Transcript In Hot Water - Preparing for Climate Change

In Hot Water – Preparing for Climate Change
Not to decide to win
is
to decide to fail!
Greg Bourne, CEO WWF-Australia
[email protected]
21st April 2008
Mitigation and Adaptation
Adaptation and mitigation
intrinsically linked.
Based on the premise of
stabilisation at ≤2˚C,
optimism!
A crisis period before
a
New Dynamic Equilibrium
or
Climate Runaway?
(c) WWF-Canon / R. MALENKI
(c) WWF-Canon / Nathalie RACHETER
(c) WWF-Canon / Zeb HOGAN
(c) WWF-Canon / Cat HOLLOWAY
(c) WWF-Canon / Michel GUNTHER
(c) WWF-Canon / Edward PARKER
(c) WWF-Canon / Yifei ZHANG
Not to decide to win ..is to decide to fail!
Work for
Global Climate
Treaty to stay
below a 2oC
rise
Keep on as
Business
As Usual
(BAU)
Deliberately IGNORE
the climate
challenge and try to
“ACHIEVE
ADVANTAGE” in a
breakdown world
New Sustainability
Paradigm
BAU defaults to
societal,
economic and
environmental
breakdown. A
severe
procrastination
penalty
Societal, economic
and environmental
breakdown
-1 to 2%
GDP loss
But
possibly a
gain in
world GDP
But with Runaway
Climate Change
At least 20% GDP
loss
Not to decide to win ..is to decide to fail!
World
peaking
year.
(CO2-eq)
Global Climate
Treaty with targets
to stay below 2oC
rise
Work for
Global
Climate
Treaty to
stay below
a 2oC rise
Keep on
as
Business
As Usual
(BAU)
Deliberately
IGNORE the
climate
challenge and
try to
“ACHIEVE
ADVANTAGE”
in a breakdown
world
BREAKDOWN
defaults to BAU
2007
(470)
Limited Climate
Treaty
Degrees
above
preindustrial
era
2
69%
Probability of
precipitating
runaway
Global
Warming**
25%
?
50%
2010
(510)
X
2020
(560)
Firm
comprehensive
reduction
targets
Weak
uncomprehensive
targets
BREAKDOWN
defaults to
IGNORE
Probability
of
exceeding
2 degrees
C
2040
(650)
84%
92%
?
3
75%
?
97%
4
X
95%
?
98%
2065
(780)
Runaway
Global
Warming
Ensured
?
99%
2075
(950)
** GDB rough estimate of probability of “Runaway” Global Warming
5
6
100%
Tipping elements in the earth’s climate system.
Lenton et al 2008
www.pnas.org
A Common Goal for Climate
and Energy Policy
• Meet projected global growth in demand
• Avoid dangerous impacts of climate change
• Use only socially and environmentally
benign energy sources
Six Solutions
1.
Breaking the Link between Energy Services and Primary
Energy Production
2.
Stopping Forest Loss
3.
Concurrent growth of Low-Emissions Technologies
4.
Developing Flexible Fuels, Energy Storage and New
Infrastructure
5.
Displacing High-Carbon Coal with Low-Carbon Gas
6.
Carbon Capture and Storage
Conclusions
• The report's conclusion is that the technologies and
sustainable energy resources known or available
today are sufficient to meet this challenge, and there
is still sufficient time to build up and deploy them,
but only if the necessary decisions are made in the
next two years.
• Yet it is clear that the economic policies and
governmental interventions needed to propel this
transition are not now in place, or even in prospect
in most cases.
This is a matter to which the world needs to give
urgent attention.
Three Imperatives
1.
Urgency. Delays will make the transition to a low-carbon
economy increasingly expensive and difficult, with much
greater the risks of failure. The case for early, decisive
action is overwhelming.
2.
A global effort. Every country has a role to play, in
response to the scale and the type of challenges arising
in its territory.
3.
Leadership. Action is needed by governments of the
world to agree targets, to collaborate in effective
strategies, and to influence and co-ordinate the
investment of the many trillions of dollars which will be
spent on energy developments in the coming decades in
any event, so that future needs are met safely and
sustainably.
Carbon Budget
Integrates to
~500GtC
~400GtC if we do not
stop deforestation
Climate Solution Wedges
How Wedges displace high emission-energy
WWF scenario final energy
demand
204
0
205
0
We will overshoot
Equity and Trajectories
World
CO2 only w/o LULUCF expressed as Carbon
9.00
8.00
7.00
GtC/y
6.00
5.00
4.00
3.00
2.00
1.00
0.00
1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090 2100
Year
Ref: Ecofys South-North Dialogue
Smooth
Ecofys
Smoothed Emissions
(World and Regions)
GtC/y
CO2 only w/o LULUCF expressed as Carbon
9.00
8.00
7.00
6.00
5.00
4.00
3.00
2.00
1.00
0.00
1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090 2100
Year
Annex II
NAII Annex I
NIC
RIDC
Other DC
LDC
TOTAL
AUS
CO2 only w/o LULUCF expressed as Carbon
0.14
0.12
GtC/y
0.10
0.08
0.06
0.04
0.02
0.00
1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090 2100
Year
Smooth
Ref: Ecofys South-North Dialogue
Ecofys
Peak Australia’s net
emissions at ≤600Mt
Turn the Corner
by 2010
850
Emissions
Kyoto
Period
Mt CO2-e
2008-2012
+1.7% pa
750
108 per cent
of 1990
level
650
+127% 700 MT
Business as
usual
50Mt deficit at 2012
equivalent to
A$1 billion
at A$20/tonne
In 2020
625
575
550
“With
measures”
best estimate
2020 Investment
Gate
450
Expected
increase of
9 percent of
1990 level
-20% 440 MT ca -2.5% pa
2050 Target
Gate
-30% 385 MT ca -3.5% pa
350
250
1990
1995
2000
2005
2020 Equity Targets Year
Contraction and Convergence -20%
Common but Differentiated Convergence -22 %
Multistage -20%
South-North Dialogue -35%
2010
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
2040 220 MT
2050
-60%
-80% 110 MT
850
If we wait to make real
reductions at home, we
run a large risk of having
to finance a growing
deficit in a rising market.
Kyoto Period
Emissions
2008-2012
Mt CO2-e
750
650
50 Mt
deficit
Kyoto target 108%
230 Mt
deficit
Better to make real
reductions now, commit
to targeted reductions
and purchase/sell any
deficit/surplus carbon
credits.
550
Stimulate innovation
450
2020 Investment
Gate
-20%
440 MT ca -2.5% pa
-30%
385 MT ca -3.5% pa
350
250
2005
2010
2015
2020
Year
2025
2030
If risk averse to
economic damage
target here
If risk averse to
environmental
damage target here
Not to decide to win ..is to decide to fail!
Work for
Global Climate
Treaty to stay
below a 2oC
rise
Keep on as
Business
As Usual
(BAU)
Deliberately IGNORE
the climate
challenge and try to
“ACHIEVE
ADVANTAGE” in a
breakdown world
New Sustainability
Paradigm
BAU defaults to
societal,
economic and
environmental
breakdown. A
severe
procrastination
penalty
Societal, economic
and environmental
breakdown
-1 to 2%
GDP loss
But
possibly a
gain in
world GDP
But with Runaway
Climate Change
At least 20% GDP
loss