Transcript Adapting social safety net programs to climate change

ToR #11
Adapting social safety net programs to climate change
shocks: issues and options for Bangladesh
Workshop on ‘Research to Inform Food and Nutrition Security Policies’
Presented by
Professor Dr. M.A. Awal
Principal Investigator
Department of Crop Botany, Bangladesh Agricultural University,
Mymensingh 2202, Bangladesh
Dated: November 28, 2012 (15:15)
Venue: Ruposhi Bangla Hotel, Ball Room, 1 Minto Road, Dhaka 1000, Bangladesh
Team Members
1. Professor Dr. M.A. Awal, Principal Investigator
Department of Crop Botany, Bangladesh Agricultural University (BAU),
Mymensingh 2202, Bangladesh
2. Professor Dr. M. Harun-Ar Rashid, Co-Investigator
Department of Agricultural Economics, BAU, Mymensingh 2202, Bangladesh
3. Mr. A.F.M. Tariqul Islam, Co-Investigator
Remote Sensing & GIS Lab, ASICT Section, Training & Communication Wing,
Bangladesh Agricultural Research Institute (BARI), Gazipur 1701, Bangladesh
4. Mr. M. Farouq Imam, Research Assistant
Department of Agricultural Statistics, BAU, Mymensingh 2202, Bangladesh
5. Mr. M. Shameem Hossain, Research Fellow
Department of Crop Botany, BAU, Mymensingh 2202, Bangladesh
I. Rationale
Why is the climate change issue important to Bangladesh?
●
Spatial geographic position, presence of Bay of
Bengal;
●
Monsoon climate, variability in rainfall leads to
flood or drought;
●
Physiographic factors, riverbed siltation, low
elevation in coastal region: great risk to sealevel rising, water logging and salinity;
●
Higher incidence of poverty: poor (31%, HIES
2010) are more vulnerable to climate shocks.
Study concerned to
❶ Flood
❷Cyclone (coastal zone) ❸Water logging (S-W zone)
❹Salinity (coastal zone) ❺ Drought (N-W zone)
II. Objectives
❶ To quantify the number of rural poor whose livelihoods is
threatened by climate change and describe the type of
climate risks facing them;
❷ To identify successful examples of coordination/integration
of disaster risk management (DRM), social safety nets (SSN)
and climate change adaptation (CCA)/rural development in
Bangladesh and abroad;
❸ To draw implications for the design and implementation of
the safety nets in Bangladesh and for the coordination
among ministries such as the MoFood, MoDMR, MoA,
MoEF, MoFL, MoWR, and MoLGRDC.
III. Methodology
❶ Literature collection & synthesise: National & Global
❷ Collection of secondary data: HIES- 2005 & 2010, climate maps,
climatic data, BBS, budget document (MoFin) etc.
❸ Collection of primary data: FGDs, Case studies, PRA sessions etc.
❹ Stakeholder consultations: Service providers & users from GO &
NGOs Official – Local & Central/Higher Level
❺ Quantitative analysis of secondary data: Number of poor affected
by climate risk, construction of vulnerability index, analysis of
safety net variables etc.
❻ GIS mapping on household vulnerability
Collection of primary data
Tools
● Focus Group Discussions (FGDs)
● Case Studies
● Participatory Rural Appraisal (PRA)
IV. Results & Discussion
SL
Contents & Sequence
No. of Slides
A.
People exposure to climate shocks with number affected
2
B.
Concrete examples in integrating SSN, DRM and CCA interventions
2
C.
Social safety net financing in Bangladesh
1
D.
Safety net distribution by HH type, Divisions, etc. (HIES 2010)
1
E.
Selective SSN programmes (VGD, RE-RMP, FFW & CLP): Effectiveness
in dealing with climate shocks like flood, cyclone, water logging,
salinity & drought, and scale-up potentialities to CCA
1
F.
Climate change vulnerability and strategy to reduce
5
G.
Drawing implication for designing & implementing SSN in Bangladesh
(multi-stakeholder approach)
2
getting started…………………….
Cyclone/Tornado/Tidal
surge etc.
Drought/Irregular rains
Landslides/Erosion
Types of climate shock/Division
Floods
All types of climatic
shock
A1) Exposure of poor household to climate shocks
National
Rangpur
Rajshahi
Khulna
Dhaka
Chittagong
Barisal
Sylhet
Rangpur division is
most exposed to
flood & Khulna
division for erratic
rain or cyclone
(Survey year 2010)
National
Rangpur
Rajshahi
Khulna
Dhaka
Chittagong
Barisal
Sylhet
National
Rangpur
Rajshahi
Khulna
Dhaka
Chittagong
Barisal
Sylhet
%Household
experienced by
different type of
climatic shocks in
the different
divisions of
Bangladesh
National
Rangpur
Rajshahi
Khulna
Dhaka
Chittagong
Barisal
Sylhet
National
Rangpur
Rajshahi
Khulna
Dhaka
Chittagong
Barisal
Sylhet
Rural
0
1
2
3
4
Percentage poor (UPL) to total household
Urban
5
6
A2) Number of people affected by climate shocks in Bangladesh
Due to larger size of population (47 million) &
flood incidence
Due to higher incidence of cyclone & monsoon
rains
Due to recurrent flood & higher incidence of
poverty (46%)
B) Concrete examples in integrating/coordinating SSN, DRM and CCA interventions
Integration among the SSN, CCA and DRM interventions is relatively new field where some nations
have just completed or being passed a pilot phase……………………….
B1) Some Global/International & Asian experiences
SL Project name
#
Enterprise
Climate
shock
SSN tool/services used
Nation/
Refs.
❶ Productive Safety Net
Programme (PSNP)
Livelihood for
food insecure HHs
Drought
Multi-year resource
transfers
Ethiopia
❷ Seed voucher and fair
programme
Crop diversity
Prolong
drought
Seed
delivery/distribution
Kenya (Davies
❸ Drought Mitigation
through Irrigation and
Conservation Agriculture
Extension (DICE) project
Crop production
Drought &
flood
Promotion of smallscale, sustainable and
replicable irrigation
systems
Malawi
(CARE, 2009)
❹ Vision 2020 Umurenge
Programme (VUP)
Extreme poverty
Drought &
flood
Asset transfers,
infrastructure
development, credit &
training etc.
Rwanda
(Siegel et al.,
2011)
❺ Sustainable Livelihoods
Program (SLP) & IndexBased Livestock
Insurance (IBLI) Project
Livestock
husbandry for
vulnerable
herders
community
Drought &
severe
winterspring
colds
Community-based
resource management,
land use & contingency
planning etc.
Mongolia
(Belete,
2007).
(DFID, 2009)
et al., 2008)
B2) Bangladeshi experiences in integrating SSN, DRM & CCA
Integration among the SSN, CCA and DRM is emerging in Bangladesh…………………
CDMP is working to select and recommend the best feasible CCA options for a community
through exploring, consulting, piloting and screening the locally practiced options on the
different climate change issues like flood, drought, salinity, safe drinking water etc.
Climate Change Cell addresses current impacts and manage future risks of climate change
and variability at all levels in all stages toward a climate resilient Bangladesh. It facilitates
management of long term climate risks and uncertainties as an integral part of national
development planning.
Some examples for integrating SSN, DRM & CCA are (Arnall et al., 2010):
❶ Char Livelihood Programme, CLP (DFID),
❷ Mainstreaming Livelihood-Centred Approaches to Disaster Management (Practical Action)
❸ Social Investment Programme (World Bank/GoB),
❹ Food Security for Sustainable Household Livelihoods (CARE/European Commission),
❺ Flood-Resistant Housing through Micro-Loans (Grameen Bank),
❻ Disaster Management Programmes (includes several initiatives) (Caritas, Bangladesh),
❼ Livelihood Adaptation to Climate Change (LACC, phases 1, 2, 3) (DAE, GoB/FAO),
❽Challenge Fund for Economic Empowerment of the Poorest (DFID/GoB) etc………………
C) Social safety net financing in Bangladesh
VGD = Vulnerable Group
Development
RE-RMP = Rural
EmploymentRural
Maintenance
Programme
FFW = Food-For-Work
CLP = Char Livelihood
Programme
CLP’s budget
Although the budget for SSN is slowly
increased, however, its allocation to national
budget and GDP is gradually decreased
1st Phase
(2004-2010)
DFID : £50 million
GoB : BDT 100 million
2nd Phase
(2010-2016)
DFID : £70 million AusAid :
£8.235 million
GoB : BDT 140 million
D) Safety net user distribution by HH type, Division, etc. (HIES 2010)
Very
minimum
E) Selective SSN programmes: Effectiveness & scale-up potentialities to CCA
SSN
program
Major
beneficiary
level
VGD
Household
Current
potentiality of
integration
SSN
RE-RMP
FFW
Household+
Community
/state
SSN
CLP
DRM
Enhancing adaptive capacity through promotion
of sustainable income generation and
microfinance activities, and household saving
DRM
Incorporation of embankment/polder maintenance,
tree plantation at pond periphery or at barren/khash
land with their proper nursing, compost preparation
DRM
Elevating and widening the road or embankment
against flood, tidal surge or salinity; de-siltation
of dead river/canal which would reduce the risk
associated with flood or water logging; excavation or
re-excavation of pond for harvesting rain water which
facilitates agricultural production in salinity or drought
prone areas
Household+
Community
/state
SSN
Household
SSN
DRM
Scale-up potentiality to foster climate change
Adaptation (CCA)
CCA
Collection of soil from dead rivers (if any) for plinth
rising which would reduce the flood risk; developing
marketing system of their products, extending the
programme to the other flood prone areas
F1) Climate change vulnerability
Degree of Vulnerability
1
0.8
0.6
0.4
0.2
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Ra
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ah
i
Ra
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ln
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hu
K
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itt
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Ba
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0
Division
Vulnerability consists of adaptive capacity,
sensitivity & exposure (IPCC TAR, 2001)
Vulnerability

Sensit ivity  Exposure
Adapat ive Capacit y
Barisal, Rangpur & Khulna divisions:
Higher vulnerability due to frequent
experience of cyclone/flood events
Rajshahi division:
Minimum vulnerability due to minimum
climate sensitivity like flood or cyclone
F2) Strategy/policy to reduce climate vulnerability
Components
Direction of change
Adaptive capacity
Increase
Sensitivity
Decrease
Exposure
Decrease
F2a. Improvement of Adaptive Capacity/Resiliency
Responsibility
Promotion of
Household
Income, house quality, remittance, microfinance activity,
school enrollment, literacy rate, alternative livelihood
options (handicrafts, poultry/cattle rearing, plant nursery,
aquaculture etc.), on standby during disastrous time with
food, fuel and saving etc.
Community
Awareness to disaster and its preparedness training,
security of livestock and food storage system, cooperative
society, protection of dam/embankment, and cottage
industries at local level like tailoring, bamboo and cane,
jute goods, earth goods, jewelries etc.
State
Road, bridge, culvert, public transportation, educational
institutes, hospital/health service, cyclone/flood protection
centre or boat shelter for fisher men, poverty reduction,
social safety net service etc.
F2b. Reduction of Sensitivity to climate change
Extreme event
Means of reduction
Flood
Construction of strong embankment with adequate sluice
gate and modern flood protection centre, river or canal
dredging/de-siltation
Cyclone
Establishment of strong embankment/polder with
adequate sluice gates, modern cyclone centre with coastal
design, multi-layered green belt with monocotyledons tree
Water logging
Elevating the beels, roads, homestead, institutes etc.
Salinity
Inhibit the intrusion of saline water from sea by strong
coastal embankment, proper management of sluice gates,
rain water harvest
Drought
Construction of water reservoirs, excavation or reexcavation of ponds, channels/canals, ditches, mini-pond;
rain/flood water harvest
F2c. Reduction of Exposure to climate change
Climatic event
Means of reduction
Flood
Introduction of early/short duration (e.g. BRRI-33, BINA-7 etc. for rice)
and submergence tolerant (e.g. BRRI-42, 43. BINA Shail etc. for rice) or
tall statured/deep water (e.g. local aman rice) crop varieties, floating
agriculture (e.g. vegetable production, seedling production etc.),
planting water tolerant tree species
Cyclone
Early harvest with early planting or with short duration varieties,
plantation of water and storm resistant tree like coconut, palmyra palm,
date palm etc.
Water logging
Alternation in livelihood (i.e. from crop to fish or ducks), floating
agriculture, encouraging existing water-logged tree species
Salinity
Coastal zoning e.g. rice and/or shrimp production zone, adjustment of
crop rotation, cultivation of salinity tolerant crops (cowpea, mung bean,
sunflower etc.) or varieties (e.g. BRRI-47 for rice)
Cultivation of C4 crops with high water use-efficiency (hence little
water user like maize), cultivation of wheat or pulses instead of Boro
rice in dry season, introduction of drought/heat resistant or drought
escaping (BRRI-33; short duration 118 days, hence drought escaper) crops
Drought
G) Drawing implication for designing & implementing SSN in Bangladesh
In all fairness we need a model/framework for Adaptive Social Protection (ASP)
through better integration the SSN/SP, DRM & CCA domains. The model should
coordinate multi-stakeholders from relevant ministries like MoFood, MoDMR,
MoA, MoEF, MoFL, MoWR, and MoLGRDC.
DRM
ASP/Proper
integration
SSN CCA
What is that model?
Adaptive research on climate change agenda
Climate sensitivity &
exposure
People vulnerability due
to shocks/disasters
Support to targeted
groups by shortterm ex post SSN
(DRM-SSN-CCA) DRM
SSN
CCA
Immediate relief
by short-term ex
post SSN
(DRM-SSN)
Risks
Cope/Adaptation/
Mitigation:
Climate-resiliency/
ASP
Disruption of
infrastructure &
institutions
Temporary structural
supports e.g. cyclone
or flood protection
centre (DRM)
Landless/micro holding ultra poor: food & basic needs +
employment opportunity by SSN programmes: saving life
Small/marginal households: food & basic needs + cash: saving
life and starting their own income generation activities
Medium households: cash + input supports+ improved agricultural
extension services: returning them into production
DRM
SSN
CCA
DRM
SSN
Asset formation, income
generation, insurance etc.
by ex ante SSN (short- &
long-term) (SSN-CCA)
CCA
Creation of protected
infrastructure, river de-siltation,
rain water harvest by long-term
ex ante SSN (DRM-SSN-CCA)
Rehabilitation of
infrastructure by shortterm ex post SSN
(DRM-SSN)
Immediate
recovery by shortterm ex post SSN
(DRM-SSN)
Proposed conceptual model/
analytical framework for integrating
CCA, SSN and DRM in Bangladesh
V. Key outputs & Policy recommendations
❶ More than 2.8 million rural poor where 1.7 million live in extreme
poverty were exposed to some common weather events per year
throughout the country in 2010. The figure should account as 3 to
5 times as many in any extreme year of climate shocks. The SSN
programmes should cover these poor segments of the population.
❷ Households of Barisal division show higher climatic vulnerability
followed by Rangpur and Khulna divisions whereas Rajshahi division
shows minimum vulnerability followed by Sylhet division. The highly
vulnerable Barisal, Khulna and Rangpur divisions housed about 67, 537
and 943 thousand poor people (of which 63, 52 and 63% are extreme
poor), respectively who are currently affected by regular weather
events like irregular rains, drought, flood, cyclone etc.
Key outputs & Policy recommendations (cont’d 2)
❸ The VGD, RE-RMP & FFW programmes have minimum scope in dealing
with climate shocks, although the programmes are important
especially for disadvantaged women in rural areas for creating
employment opportunity as well as poverty reduction.
❹ The CLP is found as a good example for integrating DRM and CCA which
can be more effective with developing proper marketing system of
their products. The programme can be extended to the chars of other
flood prone areas of Bangladesh. Based on the CLP-concept, some new
types of safety net programme can be designed which integrate the
DRM and CCA for fostering cyclone or water logging issue in
Bangladesh with the aim of achieving a better coordination of the
social protection interventions.
❺ The aforesaid SSNs especially workfare programmes can be extended
to cover more poor in the locality as these programmes addressed
remarkably less number of households than others.
Key outputs & Policy recommendations (cont’d 3)
❻ The VGD beneficiaries can properly be engaged to sustainable
income generation and microfinance activities for future saving
to promote adaptive capacity which would enhance their
resiliencies to cope with climate change.
❼ The RE-RMP beneficiaries can also be engaged to maintain
embankments/polders and tree plantation at pond periphery or
at barren/khash land with their proper nursing, compost
preparation etc. The trees not only be appeared as a productive
asset (facilitates CCA In various ways) for future but may also
play an Important role for environmental protection.
Key outputs & Policy recommendations (cont’d 4)
❽ The dead or silted-up rivers, channels, canals or ponds can be
excavated or re-excavated by operating the major workfare
programme like FFW and the excavated soil can be utilized for creating,
maintaining or elevating the rural roads, embankment and other
infrastructures which are quite crucial for mitigating the flood, storm
surge, water logging or salinity issues. The canals or ponds can
additionally be utilised for enough harvesting of monsoon rain or flood
water thus salinity and drought problems would be minimised for a
better agricultural interventions in the affected regions.
❾ Dhaka and Khulna divisions have received the lion’s share of Agriculture
Rehabilitation Programme (47 and 31%, respectively). The programme
can be spread-up to other regions for promoting agricultural
productivity in climate-disadvantaged areas like salinity, drought or
water-logging.
Thank you!
Cell: 01720 343625
Skype: awal.bau
E-mail: [email protected]