Transcript Climate Change 2007 - American Academy of Arts & Sciences

Climate Change:
it’s a matter of degrees...
Energy and Climate Change Symposium
American Academy of Arts and Sciences Stated Meeting,
Rosina Bierbaum, Dean and Professor, University of Michigan October 7, 2007
Take Home Messages
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“Degrees” of warming matter
• Mitigation makes a difference
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Committed to further climate changes
• Achieving the Millennium Development Goals
becomes harder
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Its not just the averages that matter…
• Regional vulnerabilities
• Multiple stresses
• Extremes
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Portfolio Approach:
• Adaptation and Mitigation---integrate and need
MORE OF BOTH
Projected Impacts of Climate Change
IPCC, 20
A world vulnerable to Climate Change
 Most impacts are will be negative, especially for the poorest, most
vulnerable nations. Achieving the MDGs will be much more difficult.
 Water resources, coastal infrastructure, health, agriculture, and
ecosystems will be challenged in virtually every region of the globe.
 International, regional, and national institutions are ill-prepared to
manage climate change impacts. Enhanced preparedness/response
strategies are a global priority.
 Both Mitigation and Adaptation are needed.
– A “mitigation only” strategy won’t work because it’s already too late to
avoid substantial climate change.
– An “adaptation only” strategy won’t work because most adaptation
measures become more costly and less effective as the magnitude of the
changes to which one is trying to adapt gets larger.
The Millennium Development Goals
1. Eradicate Extreme Poverty and Hunger--Halve, between 1990 and
2015, the proportion of people living on less than $1/day and the proportion of people suffering
from hunger.
2. Achieve Universal Primary Education
3. Promote Gender Equality & Empower Women
4. Reduce Child Mortality--Reduce by 2/3, between 1990 and 2015, the under-5
mortality rate.
5. Improve Maternal Health--Reduce by 3/4,
between 1990 and 2015, the
maternal mortality rate
6. Combat HIV/AIDS, malaria and other diseases--By 2015 have
halted and begun to reverse the spread of HIV aids and the incidence of malaria
and other major diseases.
7. Ensure Environmental Sustainability
8. Develop a global partnership for Development
The Millennium Development Goals
1. Eradicate Extreme Poverty and Hunger--Halve, between 1990 and
2015, the proportion of people living on less than $1/day and the proportion of people suffering
from hunger.
2. Achieve Universal Primary Education
3. Promote Gender Equality & Empower Women
4. Reduce Child Mortality--Reduce by 2/3, between 1990 and 2015, the under-5
mortality rate.
5. Improve Maternal Health--Reduce by 3/4,
between 1990 and 2015, the
maternal mortality rate
6. Combat HIV/AIDS, malaria and other diseases--By 2015 have
halted and begun to reverse the spread of HIV aids and the incidence of malaria
and other major diseases.
7. Ensure Environmental Sustainability
8. Develop a global partnership for Development
The Millennium Development Goals
1. Eradicate Extreme Poverty and Hunger--Halve, between 1990 and
2015, the proportion of people living on less than $1/day and the proportion of people suffering
from hunger.
2. Achieve Universal Primary Education
3. Promote Gender Equality & Empower Women
4. Reduce Child Mortality--Reduce by 2/3, between 1990 and 2015, the under-5
mortality rate.
5. Improve Maternal Health--Reduce by 3/4,
between 1990 and 2015, the
maternal mortality rate
6. Combat HIV/AIDS, malaria and other diseases--By 2015 have
halted and begun to reverse the spread of HIV aids and the incidence of malaria
and other major diseases.
7. Ensure Environmental Sustainability
8. Develop a global partnership for Development
1 hour ozone (ppb)
Projected changes in extremes
Adaptation Research is Lagging
NRC Report on CCSP*
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(9/12/07)
Understanding and predicting physical
climate change is progressing well
Declining observing capability
Inadequate human dimensions funding:
• $30 million; lack of collaboration

Inadequate progress
• in assessing impacts on human well being
and vulnerabilities
• in providing knowledge to support decision
making and risk analyses
• in communicating results and engaging
stakeholders in a two-way dialogue
*Evaluating Progress of the US CCSP Program: Methods & Preliminary Results
Adaptation options include: management,
technology, institutions, monitoring, & R&D
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Prioritize lands to preserve
Design of migration corridors
Infrastructure to withstand new “extremes”
Linking of reservoirs to enhance supply
Seed banks, mass propagation techniques
Emergency response plans
Early warning alert systems / surveillance
Incentives / Disincentives / insurance
Assessments should be
policy-relevant, provide
near-term guidance…. AND
identify missing information most
important to future decisions.
Meanwhile, climate-change science is actually being cut!
Budget authority in constant FY2007$
Kei Kozumi, AAAS, 2-07
But, there is hope…..
Among the President’s FY ’09 Priorities….
“So as to better inform policy, agencies should continue to make investments to
improve our ability to observe, model, assess, and adapt to impacts of climate
change, particularly on a regional scale, and to assure the availability of critical
long-term climate data.”
U.S. DOE Energy
Spending
US federal investment
inRD&D
energy-technology
FY1978-FY2008 Admin. Request
research, development, and demonstration
7000.0
US DOE energy RD&D spending, FY1978-2008
6000.0
Courtesy Kelly Gallagher, Kennedy School of Gov’t, 2-13-07
4000.0
3000.0
2000.0
1000.0
0.0
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million 2000$
5000.0
Fission
Efficiency
Fossil (including CCT demo)
Hydrogen (non-fossil)
Fusion
Renewables
Electricty T&D
U.S. emissions trajectories to 2050
Old Proverb:
It is easier to
close the jaws
of an alligator
when they are
small.
ASES, January 2007
There are intersections between mitigation and adaptation…
and water is a linchpin….
Electric Power Research Institute, 2007
Wise integrated mitigation-adaptation strategies
needed!
– Sustainable land and water use policies are vital for agriculture,
forestry, energy production and biodiversity preservation
– Advanced building designs can maximize energy efficiency & improve
indoor air quality
– Renewable energy sources can be a new income source
(biomass/wind)
– infrastructure can be constructed to withstand increasing floods and
storm surges and with more efficient resource use
Conclusions

Past is not prologue…
• Infrastructure, energy and natural resource
management and planning based on the last 100 years
of climate will be wrong

Adaptive Management will be needed
• In all sectors and regions to cope with changing
averages, extremes, and composite stresses

Investment is not commensurate with the
urgency of the problem…
• Need integrative science assessments and serious RD&D
in mitigation and adaptation
Some key references:
Confronting Climate Change: Avoiding the Unmanageable and
Managing the Unavoidable, United Nations Foundation,
February 2007 http://www.unfoundation.org/SEG/
“Climate Change 2007”, Intergovernmental Panel on Climate
Change,2000 http://www.ipcc.ch/
Climate Change Impacts on the United States: The Potential
Consequences of Climate Variability and Change
http://www.usgcrp.gov/usgcrp/Library/nationalassessment/overv
iew.htm
Preparing for an Uncertain Climate, OTA, 1993, Vols. 1&2
http://www.gcrio.org/library/1993/otareport/index.htm
The Challenge: Sustainable Management of an Ever-Changing Planet