Transcript - adaptation

Capacity Building Programme on the Economics of Adaptation
Supporting National/Sub-National Adaptation Planning and Action
Health, Energy, Tourism,
and Macroeconomics
Presentation Title
Bangkok October 2012
Health
• Climate change will likely affect disease,
ozone pollution, heat stress, and cold spells
• Climate change will permit vector borne
diseases (e.g. malaria) to migrate to new
areas
• Ozone will form more rapidly from precursors
in warmer temperatures
• Heat waves could pose an increasing risk
• Cold spells likely to decrease
Capacity Building Programme on the Economics of Adaptation
Supporting National/Sub-National Adaptation Planning and Action
Adaptation to Vector Borne Disease
• The prevalence of vector borne disease
decreases rapidly as incomes rise- people
and society can afford to take precautionslikely to be a smaller risk by the end of the
century
• Spray and manage ecosystems to control
mosquitoes and other vectors
• Use nets and repellants to reduce contact
• Treat disease when it appears
Capacity Building Programme on the Economics of Adaptation
Supporting National/Sub-National Adaptation Planning and Action
Ozone controls
• Precursors to tropospheric ozone are
nitrogen oxides and VOC emissions
• Reduce emissions to reduce ozone
• Reduce exposures by providing warning
systems to populations of high ozone
concentrations
Capacity Building Programme on the Economics of Adaptation
Supporting National/Sub-National Adaptation Planning and Action
Controlling Heat Waves
• Temporary high temperatures (heat waves)
are linked to acute premature mortalities,
hospital visits, and asthma attacks
• Exposure can be reduced by providing
cooled indoor refuges (e.g. shopping malls,
sports halls)
• People can reduce outdoor exertion during
hottest hours- alter workday away from heat
Capacity Building Programme on the Economics of Adaptation
Supporting National/Sub-National Adaptation Planning and Action
Energy for Cooling
• Primary protection from heat is to increase
cooling
• Cheap alternatives such as fans and high
ceilings
• Expensive alternative- air conditioning; demand
for energy will increase
• People have adapted to warmer climates and
warmer days with more cooling capacity and
more electricity for cooling
• Could become important issue in Asia as wealth
increases including issues of inequality
Capacity Building Programme on the Economics of Adaptation
Supporting National/Sub-National Adaptation Planning and Action
Energy for Heating
• Heating costs fall as climates warm;
• People change which fuel they use for
heating depend on outside temperature
• People use much less fuel as temperatures
warm
• Benefit of warming
Capacity Building Programme on the Economics of Adaptation
Supporting National/Sub-National Adaptation Planning and Action
Tourism
• Tourism for indoor attractions such as historic
buildings, museums, and churches are not
likely to be climate sensitive
• Outdoor tourism will be affected by climate
change because of relative preferences for
temperature and ecosystem changes
• International tourism often motivated by people
from cold places seeking warm placeswarming of home and excessive warming of
destination may be harmful
Capacity Building Programme on the Economics of Adaptation
Supporting National/Sub-National Adaptation Planning and Action
Tourism
• Ecosystem changes could hurt locations with
valuable ecosystems
• Loss of coral reefs will hurt island tourism
• Loss of rare or charismatic species will hurt
ecotourism
• Longer warm season will likely help most
outdoor tourism (especially water-related)
• Shorter cold season will hurt winter tourism
(skiing)
Capacity Building Programme on the Economics of Adaptation
Supporting National/Sub-National Adaptation Planning and Action
Tourism Adaptation
• Lengthen tourist season
• Dynamic conservation to protect valuable
ecosystems
• Develop new tourist destinations in places
formerly too cold
Capacity Building Programme on the Economics of Adaptation
Supporting National/Sub-National Adaptation Planning and Action
Interactions Across Sectors
• Water and agriculture are bound together in
Asia which depends heavily on irrigation
• Important to examine climate impacts on
agriculture and water together so that plans
to use more irrigation to solve agricultural
issues are consistent with water availability
• Forestry and agriculture adaptations must be
consistent with a fixed land base
Capacity Building Programme on the Economics of Adaptation
Supporting National/Sub-National Adaptation Planning and Action
Macroeconomic Issues
• Large scale impacts and adaptation
responses could alter wages and prices
• If they do, entering such changes into a
macroeconomic model can give refined
estimates of final impacts
• Important that macro models be accurately
estimated or will give unreliable responses
• Difficult to sometimes include climate impacts
in macro models
Capacity Building Programme on the Economics of Adaptation
Supporting National/Sub-National Adaptation Planning and Action
Cautionary Tales
• Some macroeconomic models being
promoted to developing countries give
counterintuitive results
– Tighter environmental controls will not be costly
– Environmental controls will increase jobs
• If adaptation efforts or impacts are modest as
a fraction of GDP, there is no need for
macroeconomic models
Capacity Building Programme on the Economics of Adaptation
Supporting National/Sub-National Adaptation Planning and Action