Transcript Reducing agricultural carbon emissions

Reducing agricultural carbon
emissions: What’s public health got to
do with it?
Scottish Faculty of Public Health
6th November 2014
S Vittal Katikireddi
E-mail: [email protected]
Twitter: @vkatikireddi
Clinical Lecturer in Public Health
MRC/CSO Social and Public Health Sciences Unit, University
of Glasgow
MRC/CSO Social and Public Health Sciences Unit
MRC/CSO Social and Public Health Sciences Unit
GHG emissions growth between 2000 and 2010 has been larger
than in the previous three decades.
Source: IPCC from www.mitigation2014.org
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MRC/CSO Social and Public Health Sciences Unit
Based on Figure 1.3
About half of cumulative anthropogenic CO2 emissions between
1750 and 2010 have occurred in the last 40 years.
Source: IPCC from www.mitigation2014.org
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MRC/CSO Social and Public Health Sciences Unit
Based on Figure 5.3
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change
• Fifth report (published this year)
• WG1: Physical Science Basis
• WG2: Adaptation
• What will be the impact of climate change?
• How can we adapt to reduce the adverse
consequences?
• WG3: Mitigation
• How can we reduce the magnitude of climate
change?
• Organised into: Energy, Transport, Buildings,
Industry and Agriculture, Forestry and Other Land
Use (AFOLU)
MRC/CSO Social and Public Health Sciences Unit
Without additional mitigation, global mean surface temperature is
projected to increase by 3.7 to 4.8°C over the 21st century.
Source: IPCC from www.mitigation2014.org
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MRC/CSO Social and Public Health Sciences Unit
Based on WGII AR5 Figure 19.4
Health in the Green Economy
http://www.who.int/hia/green_economy/en/
MRC/CSO Social and Public Health Sciences Unit
Risk factors for the Global Burden of Disease
Risk factor
AFOLU?
High blood pressure
Tobacco (inc SHS)
Alcohol
Household air pollution
(solid fuels)
Diet low in fruits
High BMI
High glucose
Childhood underweight
Ambient air pollution
Physical inactivity
Lim, S. S., et al. (2012). "A comparative risk assessment of burden of disease and injury attributable to 67 risk factors
and risk factor clusters in 21 regions, 1990–2010: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2010."
The Lancet 380(9859): 2224-2260.
MRC/CSO Social and Public Health Sciences Unit
Table shown for DALYs (both sexes).
Risk factors for the Global Burden of Disease
Risk factor
AFOLU?
Why
High blood pressure

Agriculture influences diet
Tobacco (inc SHS)

Agricultural product
Alcohol

Agricultural product
Household air pollution
(solid fuels)

Use of forestry and agricultural
residues
Diet low in fruits

Agriculture influences diet
High BMI

Agriculture influences diet and PA
High glucose

Agriculture influences diet
Childhood underweight

Agriculture influences diet
Ambient air pollution

Emissions eg from meat production
Physical inactivity

Largest employment sector
Lim, S. S., et al. (2012). "A comparative risk assessment of burden of disease and injury attributable to 67 risk factors
and risk factor clusters in 21 regions, 1990–2010: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2010."
The Lancet 380(9859): 2224-2260.
MRC/CSO Social and Public Health Sciences Unit
Table shown for DALYs (both sexes).
Mechanisms to health impacts
Mechanism
Health impacts
Environmental degradation
Adverse impacts of agriculture
on environment
Food security and nutrition
Malnutrition: protein energy
and/or micronutrient.
Non-communicable diseases
Obesity and tobacco
Infectious diseases
Vector-borne and zoonotic
diseases; Antibiotic resistance
Occupational health risks
Injuries; Exposure to chemicals
Social & economic determinants Socio-economic impacts and
of health and equity
their distribution
MRC/CSO Social and Public Health Sciences Unit
Potential win-wins
• Dietary diversity
• May mean increasing consumption for some parts of the
world: a ‘contraction and convergence’ approach
• Healthier meat consumption
• Role of red meat in NCDs, water stress and antibiotic
resistance
• Improving crop productivity
• Need to balance short-term gains with long-term
sustainability
• Reducing tobacco production
• Deforestation, soil degradation and occupational risks
• Equity
• Ensure equity-promoting e.g. Dangers of limiting
importation of food
MRC/CSO Social and Public Health Sciences Unit
Difficulties in assessment
• Timescale
• Short-term vs long-term
• Geography
• Context matters!
• Conflicting evidence about health impacts
• Conflicting evidence about sectoral impacts
• Evidence vs Precautionary Principle
• Vested interests
MRC/CSO Social and Public Health Sciences Unit
Acknowledgements
• Lead for agriculture expertise
• Tara Garnett
• WHO
• Elaine Fletcher
• Carlos Dora
• Francesco Branca
• Finola Hackett
• NHS Lothian
• Margaret Douglas
• N.B. The views expressed do not represent the
WHO. A final report is still in preparation.
MRC/CSO Social and Public Health Sciences Unit
Climate change and health
Climate change could be the biggest global
health threat of the 21st century. Effects on
health of climate change will be felt by most
populations in the next decades and put the
lives and wellbeing of billions of people at
increased risk. During this century, the earth's
average surface temperature rises are likely to
exceed the safe threshold of 2°C above preindustrial average temperature.
The Lancet (2009). Managing the health effects of climate change. The Lancet and University College of
London Commission on Climate Change.
MRC/CSO Social and Public Health Sciences Unit
MRC/CSO Social and Public Health Sciences Unit
Climate change and health
Effects of climate change on health will affect most
populations in the next decades and put the lives and
wellbeing of billions of people at increased risk. During this
century, earth’s average surface temperature rises are likely
to exceed the safe threshold of 2°C above preindustrial
average temperature.[...] Although vector-borne diseases will
expand their reach and death tolls, especially among elderly
people, will increase because of heatwaves, the indirect
effects of climate change on water, food security, and extreme
climatic events are likely to have the biggest effect on global
health.
Costello, A., et al. "Managing the health effects of climate change: Lancet and University College London
Institute for Global Health Commission." The Lancet 373(9676): 1693-1733.
MRC/CSO Social and Public Health Sciences Unit