Transcript Adapting social safety net programs to climate change shocks

Workshop on
Adapting social safety net programs to climate change
shocks: issues and options for Bangladesh
Presented by
Dr. M.A. Awal
Principal Investigator
&
Professor, Department of Crop Botany, Bangladesh Agricultural University,
Mymensingh 2202, Bangladesh
Dated: July 3, 2013 (15:45)
Venue: Ruposhi Bangla Hotel, Ball Room, 1 Minto Road, Dhaka 1000, Bangladesh
Team Members
1. Professor Dr. M.A. Awal, Principal Investigator
Department of Crop Botany, Bangladesh Agricultural University
(BAU), Mymensingh 2202, Bangladesh
2. Professor Dr. M. Harun-Ar Rashid, Co-Investigator
Department of Agricultural Economics, BAU, Mymensingh 2202,
Bangladesh
3. Mr. A.F.M. Tariqul Islam, Co-Investigator
Agricultural Statistics & ICT Division, Bangladesh Agricultural
Research Institute (BARI), Gazipur 1701, Bangladesh
4. Mr. M. Farouq Imam, Research Assistant
Department of Agricultural Statistics, BAU, Mymensingh 2202,
Bangladesh
I. Profiling the climate change shocks in Bangladesh
Climate
change
Sensitivity is the
degree to which a
system is affected,
either adversely or
beneficially, by
climate change
stimuli (IPCC, 2001)
Destroy
standing crops
Disrupt infrast.,
institutions &
basic services
Shocks/
Sensitivity
Flood
Cyclone
Gradual
Stresses/
Exposure
Waterlogging
Salinity
Drought
Slow onset but longer term consequence
Life toll
Sudden effect with immediate disaster
Extreme
Exposure is the
nature and degree
to which a system
is exposed to
climate variations
(IPCC, 2001)
Reduce
agricultural
production
Affect
Livelihood
II. Social safety net (SSN) interventions in Bangladesh
Near to a 100 SSN programs operating through various Ministries/Departments, like….
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Old age Allowance
Allowance for the Widowed, Deserted and Destitute
Allowance for the Financially Insolvent Disabled
Maternity allowance Program for the Poor Lactating
Subsidy for open market sales (OMS)
Stipend for drop out students
Allowance for beneficiaries in Ctg. Hill Tract area
Housing Support
Agriculture Rehabilitation
Employment Generation for Hard-core Poor or 100 days
Test Relief (TR) Food
General Relief Activities
Gratuitous Relief
Vulnerable group feeding (VGF)
Vulnerable Group Development (VGD)
Rural Employment & Road Maintenance program (RERMP)
Chars Livelihood Program (CLP)
Food for Work (FFW)
etc ●●●●●
The study especially
concerned to the
effectiveness & scale-up
potentialities of VGD,
RERMP, CLP & FFW
programmes in dealing
with climate change shocks
III. Objectives
❶
To quantify the number of rural poor whose livelihoods is
threatened by climate change and describe the type of
climate risks facing them.
❷
To identify successful examples of coordination/integration
of disaster risk management (DRM), social safety nets
(SSN) and climate change adaptation (CCA)/rural
development in Bangladesh and abroad.
❸
To draw implications for the design and implementation of
the safety nets in Bangladesh and for the coordination
among ministries such as the MoFood, MoDMR, MoA,
MoEF, MoFL, MoWR, and MoLGRDC.
IV. Methodology
❶ Literature collection & synthesise: National, Asian & Global
❷ Collection and analysis of secondary datasets:
HIES- 2005 & 2010, climate maps, climatic data, BBS, budget
document of MoFin etc.
● number of rural poor affected by climate risk,
● construction of vulnerability index,
● analysis of safety net variables etc….
❸ Collection & synthesis of primary data:
FGDs, Case studies, PRA sessions etc.
❹ Stakeholder consultations: Service providers & users from GO &
NGOs Official – Local & Central/Higher Level
❻ Multivariate GIS mapping with software like ArcView GIS
3.3/ArcGIS 9.2
Collection of primary data
Tools
● Focus Group Discussions (FGDs)
● Case Studies
● Participatory Rural Appraisal (PRA)
V. Results & Discussion
Obj # 1
1. Number of rural poor affected by climate shocks in Bangladesh
Due to larger size of population (47 million) &
flood incidence
Due to higher incidence of cyclone & monsoon
rains
Due to recurrent flood & higher incidence of
poverty (46%)
2. Distribution of safety net users by region, hhold type, etc… (HIES, 2010)
Throughout rural Bangladesh 47% poor and 36%
non-poor hholds whose livelihood were affected by
climate shocks received benefit from SSNPs
Among climate-shocked rural SSN user hholds, a
larger portion of non-poor hholds from 40 to 75%
depending on divisions (62% nationally) have also
been benefitted with SSNPs
If SSN benefit was distributed exclusively to
poor it was possible to cover another 22%
rural climate poor hholds nationally
Distribution of safety net users by region, hhold type, etc… (cont’d/2)
SSN users with VGD, RERMP, CLP & FFW programs
are very minimum (in-combined covered less than 1%)
as compared to other programs
The FFW, only the program where no non-poor hhold
was included. So, this program can be expanded in
climate-disadvantaged rural areas of Bangladesh
Dhaka and Khulna divisions received the lion’s share of
Agric Rehabilitation program. This program can be
extended to Rangpur, Barisal and Rajshahi for
strengthening the agric productivity in those regions
3. Adaptive capacity & Climate change vulnerability
● Higher climate-disadvantaged regions like households of Khulna or
Rangpur divisions are more adaptive to climate change stimuli
● Barisal, Rangpur & Khulna divisions have higher climate
vulnerability due to frequent experience of cyclone/flood events
● Rajshahi division has minimum climate vulnerability due to
lower climate sensitivity like flood or cyclone event
4. Strategy/policy to reduce climate change vulnerability
Vulnerabil ity
Sensitivit y  Exposure

Adapative Capacity
Components
Direction of Change
Adaptive Capacity
Increase
Sensitivity
Decrease
Exposure
Decrease
5. Concrete examples in integrating/coordinating SSN, DRM and CCA interventions
Integration among SSN, CCA and DRM is relatively new field where some nations have just completed or
being passed a pilot phase……
Obj # 2
5a. Asian examples in integrating/coordinating SSN, DRM and CCA
Project or Programme
Enterprise
Climate shock
SSN tool/services used
Nation/Refs.
Sustainable Livelihoods
Program & Weather IndexBased Livestock Insurance
Project
Livestock husbandry
for vulnerable
herders
Drought and severe
winter-spring colds
(dzuds)
Community-based
resource management,
land-use & contingency
planning etc.
Mongolia
(Belete,
2007)
Disaster Risk Management
Plans
Losing crops or
fishing equipment
Extreme weather
events like cyclone,
flood….
Provision of loans &
revolving funds to
vulnerable community
Vietnam
(World
Vision, 2009)
Philippines Climate
Change Adaptation Project
(PhilCCAP)
Philippine
agriculture and
natural resource
management
Extreme weather like
cyclone, flood ….
Irrigation & other
agric/infrastructural
inputs, extension services,
weather index insurance
etc.
Philippines
Balochistan Rural
Development and Drought
Mitigation Project
Community
watershed &
rangeland
management and
water conservation
Drought
Creating jobs & reducing
resource degradation
through a participatory
and pro-poor approach
Pakistan
(ADB, 2004)
Sustainable Rural
Development Programme
Watershed and
Climate variability
forestry management and change
Micro-insurance and
weather derivatives
climate-risk management
India (Arnall
et al., 2010)
(http://www.cli
mate.gov.ph/)
5b. Global examples in integrating/coordinating SSN, DRM and CCA interventions
Programme
Enterprise
Climate shock
SSN tool/services used
Nation/Refs.
Joint National Action
Plans (JNAPs)
Socioeconomic
development and
poverty alleviation
Cyclone, drought,
flood etc.
Integrate DRR & CCA
into mainstream
development
Seven Pacific Island
Countries (UNISDR,
2012)
Africa Adaptation
Programme (AAP)
Enhance adaptive
capacity or resilience
to climate change
Drought, flood,
storms, sea-level
rise etc.
Capacity building to
integrate DRR & CCA
into mainstream
development
20 African countries
(http://www.undpaap.org/countries/)
Enhanced Livelihoods Livestock-based
in the Mandera
livelihoods
Triangle (ELMT)
Programme
Drought
Protection, improvement East African 20
& marketing of
pastoral nations
livestock; natural
(USAID, 2010)
resource management
Productive Safety Net
Programme (PSNP)
Drought
Multi-year resource
transfers
Ethiopia (Tessitore,
2011)
Seed Voucher and Fair Crop diversity
Programme
Prolong drought
Seed delivery/
distribution
Kenya (Davies et al.,
2008)
Drought mitigation
through Irrigation &
Conservation agric.
Extn. (DICE) project
Crop production
Drought and flood
Promotion of smallscale, sustainable and
replicable irrigation
systems
Malawi (CARE,
2009)
Vision 2020
Umurenge
Programme (VUP)
Extreme poverty
Drought and flood
Asset transfers,
infrastructural
development, credit &
training etc.
Rwanda (Siegel et al.,
2011)
Livelihood for food
insecured households
Obj # 2
5c. Bangladeshi experiences in integrating SSN, DRM & CCA interventions
Programme or project
Programme Implementing
scale
organization
Targeting/beneficiary level or
area
LACC (Phase-I & II)/
UNDP, UKAid, EU
Pilot
(20052010)
CDMP/DAE
Agriculture; 10 upazilas in
drought, cyclone and saline
affected areas
DCRMA/UNDP,
UKaid, EU,
Norwegian Embassy,
SIDA and AusAID
National
(20112014)
CDMP-II/DAE Agriculture; 5 drought prone,
eight coastal, eight flood prone
and five flash/early flood prone
districts
Public SSN
Programmes/
GoB
National
(1971 to
date)
Various
Ministries/
Departments
Poor households (poverty
response programmes)
√
√
Chars Livelihood
Porgramme
(CLP)/DFID
National
(20042016)
Various NGOs
like BRAC,
RDRS….
Chronic poor char dwellers in
Brahmaputra & Jamuna basins
√
√
√
Social Investment
Programme Project
(SIPP)
2003 to
date
Local NGOs
like SDF,
PKSF….
Improve local infrastructure
√
through small-scale works for the
poor
√
√
Cyclone resistant
housing/Climate trust
fund
National
(20092012)
Relief &
Rehabilitation
Dep., GoB
Cyclone prone southern coastal
regions
√
√
Domain
SSN
DRM
CCA
√
√
√
√
Bangladeshi experiences in integrating SSN, DRM & CCA (…cont’d/2)
Programme or project
Stimulating Household
Improvements Resulting
in Economic
Empowerment
Programme Implementing
scale
organization
Targeting/beneficiary level or
area
National
(20052015)
Extreme poverty zones in southwest (e.g. Barisal), north-west
(e.g. Rangpur), the haors (northeast) and CHTs
(SHOUHARDO)
Food Security for
Sustainable
Household
Livelihoods
(FoSHoL)/ EC
Flood resistant
housing, Floating
gardens….
Domain
SSN
DRM
CCA
√
√
√
Covered 2.6 million poor in
√
Barisal, Bhola and Patuakhali;
enhancing maternal and child
health, and disaster preparedness
Covered 400,000 climate poor
√
hholds with 2 million people in
remotest and marginalised areas
like north and mid chars, haor
areas and coastal belt
2004 Food security and livelihood of
April 2009
resource-poor marginal 20,000
farm households in Khulna,
Kurigram, Noakhali, Patuakhali,
Satkhira and Sunamganj
Flood
Grameen
Help to build flood resistant
prone areas Bank, Practical houses, floating gardens…. for
Action…
poor households
√
√
√
√
√
√
√
√
(SHIREE)/EEP, DFID
JIBON-O-JIBIKA
Oct 1,
(Life and Livelihoods) 2004- May
Program; Save the
2010
Children
Strengthening Household National
Ability to Respond to
(Oct 2004Development
Sep 2009)
Opportunities
Obj # 2
Funding 36
projects
through 33
NGOs
Helen Keller
Int’l, RCS &
14 local NGO
partners
CARE/USAID
in partnership
with GoB and
a variety of
local partners
ActionAid,
Practical
Action, CARE
& ITDG
Obj # 3
6. Drawing implication for designing & implementing SSN in Bangladesh
In all fairness we need a model/framework for Adaptive Social Protection (ASP)
through better integration among the SSN/SP, DRM & CCA domains that may
need multi-sectoral planning within the line ministries like MoFood, MoDMR,
MoA, MoEF, MoFL, MoWR, and MoLGRDC.
DRM
ASP/Proper
integration
SSN CCA
What is that model?
Adaptive research on climate change ISSUE
Climate sensitivity &
exposure
People vulnerability due
to shocks/disasters
Support to targeted
groups by shortterm ex post SSN
(DRM-SSN-CCA)
Risks
Cope/Adaptation/
Mitigation: Climateresiliency/
ASP
Disruption of
infrastructure &
institutions
Immediate relief
by short-term ex
post SSN
(DRM-SSN)
Temporary structural
supports e.g. cyclone
or flood protection
centre (DRM)
Landless/micro holding ultra poor: food & basic needs +
employment opportunity by SSN programmes: saving life
Small/marginal households: food & basic needs + cash: saving
life and starting their own income generation activities
Medium households: cash + input supports+ improved agricultural
extension services: returning them into production
Asset formation, income
generation, insurance etc. by
ex ante SSN (short- & longterm) (SSN-CCA)
Creation of protected
infrastructure, river de-siltation,
rain water harvest by long-term
ex ante SSN (DRM-SSN-CCA)
Rehabilitation of
infrastructure by shortterm ex post SSN
(DRM-SSN)
Immediate
recovery by shortterm ex post SSN
(DRM-SSN)
Proposed conceptual model/framework
for integrating CCA, SSN and DRM
interventions through multi-sectoral
planning in rural Bangladesh
Obj # 3
Selective SSN programs: Effectiveness & scale-up potentialities to CCA
SSN
program
Major
beneficiary
level
VGD
Household
Current
potentiality of
integration
SSN
RE-RMP
FFW
CLP
Household+
Community
/state
Household+
Community
/state
Household
SSN
SSN
DRM
Enhancing adaptive capacity through promotion
of sustainable income generation and
microfinance activities, and household saving
DRM
Incorporation of embankment/polder maintenance,
tree plantation at pond periphery or at barren/khash
land with their proper nursing, compost preparation
DRM
SSN
DRM
Scale-up potentiality to foster climate change
Adaptation (CCA)
CCA
Elevating and widening the road or embankment
against flood, tidal surge or salinity; de-siltation of
dead river/canal which would reduce the risk
associated with flood or water logging; excavation or
re-excavation of pond for harvesting rain water
which facilitates agricultural production in salinity
or drought prone areas
Collection of soil from dead rivers (if any) for plinth
rising which would reduce the flood risk; developing
marketing system of their products, extending the
programme to the other flood prone areas
Which SSN program can widely be replicated for better integration to DRM
and CCA in climatically fragile rural areas of Bangladesh?
Answer: Workfare program like Food For Work (FFW)
How to integrate?
FFW Programme:
Creating & maintaining rural roads or
embankment or coastal polder; excavation or
re-excavation of dead river/canal/pond;
creating/ maintaining irrigation channels or
like other infrastructures; tree plantation etc.
Disaster Risk
Management/ DRM:
Reduce risks from flood,
cyclone, tidal surge,
salinity etc.
Climate Change
Adaptation/CCA:
Facilitates crop production
in climatically fragile areas
like salinity, drought ,
flood, water logging areas;
fish cultivation etc.
Obj # 3
VI. Key Findings
❶
More than 2.8 million rural poor where 1.7 million live with extreme poverty were
exposed to some common weather events like flood, cyclone, drought, erratic rains
etc. throughout Bangladesh in 2010, a good year when no such extreme weather
event struck the country. The figure would account as 3 to 5 times as many in a
year if any extreme climate shock is occurred. The SSN programmes should cover
these poor segments of the population.
❷
The households of Khulna region have higher degree of adaptive capacity to
climate change followed by Rangpur and Rajshahi divisions whereas the adaptive
capacity was found minimum for the households from Sylhet division followed by
Chittagong and Dhaka divisions. The Barisal division ranked intermediate in this
regard.
❸
Households of Barisal division show extreme climate change vulnerability
followed by Rangpur and Khulna divisions whereas Rajshahi division shows
minimum vulnerability followed by Sylhet or Dhaka division kept Chittagong
division in middle. The vulnerable Barisal, Rangpur and Khulna divisions housed
about 67 thousand, 943 thousand and 537 thousand rural poor of which 63, 73 and
52 percent are extreme poor, respectively who are currently affected by regular
weather events like irregular rains, drought, flood, cyclone etc.
Key Findings (…cont’d/2)
❹
About 47 percent poor households whose livelihoods are affected by different type
of climate change shocks received benefit from SSNPs throughout the rural
Bangladesh in 2010. A maximum of about 73 percent climate-poor households
received benefit from SSNPs in Khulna division followed by 44 percent from
Rangpur division, 40 percent from Chittagong division, 36 percent from Dhaka
division, 33 percent from Sylhet division, 25 percent from Barisal division and a
minimum of 22 percent from Rajshahi division.
❺
Among the climate-shocked SSN users in rural Bangladesh, a larger proportion of
non-poor households (about 40-75 percent depending on division) have also been
benefitted with SSNPs. If the SSN benefits are distributed exclusively to the poor
households it would be possible to cover another 22 percent rural climate-poor
households. Thus the SSN coverage to climate poor would be elevated to 69
percent nationally. Similarly such figures would rose to about 40, 67, 63, 107, 31,
58 and 52 percent for Barisal, Chittagong, Dhaka, Khulna, Rajshahi, Rangpur and
Sylhet divisions, respectively.
❻
Among the benefitted households with thirty SSN programmes as mentioned in
the HIES 2010 the VGD, RERMP, FFW and CLP in-combined covered less than a
percent household throughout Bangladesh.
Key Findings (…cont’d/3)
❼
The safety net intervention in Bangladesh with the VGD, RERMP and FFW tools
is SSN-DRM oriented which have minimum scope to climate change adaptation as
the safety net operation in Bangladesh is mainly poverty response. However the
said tools are important especially for disadvantaged women for creating
employment opportunity as well as poverty reduction in rural areas of Bangladesh.
❽
Agriculture development programmes or project in integration in Bangladesh are
mostly DRM-CCA orientated except a few initiatives of NGOs.
❾
Currently operating safety net tool – CLP is found as a concrete example for full
integration among the SSN, DRM, CCA interventions to uplift the socio-economic
status of chronic poor char dwellers to recurrent floods in Jamuna and
Brahmaputra basins.
❿
Among the Asian nations Bangladesh saw the greatest momentum (followed by
India), in integrating among the SSN, CCA and DRM elements into their
vulnerability-reducing agricultural programmes, although the trip should go
another long way as the country is the worst victim of climate change in the world.
VII. Policy Recommendations
❶
The coverage of SSN programmes can be extended to all the divisions to support more
poor in the locality. As the Khulna division is already received the largest allocation of
SSN coverage, the next priority should be given to extremely climate vulnerable
Barisal division and highly vulnerable Rangpur division.
❷
The VGD beneficiaries can properly be engaged to sustainable income generation and
microfinance activities for future saving to promote adaptive capacity which would
enhance their resiliencies to cope with climate change.
❸
The RERMP beneficiaries can also be engaged to maintain embankments/polders and
tree plantation at pond periphery or at barren/khash land with their proper nursing,
compost preparation etc. The trees would not only be appeared as a productive asset
(facilitates CCA in various ways) for future but may also play an important role for
environmental protection.
❹
The CLP can be extended from 18 months to a two-year period and should have to
spread-up to the chars of other vulnerable flood prone areas of Bangladesh. A good
agricultural marketing system is also essential for proper and timely marketing of CLPproducts in the locality. Based on the CLP-concept, some new types of safety net
programme can be designed which integrate the DRM and CCA for tackling the water
logging issue in Bangladesh.
Policy Recommendations (…cont’d/2)
❺
Better result can be achieved through deploying more workforces from
chronically poor households to various earthen infrastructural works in rural
Bangladesh with FFW as this programme exclusively reaches the poor.
❻
The dead or silted-up rivers, canals or ponds and irrigation channel can be
excavated or re-excavated by operating the major workfare programme like
FFW and the excavated soil can be utilized for creating, maintaining or
elevating the rural roads, polder/embankment and other infrastructures which
are quite crucial for mitigating the flood, storm surge, water logging, salinity
or drought issues. The canals or ponds can additionally be utilised for enough
harvesting of monsoon rain or flood water thus salinity and drought problems
would be minimised for a better agricultural interventions in the affected
areas. The venture may facilitate fish cultivation too.
❼
The Agriculture Rehabilitation Programme can be strengthened/spread-up to
Rangpur, Barisal and Rajshahi divisions for promoting agricultural
productivity in climate-disadvantaged areas like salinity or drought.
Thank you!
Cell: 01720 343625
Skype: awal.bau
E-mail: [email protected]