Transcript butt-clim-change-ind-paris

The European
Butterfly Climate Change Indicator
Chris van Swaay,
De Vlinderstichting / Dutch Butterfly Conservation
Butterfly Conservation Europe
To a European Butterfly
Climate Change Indicator
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To
a European
Butterfly
Climate change
Indicator
To a European Butterfly
Climate Change Indicator
• 1976: start of the first Butterfly Monitoring
Scheme in the UK
• Now at least 2000 transects in 14 countries
• Every year our European volunteers
count once around the world (40.000 km)!
Butterfly Monitoring
Spatial coverage
• New countries join in
every year
• Most of them done
on a routine basis
Butterfly Monitoring
Temporal coverage
20
18
Number of BMS
16
14
12
10
8
6
4
2
0
1975
1980
1985
1990
1995
2000
2005
2010
To a European Butterfly
Climate Change Indicator
Range expansion of
Polygonia c-album in
the Netherlands
between 1975 and
2000 (Milieu- en
Natuurplanbureau,
2003).
Polygonia c-album expansion
in the UK
Six (out of fifteen)
examples of range
expansion of
butterfly species in
the United Kingdom
and Ireland (Fox et
al., 2006).
Letters to Nature in 1999 and 2001
Climatic Atlas of
European Butterflies
• Climate change poses a considerable additional risk to
European butterflies
• Under the extreme, no dispersal GRAS scenario until
2080, 74% of the modelled species lose more than 50%
of their present climatic niche
 butterflies are sensitive for climate change
To a European Butterfly
Climate Change Indicator
Some of the criteria for indicators:
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Policy relevance
Broad acceptance
Sensitive
Scientific sound method
Affordable monitoring, available and routinely collected
data
• Spatial and temporal coverage of data
• Measure progress towards target
How climate change may affect
butterflies
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Direct effects on the physiology
Indirect effects as microclimatic cooling
Effects on the abiotic environment
Impact on the vegetation structure
Change of range of larval foodplants
Species interactions
Tested methods
1. Climate positive and negative species
Comparable to the breeding bird climate change indicator (Richard
Gregory), distinguishing climate positive and negative species.
2. Shift of species over their European Range
Range change in northern direction leads to a increase in the north and a
decrease in the south.
3. Changes in Community Temperature Index per country
Measure changes in community composition in response to climate
warming.
4. Changes in Community Temperature Index in Europe
Four Butterfly Monitoring Schemes used: Finland, UK,
Netherlands and Catalunya.
Method 1: Number of climate
positive and negative species
Species are considered climate neutral if their expected
change in Settele et al. (2008) under the full dispersal
BAMBU scenario in 2080 is less than 20%.
Climate
positive
Climate
negative
Neutral or
unclear
Finland
35
5
11
United Kingdom
20
4
19
Netherlands
7
9
33
Catalunya
2
68
8
Composite indexes
2
3000
Finland Climate negative
Climate positive
UK Climate negative
Climate positive
2500
1,5
2000
1
1500
1000
0,5
500
0
0
1999
2001
2003
2005
2007
120
1980
1985
1990
1995
2000
2005
2,5
Netherlands Climate negative
Climate positive
100
Catalunya Climate negative
Climate positive
2
80
1,5
60
1
40
20
0,5
0
0
1992
1995
1998
2001
2004
2007
1994
1997
2000
2003
2006
Method 2: species shift
• Composite index for Finland and Catalunya of the 17
species occurring in both Butterfly Monitoring Schemes.
160
Catalunya
Finland
140
120
100
80
60
40
20
0
1994
1996
1998
2000
2002
2004
2006
Method 3: Community
Temperature Index per country
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We expect species to move north
As a result species composition will change
More ‘warm’ species, less ‘cool’ species
Method developed by Devictor et al. (2008) for birds in
France
Warm and cool species
• Species Temperature Index (STI) is the long-term
average temperature experienced by individuals of that
species over its range.
A cool species:
Plebejus optilete
STI=4.2oC
Source: Kudrna 2002
A warm species:
Hipparchia fidia
STI=13.5oC
Source: Kudrna 2002
Community Temperature Index CTI
• Average of each individual’s STI on a transect
• A high CTI would thus reflect a large proportion of warm
species with a high STI, i.e. more high temperature
dwelling species.
• A rising CTI means
– warm species are increasing and/or
– cool species declining
Change in CTI per BMS
8,2
9,3
United Kingdom
Finland
CTI (oC)
9,1
CTI (oC)
8
7,8
8,9
7,6
8,7
1999
2001
2003
2005
2007
1980
9,4
1985
1990
1995
2000
2005
11,4
Catalunya
Netherlands
11,2
CTI (oC)
11
CTI (oC)
9,2
9
10,8
10,6
10,4
8,8
1990
10,2
1993
1996
1999
2002
2005
1994
1997
2000
2003
2006
Method 4: Community
Temperature Index per country
• An unweighted analysis was initially performed but is
biased by the large number of transects in the United
Kingdom and Netherlands relatively to the other two
schemes.
• The CTI scores per country are weighted by the area per
country.
Weighted CTI for Finland, UK,
NL and Catalunya
Community Temperature Index (oC)
8,8
8,6
8,4
8,2
1990
1993
1996
1999
2002
2005
Butterfly Climate Indicator
• Since 1990 CTI changed 0.0142 ± 0,0017 oC per year
(P<0.001) in the four countries
• As a comparison: in the Netherlands the temperature
has risen with 0,0389 oC per year from 1970-2007
• Devictor et al. (2008) reported a shift of
0,0060 ± 0,0007 oC per year (P<0.001) for birds in
France
Butterfly Climate Change
Indicator
• The annual change of CTI is a good candidate to build a
European Butterfly Climate Change Indicator
• It could be extended to all European Butterfly Monitoring
Schemes
• Comparisons with bird and other indicator groups would
be most interesting