Transcript Why conservation needs to think about climate change?

Conservation strategies for responding to
climate change
Dr. Lara J. Hansen
Chief Scientist, WWF Climate Change Programme
Vulnerabilities
“The Arctic is extremely vulnerable to climate change, and major physical, ecological, and
economic impacts are expected to appear rapidly.”
— IPCC WGII TAR, 2001
(c) WWF-Canon / Peter PROKOSCH
(c) WWF-Canon / Jack Stein GROVE
Terrestrial Impacts
• 20th century data show a
warming trend of as much
as 5°C over extensive
land areas.
• The area underlain by
permafrost has been
reduced and has
warmed.
• Ecosystem models
suggest that the tundra
will decrease by as much
as two-thirds of its
present size.
Source: NASA
(c) WWF-Canon / Hartmut JUNGIUS
Marine Impacts
1990
1999
Source: NASA
“Miners have their canaries to warn of looming dangers, and climate
change researchers have their arctic ice.”
— R. Kerr, Science, 1999
Why conservation needs to think
about climate change?
Source: IPCC Synthesis Report 2001
Predicated on four
tenets:
1) Protect Adequate
and Appropriate
Space
2) Limit all nonclimate stresses
3) Use active
adaptive
management
approaches and start
testing strategies
4) Reduce
Greenhouse Gas
Emissions
1) Protect adequate and
appropriate space for a changing
world
Malcolm et al. 2001
REFUGIA - Searching for Cool Spots
map
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Frequency of warm-season
thermal anomalies from 1985-2000
Gradients & Networks
•NETWORK of MPAs across heterogeneous habitats
migration potential
Area protected
in each arctic biome:
27% - Polar desert & glaciers
16% - Lowland tundra
14% - Mountain tundra
10% - Middle boreal
5% - Northern boreal
2% - Marine
©WWF
©WWF/Kjell-Arne LARSSON
Pollution, Extraction &
Unsustainable Harvest
Habitat Degradation
2) Reduce non-climate stresses
on natural systems
Agriculture & Habitat
Fragmentation
Invasive
Species
©WWF-Canon/ Edward PARKER
Habitats Under Threat
Local Threats:
Resource Exploitation
Shipping
Overfishing
Source:BATES
CAFF
(c) WWF-Canon / Quentin
Global Threats:
Toxic Pollution
Ozone Depletion
Climate Change
(c) WWF-Canon / Mauri
RAUTKARI
Source:
NASA
3) Employ active adaptive management
approaches and start testing strategies
© WWF-Canon / Jürgen FREUND
© WWF/ Eric Mielbrecht
Limitations to Resilience Building
Temp. Change
Effects on Biodiversity
2 ºC
Some species lost
Possible management options exist
4 ºC
Many species lost
Some management options may exist
(EXTREMELY EXPENSIVE,
Low Likelihood of Success)
6 ºC
Dire
From Parmesan, 2003
4) Reduce Greenhouse Gas
Emissions
For some systems resilience
building options are scarce and
mitigation is only approach!
Adaptation Options
“Adaptation to climate change
will occur in mainly through
migration and changing mixes
of species.”
— IPCC WGII TAR, 2001
1. Limit stresses
2. Protect habitat
Photo: Georg Bangjord
Recommendations
• Ecosystem-based management
• Protect adequate and appropriate space for movement
• Reduce all non-climate stresses across the land/seascape
so there is less overall stress and fewer barrier to
maximizing system responses, sustainable development
• Engagement on climate policy
• reduce the rate and extent of anthropogenic climate
change
• use examples of change seen in Arctic ecosystems as an
indicator of the need for action
Sustainable development