Transcript 09_climate change

Climate change
Dihydrogen monoxide (DHMO):
• is also known as hydroxyl acid, and is the major
component of acid rain.
• contributes to the greenhouse effect.
• may cause severe burns.
• contributes to the erosion of our natural landscape.
• accelerates corrosion and rusting of many metals.
• may cause electrical failures and decreased
effectiveness of automobile brakes.
• has been found in excised tumors of terminal
cancer patients.
Despite the danger, dihydrogen monoxide is
often used:
• as an industrial solvent and coolant.
• in nuclear power plants.
• in the production of styrofoam.
• as a fire retardant.
• in many forms of cruel animal research.
• in the distribution of pesticides. Even after
washing, produce remains contaminated by this
chemical.
• as an additive in certain "junk-foods" and other
food products.
The American government has refused to ban the
production, distribution, or use of this damaging
chemical due to its "importance to the economic
health of this nation." In fact, the navy and other
military organizations are conducting
experiments with DHMO, and designing multibillion dollar devices to control and utilize it
during warfare situations. Hundreds of military
research facilities receive tons of it through a
highly sophisticated underground distribution
network. Many store large quantities for later
use.
Did you know about DHMO before?
A) Yes
B) No
C) I think I’ve heard of it
Are you worried about dihydrogen
monoxide now?
A) Yes
B) No
C) Not sure
GW linked to CO2 (and other gases)…
How can we be sure?
Muir
Muir Glacier,
Glacier, Alaska,
Alaska, August
August 13,
13, 1941,
1941, photo
photo by
by W.O.
W.O. Field
Field
Muir Glacier, Alaska, August 31, 2004, photo by B.F. Molnia
Are you on track for submitting a
great term paper this Friday?
A)
B)
C)
D)
Oh s*** it’s due this week?!
I’ll manage
Just a few things left to work out
Pretty much done already
Climate change, part II
or
“why hasn’t it snowed yet?”
Review: central concept
What components of climate
system are important?
True or false
Scientists are in debate about whether or
not the extra GHGs in the air are
because of humans
A) T
B) F
True or false
Scientists are in debate about whether
GHGs are affecting the temperature of
the earth.
A) T
B) F
Forcing?
IPCC, 2001
Models?
Is it our CO2? Yes
• Bookkeeping: quantitative match between known
burning and observed extra CO2 in system;
• No other possible explanation adequate
(volcanic source 1-2% of ours…);
• Air shows fossil fuels responsible:
Atmospheric 13C dilution—extra CO2 is or was
living (not volcanic, dissolved in ocean, etc.)
Atmospheric 14C dilution--extra CO2 is from old
source (not from modern plants)
Atmospheric O2 drop--excess CO2 is from
burning (not from ocean or volcanoes)
CO2 is rising. We’re burning much fossil fuel (~$1200 each,
each year, just to import oil), and we see the CO2 from our tail
pipes in the air and the ocean. Here is the Keeling Curve
showing the rise since 1958.
http://www.npr.org/templates/story/story.php?storyId=9885767
The wiggles are the “breathing” of the seasons (spring leaf
growth and autumn leaf death).
Does a correlation between two variables
imply a causal relationship?
A) Yes
B) Probably
C) No
D) What?
Global warming is
clearly continuing.
Be careful of
cherry-picking, and
weather.
Next slide
Climate usually
a 30-year
average, for
good reasons!
Source: Gavin Schmidt, NASA GISS
http://www.realclimate.org/index.php/archives/2008/01/uncertainty-noise-and-the-art-of-model-data-comparison/#more-523
Warming over last century:
• UNEQUIVOCAL, from cautious IPCC
• Direct thermometer measurements:
 In air (including far from cities);
 In ocean water;
 In ground;
 On balloons;
 From satellites;
• Mass loss from almost all glaciers,
including those getting more snow;
• Great majority of biology shifts in
direction expected for warming;
• (There still is weather--some
people who should know better look
at a cool day, week or year and
claim warming stopped. Silliness.)
Humans don’t
explain what
happened.
Nature doesn’t
explain what
happened.
Red shows
what happened.
Gray shows
what model
thinks happened. Together explains;
was nature, now
mostly us.
IPCC, 2001
Movie?
A) Yes!
B) Maybe
C) Not so much
When?
A) Tues Dec 7 @ 7pm
B) Wed Dec 8 @ 7pm
Solutions?
• Efficiency
• Conservation
• Energy efficiency means providing the
same energy services (or better) for less
energy use
– In contrast, conservation means being
satisfied with less energy service
Solutions?
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•
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Clean coal
Biofuels
Nuclear
Wind
Solar (and Solar thermal)
Solar cells (PVs)
Cap-and-trade
Kyoto protocol
• United Nations Framework Convention on
Climate Change (UNFCCC) -- international
environmental treaty with the goal of achieving
"stabilization of greenhouse gas concentrations
in the atmosphere at a level that would prevent
dangerous anthropogenic interference with the
climate system.“
• Different protocol for different countries – reduce
GHG emissions
•
How did the U.S. respond?
• responsible for 36.1% of the 1990
emission levels of Annex I countries
• George W. Bush (2001) rejects the Kyoto
Protocol on the grounds that it would hurt
the economy
UNFCCC found:
• the largest share of historical and current
global emissions of greenhouse gases
originated in developed countries;
• per capita emissions in developing
countries are still relatively low;
• the share of global emissions originating in
developing countries will grow to meet
social and development needs.
Who’s in the top ten?
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China – 17%, 5.8
United States – 16%, 24.1
European Union-27 – 11%, 10.6
Indonesia - 6%, 12.9
India – 5%, 2.1
Russia – 5%, 14.9
Brazil – 4%, 10.0
Japan – 3%, 10.6
Canada – 2%, 23.2
Mexico – 2%, 6.4
The second figure is the country's/region's per-capita emissions, in
units of tons of GHG per-capita
Copenhagen accord (Dec 2009)
Continuance of Kyoto.
The signees recognize scientific findings that proclaim climate change to be
one of the greatest challenges faced in our time.
• They agree to work towards keeping the rise in global temperatures to
below two degrees Celsius.
• Large industrialized countries must provide plans for cutting carbon
emissions by January 30th, 2010.
• They must prevent deforestation.
• Developing countries should be provided with incentives to use clean
energy.
• countries will now be held to account for what they are actually achieving,
with mandatory reporting every two years for developing countries.
• to aid developing countries, $30 billion of immediate short term funding from
developed countries will be provided over the next three years to kick start
emission reduction measures.
We are 5% of the world’s population, using 20% of the fossil fuel resources.
Per capita power consumption
World = 2kW (+7%) = 0.3 bbl/day
U.S. = 10kW (-9%) = 1.3 bbl/day
CO2 emissions / climate change facts
CO2 ↑ 36% due to humans
gasoline: 2.32 kg CO2/L, or 19.4 #/gal (diesel 15% more)
for 30 mpg efficiency  0.65 #/mi
production left:
Coal:
CO2: kg / kWh:
0.32
Petrol:
0.24 (or 2.3 per L)
39-43 yrs
Natural gas: 0.19
231-417 yrs
167-173 yrs
Maximum Available Energy:
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Sun 173,000 TW
Wind 1220 TW
Plants 166 TW
Waves & currents 65 TW
Geothermal 44 TW
Human use today 15 TW
Tides 4 TW
Hydroelectric 1.9 TW