Transcript Landbouw
Trends in biodiversity and environmental quality: Looking forward Jurgen Tack Anik Schneiders, Stijn Overloop, Myriam Dumortier, Maarten Hens, Luc De Bruyn, Johan Peymen, Toon Van Daele, Wouter Van Reeth, Anja De Braekeleer,… Purple Conference 26/5/2010 Energy Dir Biodiv 2010 EU white paper… Natura 2000 WFD Floods Dir Groundwater Dir Nitrate Dir… Biodiversity Sustainable watermanagement Climate change agriculture urbanisation MEA Ecosystem Serv. Looking forward: landuse 2030 Energy Dir Biodiv 2010 EU white paper… Natura 2000 WFD Floods Dir Groundwater Dir Nitrate Dir… Biodiversity Sustainable watermanagement Climate change agriculture urbanisation MEA Ecosystem Serv. Environment & Nature exploration Looking forward… Environment outlook Nature outlook Land use model Flanders Subtitel > Tekst Scenario’s Land use Reference Environmental Quality (reference) Land use Segregation Land use Multifunctional Socio-economics Climate Land use Reference Environmental Quality (Europe) Land use Segregation Land use Multifunctional Urbanisation: Distance to “green areas” for inhabitants 2005 ER 2030 Accessibility of “green areas”: decline Peri-urban areas: increase Chapter Agriculture Policy scenarios for agriculture & environment: - unchanged policy: Reference scenario shrinking land use by 5 % in 25 years growing productivity (tonnes/ha) - alternative policy: Europe scenario: - manure policy: 140 kg N/ha - manure processing at stable prices - lower nutrient content in animal feed - agriculture with environmental and nature objectives Environment Outlook 2030 Agriculture: change in land use > Reference > Europa decrease of 5% decrease of 3 %; Increase AEN Agriculture with environment & nature objectives ER 2030 2005 > Europe-2030: increase in fields with environment & nature objectives Critical load (nitrogen) 2005 2030 Europe > Decrease in areas overrunning the critical load according to the vegetation Conclusion • Urbanisation: increase • Agricultural areas: decrease • European goals demand larger areas for agricultural use (due to lower production capacity) • Stricter manure policy is needed to reach water targets • Critical load: Europe scenario necessary Looking forward: rivers 2027 Energy Dir Biodiv 2010 EU white paper… Natura 2000 WFD Floods Dir Groundwater Dir Nitrate Dir… Biodiversity Sustainable watermanagement Climate change agriculture urbanisation MEA Ecosystem Serv. Manure advice, buffer strips, wintergreen cover Water quality manure decree Costs other sources agriculture companies public waste water treatment Environment Outlook 2030 Scenario’s waterlopen 2027 Water quality: oxygen R 2027 E 2015 2006 Minimal oxygen concentration (mg O²/l) ≤2 > 2 en ≤ 4 > 4 en ≤ 6 > 6 en ≤ 8 ≥8 good ecological quality : increase after 2027 Water quality: restoration of fish populations R 2027 2006 E 2015 2005 Rheophylic Fish populations: sensitive to pollution Suitability : barrier only migratio low reproducttion moderate reproduction good reproduction optimal reproduction restoration reproduction capacity : after Europe 2027 scenario Water quality : suitability for fish Rheophylic species sensitive for pollution 100 80 gevoelig Vulnerable tolerant Tolerant 60 40 20 0 2006 R15 E15 E27 E27 : jump forward Sensitive species: maximum = 45% of potential habitat Conclusions Current and complementory measures will lower discharges into surface water. Fysico-chemical water quality continues to increase, but phosphorous remains a major problem. Phosphorous: important limiting factor for primary production and macrophyte growth Biological quality increases, but in the most advanced scenario only between 45 and 60% of the rivers reaches a good water quality. Environment Outlook 2030 Looking forward: climate change Energy Dir Biodiv 2010 EU white paper… Natura 2000 WFD Floods Dir Groundwater Dir Nitrate Dir… Biodiversity Sustainable watermanagement Climate change agriculture urbanisation MEA Ecosystem Serv. Climate change: temperature Increase temperature: monthly average 2100 > Flanders 2100: +2,5 tot +9°C in summer Climate change: precipitation Flanders 2100: 2 scenarios increase in winter precepitation Flanders 2100: all scenarios decrease in summer precepitation Climate change: increased flood risk Land use changes 2030: % increase / decrease . 5 green areas 4 nature conservation 3 build up 2 agriculture (professional) 1 forest 0 -1 Flanders Valley -2 -3 -4 -5 Valley: decrease agriculture use, less ncrease build up areas, more opportunities for nature Climate change Consequences for marsh vegetations Valley: Opportunities for nature, for climate adaptation, for Carbon stocks,… Conclusions • Higher flood capacity will is needed • Higher risks of drought in summer • Risk of species loss increases • “resilient” ecosystems will be needed • Opportunities for marsh vegetation in flood areas • Opportunities for different ecosystem services in flood areas Some conclusions of the future… Beekforel Yves Adams Energy Dir Biodiv 2010 EU white paper… Natura 2000 WFD Floods Dir Groundwater Dir Nitrate Dir… Biodiversity Sustainable watermanagement Climate change urbanisation Increase eri urban area Decrease area Increase AEN agriculture MEA Ecosystem Serv.