Transcript Simulation of Global Warming in the Continental United States using

Simulation of Global Warming in the
Continental United States using AgentBased Modeling
By Marika Lohmus
Introduction
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Global Warming is a
commonly accepted
phenomenon
The increasing global
population has shown to
increase the climate change
More people = more
greenhouse gas output
What about the effect of
climate change on people?
Background
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No models involving population v. global warming
School (Geosystems) STELLA models available to
represent the global energy budget and change
Similar research done in the Maryland Virtual High
School using just System Dynamics and STELLA
Various models using population in NetLogo
(Damaceanu, “An agent-based computational study
of wealth distribution using NetLogo”)
No national temperature map data available
Abstract
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I will be using NetLogo for the project
Representation of population changes (numerical
and spatial – where they move as the temperatures
and sea levels increase)
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Visual Representation, Graphical Representation
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Able to change variables (such as CO2 output)
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System Dynamics model
Methodology
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Map using elevation Data
Map of the United
States
Two variables:
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Temperature
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Altitude
Two agents:
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Patches (land)
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Population (one
agent per 1000)
Interpolation and Averages
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For temperature mapping:
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weatherbase.com for average yearly temperatures
of major cities in the United States
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Interpolation: linear relationship between a starting
point and an endpoint (python)
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Not very accurate when applied to temperature
Random mid-point temperatures mapped
Averages: if the upper and lower temperature was
known, averaging was used to map out the midtemperatures. (python)
st
1
Quarter Progress
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Current temperature map
Firs quarter
concentrated on just
mapping out the
temperature in the
United States
Much faster results
when using python for
interpolation
Next Steps
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After temperature map:
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Change CO2 levels
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See changing
elevation and
temperature values
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After temperature
change:
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Add population
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Death rates and
birth rates
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Include a graph and
variable modifiers
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Equations from
STELLA lab about
global energy
Note the change of
location of people
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Collect results
Population Agents
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Control Variables:
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Other Variables:
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How high temperatures +
water levels they can
withstand
Income according to
2000 Census
demographic info
Changing Variables:
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Death rate
Problems
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The only issue is time.
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Temperature mapping is taking longer than
expected
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NetLogo is very unforgiving about data errors
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If number of numbers in temperature data differs
from the number of patches, it does not show where
the error occurs.
Only an extensive study of data will fix the problem
If this takes even longer...
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Demographic data will not be included
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May concentrate project on just the environment
Possible Results
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Nearly impossible to predict – it concerns the future
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Humans will move to northern/central United States
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Population will decrease
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Greenhouse gas input will decrease
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Temperatures / sea levels decrease
Populations will increase and decrease in an
oscillating fashion
Perhaps an equilibrium will be reached
Possible Results Continued
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It is important to note that :
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It is impossible to predict the future
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This project only concentrates on what will happen
if nothing is done about the greenhouse gas output
per person.
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The U.S. Temperatures mapped are yearly averages
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The population agents are at a ration of one agent
per every 1000 people