Transcript An Approach to Assessing Agricultural Crop Adaption

An Approach to Assessing
Agricultural Crop Adaption
The Climate IS Changing
How do we adapt?
Greg Gaston
Matt Wilson
University of North Alabama
http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/oa/climate/research/2006/aug/aug06.html
Earth's climate pattern is now
being put at risk by humankind's
actions, Gore said. "We face what
I think should be described as a
full-scale planetary emergency."
While aware such a phrase sounds
shrill to many ears, Gore added
that "unfortunately, I believe it is
exactly dead-on accurate."
Gore cited increases in carbon
dioxide, the thickening of the
atmospheric blanket enveloping
Earth, rising sea levels and the
increased acidification of the
world’s oceans that could
completely disrupt the marine
food chain.
"We have a climate crisis," Gore
said.
http://www.space.com/news/061026_
gore_space.html
1990
Elliott Glacier
Mt. Hood, Oregon
2006
On the other hand….
1876-2006 Mean Annual Temperature Time Series
Station: KALAMAZOO, MI
(from the United States Historical Climatology Network dataset)
Warming on the Martian Surface is
causing that planet's ice caps to shrink.
Nature June 1999
Graph of CO2, temperature, and dust concentration measured from the
Vostok, Antarctica ice core as reported by Petit et al., 1999
If you want to
make a point,
why show all
the data?
Lets just show
the data that
supports our
arguments!
THE HOLOCENE
From Petit et. al. 1999
“A striking feature of the Vostok ...record is that the Holocene, which has already
lasted for 11kyr, is by far the longest stable warm period recorded in Antarctica during
the last 420 kyr.”
Climate and Agriculture
Assumptions:
 Agricultural crops are grown where they are
best adapted to grow.
 By examining the core of a commercial crop
producing area it should be possible to define
the climatic limits for ‘commercial production’
 Commercial production is very different from
the biological limits of a particular species.
The traditional “corn belt’
Agricultural Production Statistics
(Corn Production/Total Agricultural Land by county)
Climate Data
 Using climate station data, a surface was
interpolated for the areas between the data
points.(Basic IDW surface generation within
ArcMap)
 The climatic stations within the core
commercial production area were used to
define the central tendency for the
commercial core area.
 The climatic factors as defined in the
commercial core were ‘adjusted’ to assess
the impact of a potential climate change.
Climate Stations
Frost Free Period
 The number of days between killing frosts
Growing Degree Days
 An index designed to make it possible to
compare the number of days above a
specified minimum temperature.
 For corn, the threshold is 50 degrees F.
Findings
 According to the available data, the climate patterns
on this planet are highly variable. The last few
thousand years of stability appear to be an anomaly.
To plan for a stable climate and to assume that
current conditions represent the ‘best’ climate is pure
foolishness and hubris.
 This method appears to be a viable approach to
assessing the potential patterns of adaptation that will
accompany climate change.
 It is not possible to test these findings until the
climate does change.
Next steps in research
 Utilize station statistics to estimate climate
change.
 In a given climate, there is variability … rather
than use model estimates… we believe it
would make more sense to utilize the
statistics from a stations to model the
changing climate.
 e.g. the Mean Frost Free period for the 45%
core commercial corn production area is 161
days with a Standard Deviation of 13 days.
“
Statistics: the basis for understanding climate.
 Rather than relying on GCM modeling to
predict shifts in climate, we can simply use
the station statistics to generate hypothetical
‘new’ climate conditions.
 The climate conditions we are using are ‘real’,
we are simply assuming a shift in the
distribution of conditions towards a new
mean.
 We can both warm and cool the climate and
assess the potential impact of shifting
climates.