Transcript Climate Research – a type of physics?

Climate Research –
a type of physics?
Hans von Storch
Helmholtz Zentrum Geesthacht,
Institute of Coastal Research, Geesthacht
CLISAP Klimacampus, Hamburg University
SICCS OE, 11 October 2011, Hamburg
Overview
• Climate Research – history
• Physics of Climate
• Problems – independence, experiments,
inhomogeneity of data, parameterizations
• Postnormality – high uncertainty, high stakes
• The knowledge market
Overview
• Climate Research – history
• Physics of Climate
• Problems – independence, experiments,
inhomogeneity of data, parameterizations
• Postnormality – high uncertainty, high stakes
• The knowledge market
Climate research – history
• Anthropocentric view – climate
determines living conditions;
• Climatic determinism
• Physics of atmosphere and of
ocean
• Physics of climate
• Climate change – climate
constrains living conditions
Alexander von Humboldt (1769–1859) Cosmos, A
Sketch of a Physical Description of the Universe, 1845
“The term climate, taken in its most general sense, indicates
all the changes in the atmosphere, which sensibly affect our
organs, as temperature, humidity, variations in the
barometrical pressure, the calm state of the air or the action
of varying winds, the amount of electric tension, the purity of
the atmosphere or its admixture with more or less noxious
gaseous exhalations, and, finally, the degree of ordinary
transparency and clearness of the sky, which is not only
important with respect to the increased radiation from the
earth, the organic development of plants, and the ripening of
fruits, but also with reference to its influence on the feelings
and mental condition of men”.
Climatic determinism
Ellsworth Huntington
1876–1947
climatic energy
of Yale University
civilization
Atmospheric and
oceanic dynamics
Climate physics
Climate change –
climate constrains living conditions
policies
mitigation, adaptation costs
after Hasselmann, 1990
Overview
• Climate Research – history
• Physics of Climate
• Problems – independence, experiments,
inhomogeneity of data, parameterizations
• Postnormality– high uncertainty, high stakes
• The knowledge market
Global temperature
derived from thermometer
data (CRU)
Explaining global mean surface air temperature
Nur natürliche
Faktoren
Auch menschgemachte
Treibhausgase
Messungen
IPCC 2007
Scenarios, not predictions
Overview
• Climate Research – history
• Physics of Climate
• Problems – independence, experiments,
inhomogeneity of data, parameterizations
• Postnormality – high uncertainty, high stakes
• The knowledge market
The space-and time-scales of atmospheric and oceanic
dynamics
Problems
• All data are dependent on each other; maybe every
30 years, or so, we are able to observe a new
somewhat independent realization of the climate
system.
• Only one world, thus truly independent data for
falsifying hypotheses is generated at very slow
pace.
• Real experiments hardly possible (except for in
models as virtual realities)
• Reliance on past data – instrumental and indirect
(proxy)
• Parameterizations needed in modelling.
Representativity of near surface wind
speed measurements
• Causes of
inhomogenities:
• Changes in
– Instruments
1.25 – Sampling frequencies
m/s
– Measuring units
– Environments (e.g.
trees, buildings)
– Location
Station
relocations
(Dotted lines)
J. Lindenberg, 2010
Representativity of near surface wind
speed measurements
J. Lindenberg, 2010
Historical data - inhomogeneity
Counting storms in weather maps – steady increase of NE
Atlantic storms since the 1930s ….
atmosphere
Need for parametrising the effect of
non-resolved dynamics on the
resolved dynamics.
e.g., by specifying the expected
effect due to small-scale dynamics
conditional upon the large scale
(resolved) state.
Alternative: choose randomly an
effect observed under the given
large-scale state.
Dynamical processes in a global atmospheric
general circulation model
The limit x0 is not defined for
parameterizations; there is no known
limiting equations.
This part is called physics in the slang of atmospheric and oceanic
scientists (as opposed to the revolved dynamics).
Overview
• Climate Research – history
• Physics of Climate
• Problems – independence, experiments,
inhomogeneity of data, parameterizations
• Postnormality – high uncertainty, high stakes
• The knowledge market
In the linear model:
•
•
•
•
Science clarifies the dynamics of the system,
prepares forecast conditional upon societal measures,
recommends optimal societal solutions.
Only problem is to convey the scientific knowledge
into society,
• which needs to be educated about the facts, taught
about the issues.
• Failure of society to act reflects failure of education
by scientists.
Postnormal science
Jerry Ravetz, Silvio
Funtovicz, 1986 and earlier
facts uncertain: e.g. sensitivity
of global mean temperature to
doubling of CO2 concentration
State of science, when facts
uncertain, values in dispute,
stakes high and decisions
urgent.
values in dispute, e.g., do we
cement the world according to
our present preferences or do
we accept a generationally
dynamical development?
In this state, science is not
only done for reasons for
curiosity but is asked for
as support for
preconceived value-based
agendas.
stakes high, e.g., costs for reorganizing global energy
market and future damages
decisions urgent, e.g., to be
efficient, re-organization of
e.g., traffic must be begun now.
policies
mitigation, adaptation costs
Overview
• Climate Research – history
• Physics of Climate
• Problems – independence, experiments,
inhomogeneity of data, parameterizations
• Postnormality – high uncertainty, high stakes
• The knowledge market
Two different construction of „climate change“ –
scientific and cultural – which is more powerful?
Cultural: „Klimakatastrophe“
Scientific: man-made change is real,
can be mitigated to some extent but not
completely avoided
Lund and Stockholm
Storms
Knowledge market
• The science-policy/public interaction is not an issue of
„knowledge speaks to power“.
• The problem is not that the public is stupid or uneducated.
• The problem is that the scientific knowledge is confronted on
the „explanation marked“ with other forms of knowledge (prescientific, outdated; traditional, morphed by different
interests). Scientific knowledge does not necessarily “win” this
competition.
• The social process „science“ is influenced by these other
knowledge forms.
• Science can not be objective but should nevertheless strive to
be so.
And physics …?
• Climate science comprises a large segment which is essential
a type of physics
• Climate science is of great technical importance, for issues of
mitigation and even more so for adaptation – and thus a type of
physics.
• But climate science is embedded in a politico-cultural
context, which makes climate science post-normal.
• Thus climate science as a whole is not “just” another type of
physics, but a social process significantly different from
conventional physics.
http://coast.hzg.de/staff/storch
[email protected]
Weblog KLIMAZWIEBEL
http://klimazwiebel.blogspot.com/