change, Energy

University of Tokyo
Tokyo: 16th June 2008
Global Warming, Climate Change, Energy Security
The Hard Choices facing us
Recipient of James Watt Gold Medal
5th October 2007
CRed
Carbon Reduction
N.K. Tovey (杜伟贤) M.A, PhD, CEng, MICE, CEnv
Н.К.Тови М.А., д-р технических наук
Energy Science Director CRed Project
HSBC Director of Low Carbon Innovation
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Global Warming, Climate Change, Energy Security
The Hard Choices facing us
The twin critical issues facing us:
• Global Warming / Climate change
• need to reduce carbon emissions
• Energy Security
• recent high oil prices are a foretaste
of what may happen
• demand is outstripping supply
Are there conflicts between these issues?
2
Evidence of Climate Change
Concentration of C02 in Atmosphere
380
370
(ppm)
360
350
340
330
320
310
300
1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000
33
Temperature Rise (oC)
Is Global Warming man made?
1.0
actual
predicted
0.5
0.0
-0.5
1860
2000
1880
1900
1920
1940
1960
1980
Predictions include:
Prediction: Anthropogenic only
Not a good match between 1920
and 1970
• Greenhouse Gas emissions
•
Sulphates and ozone
•
Solar and volcanic activity
Source: Hadley Centre, The Met.Office
44
Is Global Warming man made?
1.0
1.0
actual
Temperature
Rise (oC)Rise
Temperature
(oC)
predicted
0.5
0.5
0.0
-0.5
0.0
-0.5
1860 1880
1860
1880
1900
1900 1940
1920
1920
1960
19402000
1980
1960
1980
2000
Predictions include:
Prediction: Natural only
good match until 1960
• Greenhouse Gas emissions
•
Sulphates and ozone
•
Solar and volcanic activity
Source: Hadley Centre, The Met.Office
55
Is Global Warming man made?
Temperature Rise (oC)
1.0
actual
predicted
0.5
0.0
-0.5
1860
1880
1900
1920
1940
1960
1980
2000
Predictions include:
Prediction: Natural and
Anthropogenic
Generally a good match
• Greenhouse Gas emissions
•
Sulphates and ozone
•
Solar and volcanic activity
Source: Hadley Centre, The Met.Office
66
Change in precipitation in UK 1961-2001
Source: Tim Osborne, CRU
Total winter precipitation
Total summer precipitation
7
Increasing Occurrence of Drought
8
Increasing Occurrence of Flood
Source: Tim Osborne, CRU
9
Climate Change
Arctic meltdown 1979 - 2003
• Summer ice
coverage of
Arctic Polar
Region
– Nasa satellite
imagery
2003
1979
•20% reduction in 24 years
Source: Nasa http://www.nasa.gov/centers/goddard/news/topstory/2003/1023esuice.html
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Oil and Gas on Earth are running out
Billion barrels of oil a year
Gas and Oil Production - ASPO projection 2004
35
30
25
20
15
10
5
0 1930
1950
1970
1990
2010
2030
2050
11
Comparison of Discoveries and Demand
bilion barrels per annum
60
0
0
500
0
400
0
0
30
0
0
200
0
100
0
0
00
01930
0
0
1936.553
1937.92
1938.784
1939.78
1941.146
1941.651
1942.852
1943.714
1944.915
1945.77
1946.691
1947.555
1949.098
1949.904
1950.927
1940 1950
1951.81960
1952.819
1953.687
1937
1938
1939
1940
1941
1942
1943
1944
1945
1946
1947
1948
1949
1950
1951
1970
1952
1953
1954
34.761
31.547
36.482
14.011
10.056
3.141
3.878
7.826
8.316
6.832
51.274
56.209
56.699
20.894
16.447
1980
1990
27.555
21.379
28.537
1937
1.922
actual
1938 discoveries
2.083
1939
2.244
projected
discoveries
1940
2.405
1941
2.5012
1942
2.5974
1943
2.6936
1944
2.7898
1945
2.886
1946
3.13
1947
3.374
1948
3.618
1949
3.862
1950 4.10575
1951
4.3495
20101952
2020 4.59325
2030 2040
1953
4.837
1954 5.245333
demand
2000
2050
We need to consider alternatives now
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UK Gas Production and Demand
140
billion cubic metres
120
100
80
Import
Gap
60
40
UK Production
20
UK Demand
0
2004
2006
2008
2010
2012
2014
2016
2018
2020
13
UK Nuclear Capapcity
Installed Capacity (MW)
14000
12000
New Build ?
10000
Projected
Actual
8000
6000
4000
2000
0
1955 1965 1975 1985 1995 2005 2015 2025 2035
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Our Choices: They are difficult: Energy Security
There is a
looming capacity
shortfall
60000
50000
New Coal ???
MW
40000
30000
20000
10000
Opted Out
Coal
New
Nuclear?
Actual Coal
with FGD
Renewables
Actual Projected
Nuclear Nuclear
0
2000
2005
2010
2015
2020
2025
Even with a full
deployment of
renewables.
A 10% reduction
in demand per
house will see a
rise of 7% in
total demand
- Increased
population
decreased
2030 household size
• Opted Out Coal: Stations can only run for 20 000 hours more and must close by 2015
• New Nuclear assumes completing 1 new nuclear station each year beyond 2018
• New Coal assumes completing 1 new coal station each year beyond 2018
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What is the magnitude of the CO2 problem?
50
45
40
35
30
25
20
15
10
5
0
Developing
EU
UK
Japan
Other OECD
Transition
Oil Producing
Pakistan
India
Namibia
Brazil
Turkey
China
Mexico
Lithuania
Sweden
Switzerland
France
Ukraine
South_Africa
Libya
Norway
Italy
Greece
UK
Denmark
Japan
Germany
Russia
Netherlands
US
UAE
Qatar
tonnes/capita
How do UK and Japan compare with other countries?
Why do some countries emit more CO2 than others?
Per capita Carbon Emissions
16
On average each person in UK and also
Japan causes the emission of ~9 tonnes
of CO2 each year.
How many people know what 9
tonnes of CO2 looks like?
5 hot air balloons per person per year.
In the developing world, the average is
under 1 balloon per person
"Nobody made a greater mistake than
he who did nothing because he
thought he could do only a little."
Edmund Burke (1727 – 1797)
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CO2 emissions tonnes /capita
Carbon Emissions and GDP
20
USA
15
Netherlands
Russia
Greece Germany
Italy
10
Libya
5
China
Turkey
India
0
0
10000
France
20000
UK
Denmark
Switzerland
Japan
Norway
Sweden
30000
40000
50000
Income per Capita (US$)
18
Poland
India
Australia
Libya
China
Italy
Czech Republic
USA
Denmark
Portugal
Germany
UK
Netherlands
Japan
Spain
UAE
Qatar
Luxembourg
Belgium
Austria
France
600
Sweden
800
Switzerland
Norway
gms CO2 / kWH
Carbon Emissions and Electricity
Carbon Emission Factor in Electricity Generation
1200
1000
Developing
EU
Oil Exporting
Other OECD
400
200
0
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Electricity Generation i n selected Countries
USA
Japan
coal
oil
r
UK
gas
nuclear
hydro
Germany
Poland
France
India
Sweden
China
Norway
other
renewables
Russia
20
Electricity Consumption (TWh)
Historic and Future Demand for Electricity in UK
500
450
400
350
300
Business
as usual
Energy
Efficient
Future ?
250
200
150
100
50
0
1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025
Number of households will rise by 17.5% by 2025 and consumption
per household must fall by this amount just to remain static
21
Electricity Options for the Future for UK – the conflicts
Carbon Dioxide Emissions
Energy Efficiency – consumption
capped at 420 TWh by 2010
250
MTonnes CO 2
200
But 68% growth in gas demand
(compared to 2002)
150
100
Business as Usual
Actual
Business as Usual
50
257% increase in gas consumption
( compared to 2002)
Energy Efficiency
0
1990
1995
2000
2005
2010
2015
2020
2025
The Gas Scenario
Replacements for ageing plant
Additions to deal with demand changes
Assumes 10.4% renewables by 2010
100
90
billion cubic metres
Assumes all new non-renewable
generation is from gas.
Gas Consumption
80
Actual
70
Business as Usual
60
Energy Efficiency
50
40
30
20
10
22
25% renewables by 2025
0
1990
1995
2000
2005
2010
2015
2020
2025
Alternative Electricity Options for the Future
Carbon Dioxide Emissions
250
25% Renewables by 2025
• 20000 MW Wind
• 16000 MW Other Renewables inc.
Tidal, hydro, biomass etc.
150
100
50
0
1990
Actual
Gas
Nuclear
Coal
40:20:40 Mix
1995
2000
2005
2010
2015
2020
Energy Efficiency Scenario
Other Options
Some New Nuclear needed by 2025 if CO2
levels are to fall significantly and excessive
gas demand is to be avoided
Business as Usual Scenario
2025
Carbon Dioxide Emissions
350
300
Mtonnes CO2
MTonnes CO 2
200
250
200
150
100
50
23 Nuclear is required even to reduce
New
back to 1990 levels
0
1990
Actual
Gas
Nuclear
Coal
40:20:40 Mix
1995
2000
2005
2010
2015
2020
2025
What prospects are there for the future?
Reduce existing fossil fuel energy use by:
•
•
•
•
•
Awareness Raising
Good Management
Improvements in energy efficiency technology
Renewable Energy
Offsets
Good Management and improvements in
Energy Efficiency in buildings will be
covered in Lecture this evening at 18:00
at British Council
1-2, Kagurazaka, Shinjuku-ku
near Lidabashi Metro Station
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ZICER Building
Low Energy Building of the Year Award 2005 awarded
by the Carbon Trust.
Good Energy Management reduced consumption in a Low Energy
Building by a further 57%
Incorporates 34 kW of Solar Panels on top floor
25
A Pathway to a Low Carbon Future: In our homes
未来的低碳之路
1.
不要浪费能源
Awareness
2. 使用效率高的设备
Technical Measures
3. 使用可再生能源
Renewable Energy
4. 抵消碳排放
Offsetting
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Energy Consumption (kWh/day)
A Pathway to a Low Carbon Future for business
1000
800
600
400
O
200
0
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
o
Mean |External Temperature ( C)
Original Heating Strategy
1.
Awareness
2.
New Heating Strategy
Management
5. Offsetting
Green Tariffs
4.
Renewable Energy
3.
Technical Measures
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Comparison of Carbon Emissions from Heating & Hot Water
CO2 Emissions from Heating and Hot Water
1400
CO2 Emissions kg/student
1200
1000
800
CHP
gas
oil
600
400
200
0
East Anglia
Bath
Loughborough
Essex
York
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Solar Energy - The BroadSol Project
Solar Collectors installed 27th
January 2004
Annual Solar Gain 910 kWh
29
Performance of a Solar Thermal System
Solar Gain (kWh/day)
9
8
Solar Gain (kWh)
7
6
December
January
February
March
June
April
July
May
August
September
October
5
4
3
2
1
0
10 20 30
9
19 29
8
18 28 10 20 30
9
19 29
9
19 29
8
18 28
8
18 28
Day of Month
Data collect 9th December 2006 – 30th October 2007
30
7
17 27
6
16 26
6
16 26
Solar Electricity
It is still very
expensive
31
Options for Renewable Electricity Generation
On shore wind
•1.5 MW machine will provide
energy for 1000 homes in UK
66 m
•New machines are twice as big
66 m
32
Options for Renewable Electricity Generation
Off shore wind
By mid August, 2008 UK will have ~ 450 MW of offshore
wind – the highest of any country.
33
Performance of UK Wind Farms in East Anglia
Load Factors of East Anglian Wind Farms (Dec 2006 - Nov 2007)
70%
60%
50%
Scroby
Blood Hill
West Somerton
Swaffham 1
North Pickenham
Swaffham 2
Load Factor
Gulliver
40%
30%
20%
10%
0%
Dec
Jan
Feb Mar Apr May Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep
Oct
Nov
Scroby Sands Wind Farm has 30 turbines and can provide
sufficient electricity for 35 000 houses on average.
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Hydroelectricity
Some countries have a high
proportion of hydro electricity Norway ~ 98.9%
UK
~ 1.9%
Japan
~ 7.8%
Possible
opportunities for
Micro Hydro.
5.5 kW
35
Options for Renewable Electricity Generation - Biomass
Transport Fuels:
• Biodiesel?
• Bioethanol?
• Compressed gas from
methane from waste.
But Land Area required is very large - 10000 sq km would be needed to
generated justr 5% of UK electricity needs.
36
Options for Renewable Electricity Generation - Wave
37
Options for Renewable Electricity Generation - Tidal
38
Options for Renewable Electricity Generation - Tidal
39
40
31/12/2002
17/12/2002
03/12/2002
19/11/2002
05/11/2002
22/10/2002
08/10/2002
24/09/2002
10/09/2002
27/08/2002
13/08/2002
30/07/2002
16/07/2002
02/07/2002
18/06/2002
04/06/2002
21/05/2002
07/05/2002
23/04/2002
09/04/2002
26/03/2002
12/03/2002
26/02/2002
12/02/2002
29/01/2002
15/01/2002
01/01/2002
Output (MWh per day)
Options for Renewable Electricity Generation
Tidal Barrages
Output 78 000 GWh per
annum
Sufficient for 13500 houses
in Orkney
Save 40000 tonnes of CO2
Output (MWh)
700
600
500
400
300
200
100
0
Involve the local Community
• The residents on the island of Burray (Orkney) campaigned
for a wind turbine.
• On average they are more than self-sufficient in electricity
needs and indeed are a net exporter of electricity.
• Many of the Islanders bought shares in the project and are
now reaping the reward.
• Orkney is hoping to be a zero net emitter of carbon dioxide by
2015.
• Even better things are happening on the Island of Westray.
41
Involve the local Community
Even better things are happening on the Island of Westray.
The Parish Kirk, and Community
Centre are heated by heat Pumps
partly powered by Wind Turbines
Waste cooking oil from other islands is
processed into biodiesel for farm and
other vehicles.
Ethanol used in process is obtained
from fermentation of harvested sea
weed
42
Raising Awareness
• A tumble dryer uses 4 times as much energy as a washing
machine. Using it 5 times a week will cost over £100 a year
just for this appliance alone and emit over half a tonne of CO2.
• 10 gms of carbon dioxide has an equivalent
volume of 1 party balloon.
•
Standby on electrical appliances
60+ kWh a year - 3000 balloons
at a cost of over £6 per year
•
Filling up with petrol (~£50 for a full tank – 40 litres)
--------- 90 kg of CO2 (5% of one hot air balloon)
At Gao’an No 1 Primary School in Xuhui District, Shanghai
How far does one have to drive in a small family car (e.g. 1400 cc
Toyota Corolla) to emit as much carbon dioxide as heating an old
persons room for 1 hour in Northern Japan or UK?
2.6 km
School children at the Al Fatah University, Tripoli, Libya
43
In the UK the Carbon Reduction Programme CRed
is
aiming to push the agenda towards the 60% cut needed to
combat Climate Change
44
Elsewhere in UK
CRed
CRed
Chester
Birmingham
Carbon Reduction
Carbon Reduction
CRed
Fylde
Carbon Reduction
Overseas
CRed
North Carolina
Carbon Reduction
In the Future
CRed
CRed
Shanghai
Australia
Carbon Reduction
Carbon Reduction
CRed
Japan?
Carbon Reduction
45
CRed already has a WEBSITE in China
46
Sharing the Expertise of the University
World’s First MBA in Strategic
Carbon Management
First cohort January 2008
A partnership between
The Norwich Business School
and the
5** school of Environmental
Sciences
47
Conclusions
Climate Change and Energy Security are important issues
Effective strategies are needed to explore integrated approaches
involving
• Awareness raising
• Improvement s in Management
• Improvements in Energy Efficiency
• Deployment of Renewable Energy
• Finally, when all other things have been achieved,
Offsetting
Offsetting should not be used as the first choice.
"If you do not change direction, you may end up where
you are heading."
Lao Tzu (604-531 BC) Chinese Artist and Taoist philosopher
48
Global Warming, Climate Change, Energy Security
The Hard Choices facing us
WEBSITE cred-uk.org/
Visit this WEB site.
Follow Academic Links this
presentation will appear from 19th June
Keith Tovey (杜伟贤)
[email protected]
This evening at 18:00 at British Council
1-2, Kagurazaka, Shinjuku-ku
near Lidabashi Metro Station
Low Carbon Strategies for Business
The Experience of the University of
East Anglia
49