Transcript tfiam27_uncert_landrieu

CLRTAP/EMEP/TFIAM
Oslo, 13 - 15 May 2002
INERIS/Guy Landrieu
Remarks about Uncertainty Treatment
_________________________________________________________
A large uncertainty about economic 2020 scenario…
"Changing Unsustainable Patterns
of Consumption and Production"
Achieving a four-fold increase in energy and resource
efficiency in developed countries in the next two or three
decades and a possible ten-fold increase in resource
efficiency in developed countries in the long term.
Preparatory Committee for the World Summit
on Sustainable Development,
Second Session (Jan-Feb 2002),
Report of the Secretary General
CLRTAP/EMEP/TFIAM
Oslo, 13 - 15 May 2002
INERIS/Guy Landrieu
Remarks about Uncertainty Treatment
_________________________________________________________
A large uncertainty about economic 2020 scenario…
Tackling climate change
Objectives and targets
In line with the aim of the United Nations Framework Convention on
Climate Change, to stabilise the atmospheric concentration of greenhouse
gases at a level that will not cause unnatural variations of the earth
climate… Scientists estimate that … global emissions of greenhouse gases
need to be reduced by approximately 70% over 1990 in the longer term.
Given the long-term objective, a global reduction in the order of 20-40%
(depending on actual rates of economic growth and thus greenhouse gas
emissions as well as the success of measures taken to combat climate
change) over 1990 levels by 2020 will need to be aimed at, by means of
an effective international agreement.
Environment 2010 : Our future, our choice
The sixth EU environment action programme
Commission Communication (2001)
CLRTAP/EMEP/TFIAM
Oslo, 13 - 15 May 2002
INERIS/Guy Landrieu
Remarks about Uncertainty Treatment
_________________________________________________________
A large uncertainty about economic 2020 scenario…
Factors 4 and 10 in the Nordic Countries
"The studies conclude that it would be difficult to reach the
factor 4 target in two to three decades and the factor 10 target
in the long run (i. e. 2050) without considerable changes in
individual and social values as well as regulatory regimes.”
Study presented by the Nordic Council of Ministers
at the 7th session of the Commission on Sustainable Development
as a contribution to the implementation of the
International Work Programme on
Changing Consumption and Production Patterns.
CLRTAP/EMEP/TFIAM
Oslo, 13 - 15 May 2002
INERIS/Guy Landrieu
Remarks about Uncertainty Treatment
A large uncertainty about economic 2020 scenario…
« Every epoch is an epoch of transition.
We know only one thing about the future or, rather, the futures :
it will not look like the present. » (Jorge Luis Borges)
European Commission
Forward Studies Unit
Scenarios Europe 2010
Five possible futures For Europe
Working Paper, July 1999
« The scenarios are entirely qualitative in nature. They present ...
coherent and contrasted illustrations given of how Europe may evolve in the
future depending on the actions and decisions that are taken today. »
http://europa.eu.int/comm/cdp/index_en.htm
CLRTAP/EMEP/TFIAM
Oslo, 13 - 15 May 2002
INERIS/Guy Landrieu
Remarks about Uncertainty Treatment
A large uncertainty about economic 2020 scenario…
Some reference documents
European Commission
Forward Studies Unit
James Robertson
The New Economics of Sustainable Development, A briefing for
policy makers
Luxembourg : Office for Official Publications of the European
Communities,1998
The report questions the implications of a shift from income growth to cost
reduction as a driving force in the economy.
http://europa.eu.int/comm/cdp/cahiers/resume/new_economics_en.htm
CLRTAP/EMEP/TFIAM
Oslo, 13 - 15 May 2002
INERIS/Guy Landrieu
Remarks about Uncertainty Treatment
Uncertainty treatment…
KISS Keep It Simple, Stupid
”(The concept of sustainable development) cannot be put
into practice by a small group of experts and
politicians… What is needed is a wide participatory
approach from the society as a whole.
Sustainable Development can only be truly effective when it is
understood and accepted as a global concept…"
Heinrich Böll Foundation
From Rio to Johannesburg :
contributions to the globalisation of sustainability
World Summit Paper by Jürgen Trittin et al.
CLRTAP/EMEP/TFIAM
Oslo, 13 - 15 May 2002
INERIS/Guy Landrieu
Remarks about Uncertainty Treatment
To effectively protect and preserve the natural environment, environmental
institutions, at all levels of governance, must better reflect the link between
environmental problems and the underlying economic and social issues that most
likely led to them… in an increasingly globalised economy, international
environmental institutions must be able to address key social and economic
issues that may not be included in their primary mandate…
Much of the current context of international environmental governance, for which
policy advice is needed, is one of uncertainty. Global environmental systems are
characterised by non-linear, complex behaviour associated with cumulative
environmental change with both short-term and long-term consequences. Under such
circumstances, decision makers need information about the nature of threats,
how each will be affected, as well as the types of arrangements that can be
collectively developed to address such transboundary and global risks.
…for consensus to be acceptable to leaders… when the knowledge is generated
beyond a suspicion of policy bias by sponsors…"
International Environmental Governance, The question of reform : key issues and proposals
United Nations University, Preliminary Report (March 2002)
CLRTAP/EMEP/TFIAM
Oslo, 13 - 15 May 2002
INERIS/Guy Landrieu
Remarks about Uncertainty Treatment
Philippe Roqueplo,
Climats sous surveillance :
limites et conditions de l'expertise scientifique
Ed. Economica, Paris, 1993
• the word “uncertainty” may hide divergences between experts
• the progress of scientific knowledge needs discussions and
controversies
• a consensus obligation may be counterproductive