Transcript Carbon Removals Peter Read Massey University Centre for Energy

Climate and Energy
A Today Problem with a Today Solution:
Carbon Removals
Peter Read
Massey University Centre for Energy Researcjh
“Most critically, researchers know relatively little about
feedback effects that might enhance – or weaken – the pace
and effects of climate change.”.
“Key sticking points include the inability of global climate
models to [re]produce the amount of sea level rise observed
over the past couple of decades and whether ice flows at the
bases of glaciers is accelerating or not. How volatile the
Antarctic and Greenland glaciers might become in a warmer
world is therefore pretty much guesswork”
Nature, pp280-281, 8.Feb, 2007
So yes, the science is uncertain
Would you get on a plane that had a 1 per cent chance of
crashing?
Surface Melt on Greenland
Melt descending
into a moulin, a
vertical shaft
carrying water to
ice sheet base
Source: Roger Braithwaite, University of Manchester
OK
What’s the “today solution”?
CARBON RFEMOVALS
Biosphere Carbon Stock Management
Read, P. and A.Parshotam, 2007.
“Holistic Greenhouse Gas Management Strategy (with Reviewers’
Comments and author rejoinders)”. Institute of Policy Studies
Working Paper 07/1, VUW
//ips.ac.nz/publications/publications/list/7
Read, P., 2007
“Biosphere Management of Carbon Stocks.:Addressing the threat of
abrupt climate change in the next few decades.”
Forthcoming Editorial Essay in Climatic Change
Emissions reductions
Kaya Identity:
Emissions =
Population
* per capita income
* energy intensity of output
*carbon intensity of energy
Carbon removals
Carbon removed by energy system =
Biofuel supply
* carbon/GJ in biofuel * storage efficiency with biofuel ††
–
fossil fuel supply
* carbon / GJ in fossil fuel * (1 – CCS efficiency with fossil fuel)]
Where
Biofuel supply =
(demand for energy / energy efficiency – fossil fuel supply – nonfuel renewable supply)
††
not necessarily CCS - can be biochar in soil linked to pyrolysis
supplies of bio-oil, or plantation stock of biomass raw material.
Comparison of carbon stock management with emission reductions
in mitigating the level of CO2 (in ppm) in the atmosphere
600
A
550
Z
[CO2]
500
F
450
400
350
300
250
200
1990
2000
2010
2020
2030
2040
2050
2060
Year
A
Z
F
SRES-A2
SRES-A2 with a transition to zero emissions technologies between 2011 and 2035
SRES-A2 with a transition to negative emissions technologies over the same period
Table 1: Summary of key illustrative data
Outputs
linear increase to2035
Forestry
Lumber
10Gt/yr
C content of Biochar
1.2Gt/yr
Biodiesel
20EJ/yr
Electricity
23.1EJ/yr
Ethanol
31.4EJ/yr
Stock of C in bio-char soil improvement
15Gt
Stock of C in standing plantation
120Gt
Stock of C in avoided deforestation
8Gt
Stock of C from CO2 of fermentation
2.4Gt
Stock of C from flue gas CCS
9Gt
Sugar Cane
Ethanol
115EJ/yr
Electricity
85EJ/yr
Stock of C from CO2 of fermentation
7.2Gt
Stock of C from flue gas CCS
9.2Gt
Switchgrass
Ethanol
113EJ/yr
Electricity(net)
4.8EJ/yr
Stock of C from CO2 of fermentation
8.6Gt
Stock of C from flue gas CCS
13.8Gt
then 1.5% tech progress till 2060
14.5Gt/yr
1.74Gt/yr
29EJ/yr
33.5EJ/yr
45.6EJ/yr
52Gt
183Gt
38Gt
11.5Gt
60Gt
167EJ/yr
123EJ/yr
34.7Gt
60.5Gt
163EJ/yr
7.0EJ/yr
41.6Gt
90Gt
Aggregate energy supplies
Ethanol
259EJ/yr
Biodiesel
20 EJ/yr
Electricity
113 EJ/yr
Carbon cycle impacts
C in oil displaced by bio-fuels
8.38Gt/yr
\C in coal displaced by bio-electricity 4.23Gt/yr
Stock of C left as in situ fossil fuel
164Gt
Stock of C in standing plantation
120Gt
Stock of C in avoided deforestation
8Gt
Stock of C in bio-char soil improvement 15Gt
Stock of C from CO2 of fermentation
18Gt
Stock of C from flue gas CCS
32Gt
Total C reduction in atmosphere and proximate
sinks (e.g. ocean surface layers)with 357Gt
and without flue gas CCS
325Gt
376EJ/yr
29EJ/yr
164 EJ/yr
12.2Gt/yr
6.14Gt/yr
549Gt
183Gt
38Gt
52Gt
88Gt
210Gt
1120Gt
910Gt
So:
Peak oil and carbon removals go hand in hand ?
Not quite:
600
CO2 (ppm)
550
A
500
D
450
G
H
400
I
350
300
1980
2000
2020
2040
2060
2080
Year
A
SRES-A2
D
SRES-A2 with sugar cane, switch-grass and forestry land use change
activities
G
SRES-A2 with three land use change activities and 30 tC per ha
released through land use change
H
SRES-A2 with three land use change activities and 90 tC per ha
released through land use change
I
SRES-A2 with three land use change activities and 300 tC per ha
released through land use change
Biosphere Carbon Stock Management
1. extract more CO2 from the atmosphere
2. stock it somewhere safe
As a precautionary strategy
A Do low cost enabling things first (be prepared)
B Do costly things later if need be (enabled by A)
As regards 1, there is only one way
It involves large scale land improvement to raise its
productivity and yield all we need in co-produced food/fibre
with fuel
(call it “Global Gardening” – if we look after Mother Nature
there’s some chance she will look after us )
It should be good news for farmers and landowners
As regards 2
i)
ii)
iii)
iv)
standing forest
Biochar soil improvement + bio-oils
BECS (Bio-Energy with CCS)
More wooden houses and other structures
As regards A
1.
Invest in forest plantations to stock carbon and act as a
strategic reserve of biomass raw material
(quite useful as timber if the climate change panic goes away)
2.
Invest in a vehicle fleet that is compatible with biofuels
(a useful hedge against ‘peak oil’ – the dear oil age
3.
•
•
•
•
Invest in biofuel supply systems
maybe 2nd generation cellulosic ethanol
maybe gasification and Fischer Tropsche liquids
maybe pyrolysis with biochar for soil improvement
maybe on-farm gasification linked to ‘herd-homes’ and riparian
tree plantations to prevent pollution of our rivers
An investment should not be treated as a cost
As regards B
Be ready to retrofit CCS onto all large
stationary furnaces
CCS is a pure cost
But it can very easily be made 100 per cent
effective – biomass is coal’s best friend !
But, mix in 20 per cent wood chips and you get zero emissions
From 100 tons fuel,
80 tons fossil results in 16 tons emissions
20 tons wood chips results in negative 16 tons emissions
Net emissions - zero
So, a today solution to the today problem
• Mandate a rising proportion of biofuels
• Mandate a large proportion of flexifuel
cars in the new car import mix
• Mandate importers of 2nd hand cars to
adapt them to 10 per cent ethanol
• Mandate investment by stationary
emitters [both energy, and land based] in
a rising area of new plantations
Do not rely on price signals – today’s price is
a weak driver for investment decisions