Transcript 07. 12 May 08_The Po..

The Positive Role
of Natural Rubber
in Global Climate Change
Presented by
Yium Tavarolit
Chief Secretary and Economist
International Rubber Consortium Limited (IRCo)
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Figure 1. Melting Glaciers
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Photos taken in 1913 (top) and 2005 (above) show the decline in Shepard Glacier in Montana's Glacier National
Park. Changes in ice cover and snowmelt will affect water supplies in several regions around the world.
What is global climate change?
Answer: Global climate change is a
change in the long–term weather
patterns that characterize the regions
of the world
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What is global warming?
Answer: Global warming is the
average temperature of the Earth’s
near–surface air and oceans since
the mid–twentieth century, and its
projected continuation (Wikipedia)
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Figure 2. Global Temperatures
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What causes global climate
change and warming?
The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC)
concluded that most of the observed increase in globally
averaged temperatures since the mid–twentieth century is
very likely due to the observed increase in anthropogenic
(man–made) greenhouse gas concentrations via the
greenhouse effect. Natural phenomena such as solar
variation combined with volcanoes probably had a small
warming effect from pre–industrial times to 1950 and a
small cooling effect from 1950 onward. The three main
causes of the increase in greenhouse gases observed over
the past 250 years have been fossil fuels, land use, and
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agriculture.
Greenhouse gases include: Carbon dioxide (CO2),
 Chlorofluorocarbons (CFC’s),
 Methane (CH4),
 Nitrous oxide (N2O),
 Tropospheric ozone (O3),
 Water vapor
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In chemistry, each molecule of greenhouse
gas becomes energized by the long wave
radiation. The energized molecules of gas
then emit heat energy towards Earth that
increase Earth’s temperature.
Annual greenhouse gas emissions by sectors
are shown in the pie chart below: - (See Pie
Chart)
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Figure 3. Annual Greenhouse Gas Emissions
by Sector
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Land use in agriculture contributes to
greenhouse gas increases through land use
in four main ways:1) CO2 release linked to deforestation
2) Methane releases from rice cultivation
3) Methane releases from enteric fermentation
in cattle
4) Nitrous oxide releases from fertilizer
application
Source: Climate Change and Agriculture: wikipedia
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Figure 4. Atmospheric Carbon Dioxide
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Whether global climate change
will harm agriculture?
 Shortage in grain production: Between 1996
and 2003, global grain production stabilized over
1,800 million tons, but grain stocks dropped and
resulted in a shortage of 93 million tons in 2003.
 Poverty: The increase frequency and severity of
adverse weather events is likely to have a
negative impact on the developing world
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 Crop development models: Despite models for
climate behavior are frequently inconclusive, many
models have been developed and run simulations
based on various set of meteorological variables to
estimate climate changes effects on crop
development and yield.
 Temperature potential effect on growing period:
An increase in temperature will speed up
development and will shorten growing period. The
shortening of such cycle could have as adverse effect
on productivity because senescence would occur
sooner.
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 Potential effect of atmospheric carbon dioxide on
yield: Rising CO2 concentration in the atmosphere
can have both positive and negative consequences.
 Effect on quality: The importance of climate
change impacts on grain and forage quality. It will
reduce nutritional value and animal productivity.
 Agricultural surfaces and climate changes: The
amount of arable land near the poles will increase
due to reduction of the amount of frozen lands. Sea
levels are expected to get up to one meter higher by
2100, though this projection is disputed
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 Erosion and fertility: The increase in precipitations
(rain, snow, etc) would probably result in greater risks
of erosion but providing soil with better hydration. At
the same time, soil fertility would probably be higher
because of an increase in carbon in soil, thus providing
better yields.
 Potential effects of global climate change on pests,
diseases and weeds: There will be an increase in
rainfall in some areas, which would lead to an increase
of atmospheric humidity and the duration of the wet
seasons. Combined with higher temperatures, these
could favor the development of fungal diseases,
insects, and disease carriers.
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 Glacier retreat and disappearance: Will affect the ability
to irrigate crops and will reduce summer stream flows
necessary to keep dams and reservoirs replenished. The
Himalayan glaciers, the principal dry–season water sources
of Asia’s biggest rivers including Ganges, Indus,
Bramaputra, Yangtze, Mekong, Salween and Yellow, could
disappear by 2035 as temperatures rise. Approximately 2.4
billion people live in the drainage basin on the Himalayan
Rivers, India, China, Pakistan, Afghanistan, Bangladesh,
Nepal, and Mynmar could experience floods followed by
severe droughts in coming decades.
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 Ozone and UV-B: Any decrease in stratospheric
ozone could increase biological dangerous ultraviolet
radiation B, which can directly effect plant
physiology and cause massive amounts of mutations,
and indirectly through changed pollinator behavior,
though such changes are difficult to quantify.
However, it has not been ascertained whether an
increase in greenhouse gases would decrease
stratospheric ozone levels.
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How to solve these problem?
4.1 Key technologies to reduce emission: Increase efficiency of energy supply; fuel
switching, renewable (hydropower, solar, wind,
geothermal, and bio-energy); combined heat and
power; nuclear power; early applications of CO2
capture and storage
 More fuel efficiency vehicles for transportation;
hybrid vehicles; bio-fuel; modal shifts from road
transport to rail and public transport systems;
cycling, walking; land-use planning
 Increase more efficient lighting for building;
efficient appliances and air-condition; improved
insulation; solar heating and cooling; alternatives
for fluorinated gases in insulation and appliances 18
4.2 Key policies to reduce emission: Appropriate incentives for development of
technologies
 Effective carbon price signal to create incentives to
invest in low – GHS products, technologies and
processes
 Appropriate energy infrastructure investment
decisions, which have long term effects on
emissions
 Changes in lifestyle and behavior patterns,
especially in building, transport and industrial
sectors
Source: Dr R K Pachauri, Chairman of IPCC, The IPCC Fourth Assessment
Working Group Reports: Key findings, 24 September 2007, New York City
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What is the role of natural rubber
in global climate change?
Efficient system and management of natural rubber plantation
could lower carbon dioxide (CO2) and nitrous oxide (N2O) in the
atmosphere that will stop global warming.
 There should be a joint surveillance committee of the
ITRC to work closely with national agencies concerned
of the three countries to monitor and give
recommendations to rubber smallholders how to reduce
GHGs. At the same time, the committee should consider
how to charge industrialized countries for carbon credits.
 The surveillance committee should monitor the situation
closely whether farmers cut trees and burn forests to
plant natural rubber and reports to their respective
governments to stop deforestation.
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Conclusion
The writer is of the opinion that it is a
responsibility of everybody and governments to
reduce greenhouse gases (GHGs) by
introducing the above mentioned key
technologies and other measures to the daily
lifestyle
Every government should work closely with the
Intergovernmental Panel for Climate Change
(IPCC), as the core center of solving global
climate change, to reduce GHGs
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