Transcript Keynote Address: NOAA, GEOSS, and Cal/Val

Keynote Address: NOAA,
GEOSS, and Cal/Val
Mary Kicza
Deputy Assistant Administrator for
Satellite and Information Services
National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
Workshop on Achieving Satellite Instrument Calibration
for Climate Change
National Conference Center
Lansdowne, VA
May 16, 2006
NOAA and Its Satellite Program
NOAA’s Mission
• To describe and
predict changes in the
Earth’s environment.
• To conserve and
manage the Nation’s
coastal and marine
resources to ensure
sustainable economic
opportunities.
NOAA’s Programs and Goals
NOAA Data and Information are
Essential for…
Hazards, Severe
Weather, Watches,
Warnings
Ocean
Climate
Transportation
Defense
Industry
Agriculture
Commerce
Environmental
Monitoring
Has Observing Instruments On
Land, Ocean, Air, And Space
Space-Based
OceanBased
LandBased
Air-Based
Makes Nautical Charts
Provides Aerial Surveys and Navigation
Response to Survey Channels for Debris
Hurricane Katrina
Monitors the Population of
Endangered Species and
Stellar Seal Lion
Provides Support to FAA for
Volcanic Ash Alerts
NOAA-15 color enhanced image
El Niño Forecasts
Localized Changes In Ocean
Temperatures (El Niño) Have A Major
Impact On Climate And Weather
NOAA’s El Niño Forecast Resulted In
Worldwide Agricultural Benefits Of At Least
$450 Million
Improved El Niño Forecasts Benefit U.S. Agriculture An
Estimated $265 - $300 Million Annually
Floods Account For $5.2 Billion In
Damages, And Average Over 80 Deaths Per
Year
Hurricanes Cause an Average of $5.1
Billion In Damages, And 20 Deaths Per
Year
Hurricane Isabel Left 27 Dead In 7 States
And 3.3 Million People Without Electrical
Power
NOAA Satellites
View smoke plumes
From World Trade Center
September 11, 2001
NOAA polar satellite image
At 5 pm EDT 9/11 showing plume
GOES captured the plume
Within minutes of the incident
NOAA’s Operational Environmental
Satellites
NOAA provides an OPERATIONAL remote sensing capability for
acquiring and disseminating GLOBAL and regional imagery and
measurements of the environment, including METEOROLOGICAL,
CLIMATIC, OCEANOGRAPHIC, SOLAR-GEOPHYSICAL, and HAZARDS
data, in support of the NOAA mission and the benefit of the Nation.
An End-to-End Responsibility
Requirements
& Planning
Real-Time
Product
Development
Acquisition
Archive &
Access
Launch
Assessments
Command &
Control
User Services
National Investment
The U. S. has made and
continues to make
investments in civil
operational satellites
observing systems.
Such systems allow us to
describe
understand
forecast
assess
the earth and its environment
NOAA Programs that Support
Monitoring the Earth-Climate System
•
Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellites (GOES)
and GOES-R
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Polar-Orbiting Operational Environmental Satellite (POES)
•
National Polar-orbiting Operational Environmental Satellite
System (NPOESS)
• Processing/distribution of non-NOAA satellite data
– DMSP, International geostationary satellites, QuikSCAT,
TOPEX, ERS-2, EOS Terra and Aqua, SeaWIFS
•
Environmental Data Management
– National Climatic Data Center
– National Oceanographic Data Center
– National Geophysical Data Center
•
Applications Research and Development
•
Joint NOAA/NASA/DoD Satellite Data Assimilation Center
Atmospheric Products: Examples
Winds
Rain Rate
Total Water Vapor
Ozone
Temperature 500 mb
Aerosol Optical Thickness
Ocean Products: Examples
SST Anomalies
Hot Spots: Potential Coral Bleaching
TOPEX Sea Level
QuikSCAT Winds
Sea WIFS Ocean Color
Land Surface Products:
Examples
Vegetation Health
Quebec
Fires/Smoke
Snow
Solar Radiation
Global Lights/Fires
Satellite Continuity
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Local Equatorial Crossing Time
Polar
0530
NPOESS
DMSP
WindSat
0730
NPOESS
DMSP
METOP
POES
Terra
1030
NPP
1330
C2 orNPOESS
C1
POES
Aqua
Geostationary
GOES – R Series
GOES
Meteosat
Meteosat 2nd Generation
GIFTS/IOMI ?
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GEOSS: A System of
Systems
Attributes of an Integrated Global
Observing System
Comprehensive
Global
U.S. GOES
Integrated
Sustained
India INSAT
President’s Statement
Our cooperation will
enable us to develop the
capability to predict
droughts, prepare for
weather emergencies,
plan and protect crops,
manage coastal areas
and fisheries, and
monitor air quality
Group on Earth Observations
(GEO)
• Membership open to all countries
– 60 countries (including the EC) are now
represented
• International organizations are participants
– 43 organizations are now represented
• Organized into 5 subgroups
• Established GEO Secretariat
• Established Implementation Plan Task Team
GEO Moves Forward
Working Towards Implementation of the Global Observation System of Systems
(GEOSS)
Received approval for formal GEO organization and 10-year
implementation plan
Held GEO-I in May 2005, and GEO-II in December 2005
New GEO Secretariat Director, Jose Achache
Agreed to 2006 Work Plan and adopted a budget
Formally created GEO Committees
GEONETCast as tangible near term project to implement
GEOSS
US announced intention to move GOES satellite over South
America to help offset lack of sounder data in that region
Global Earth Observation
System of Systems
Integrated Observations & Data Management
Intercalibration of foreign and domestic satellites is fundamental to GEOSS
Societal Benefit Areas
1. Improve Weather Forecasting
2. Reduce Loss of Life and Property from Disasters
3. Protect and Monitor Our Ocean Resources
4. Understand, Assess, Predict, Mitigate, and Adapt to
Climate Variability and Change
5. Support Sustainable Agriculture and Combat Land
Degradation
6. Understand the Effect of Environmental Factors on
Human Health and Well-Being
7. Develop the Capacity to Make Ecological Forecasts
8. Protect and Monitor Water Resources
9. Monitor and Manage Energy Resources
Importance of Cal/Val
and Next Steps
Satellite Observations Have
Contributed to More Accurate
Weather Forecasts
•
•
Southern Hemisphere
forecasts are now as accurate
as NH forecasts
Today’s 5-day forecasts as
accurate as 3-day forecasts 25
years ago
• BUT …..forecast centers
•
remove satellite biases
approximately and empirically
Improved calibration and
intercalibration can be
expected to lead to further
gains in forecast accuracy
ECMWF
Satellite Observations Have Contributed to
Improved Monitoring of Global Climate
Change
One Example:
MSU Tropospheric Temp Anomaly (C) (U. Alabama)
May 3, 2006
Federal Study Finds Accord on Warming
By ANDREW C. REVKIN
A scientific study commissioned by the Bush
administration concluded yesterday that the
lower atmosphere was indeed growing
warmer ……
Above conclusion based on careful analyses
of NOAA’s MSU observations (one
analysis is shown on right)
But enormous challenges remain in
monitoring global climate change
Challenges in Monitoring Global
Climate Change from Space
• Need to construct time series
by stitching together
observations of many satellites
• Extremely small signals
Total Solar Irradiance
(Wilson, 03)
– Atmospheric temperature
trends as small as 0.1
C/decade
– Ozone changes as little as
1%/decade
– Variations in the sun’s output
as tiny as -0.02%/decade
• Different analyses of
observations vary from:
-0.023 to +0.25 W/m2
• Good calibration and
intercalibration are crucial
(After Frohlich)
• NOAA’s AVHRRs have been
used to construct a time series
of Vegetation Index that
indicates a greening Earth –
but we don’t know if this is
really happening because of
uncertainties in calibration and
intercalibration of the different
satellites
Equator Crossing Time
Is the Earth Greening?
• Good calibration and
intercalibration are crucial
Pinatubo
eruption
(After Heidinger)
Next Steps: NOAA/NIST Initiative in
Satellite Calibration and Intercalibration
•
A Government program is needed to assure instruments meet specification and prelaunch tests are traceable to SI standards, and the on-orbit satellite instrument
observations are well calibrated and validated by means of careful analysis of
instrument performance, satellite intercalibration and validation with reference sites
•
On-orbit validation is needed for foreign satellite instruments to meet GEOSS
objectives
•
Inadequate calibration can result in economic benefit losses in the billion dollar range.
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Degraded climate trends and projections
Degraded weather forecasts
Degraded ocean and coastal ecosystems assessments
Degraded hazard support information (fires, flash floods, droughts)
Benefits of improved calibration/intercalibration
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Independent confirmation to ensure instruments meet specifications.
Independent recommendations for corrective actions
Better calibrated satellite observations for ecosystems, climate and weather applications
•
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Resulting in improved information for society
Fundamental prerequisite for an Integrated Global Earth Observing Systems of
Systems (GEOSS)
–
Need to properly characterize and minimize observational errors before information can be
used in Earth System Models.
Next Steps: Global Space-based
Inter-Calibration System (GSICS)
• GSICS: A new World Meteorological Organization
(WMO) program
• Overarching Goal: Ensure the comparability of satellite
measurements provided at different times, by different
instruments under the responsibility of different satellite
operators
• Participants: WMO, satellite agencies, national
standards institutes, national data centers, major NWP
centers, and national research laboratories
• NOAA is taking a leading role
Next Steps: ASIC3 National Roadmap
• By developing a National
Roadmap for improving
satellite instrument
calibration and
intercalibration, this
workshop will advance
the nation’s ability to
monitor, understand and
predict our natural
environment
• Best wishes for a
successful Workshop