Transcript 1091-Lec25(Climate2)

Climate change and conservation
(Lec 24-26)
FYI – Additional Reading
Chapter 10 - Principles of Conservation
Biology
Vince (2009) Surviving in a warmer world.
New Scientist Vol 201 No. 2697
Parmesan (2006) Annual Review of of Ecology
and Systematics 37: 637-669
Summary so far
Atmospheric gases prevent long wave (IR) energy from
being dissipated into space
CO2 contributes most to the Earth’s ability to absorb and
retain solar energy (i.. it has the strongest radiative
forcing)
Data from ice cores show CO2 and global temperatures
have risen over the last 100 years
All scenarios developed by the IPCC suggest CO2 levels
and global climate change will continue
The IPCC chair suggests we should plan for a 4C warming
by 2100
Climate change and conservation (Lec 25)
Predicted Impacts on Biological Systems
Observed Ecological Impacts
Ecosystem feedback loops
Conservation implications
Climate can determine the distribution of species
Changes in temperature or precipitation will change
the geographical range of species
How will climate change impact biomes,
communities, species?
Predictions
Geographic ranges should
move towards the poles
show elevational changes
Climate envelope modelling
Current climate
+ distribution
“climate envelope”
Predict climate
+ climate envelope
 Predicted distribution
BUT
Different species in a community
have different needs and tolerances
vary in their ability to move
How will climate change impact biomes,
communities, species?
Predictions
Species differ in their response
New communities are created
Species abundances change
New species invade
Some species go extinct
Observed Ecological Impacts
Range shifts
Birds
Great Britain - 59 species
- northward shift of 19 km in 20yrs
North America
- 56 bird species
- north ward shift of 46 km in 20 yrs
- range is contracting because
southern range boundary shifting faster
Observed Ecological Impacts
Range shifts
Birds - North America - winter range
Observed Ecological Impacts
Range shifts
Mammals
Red fox
has expanded into the North
Arctic fox
has contracted to Atlantic
Observed Ecological Impacts
Range shifts
Butterflies
North America and Europe
58 species
2/3 shifted north 100km/decade
Edith’s checkerspot
Observed Ecological Impacts
Range shifts
Plankton – mesozooplankton in the ne Atlantic
Northwards
shifts of
1000km
Observed Ecological Impacts
Elevational change
Monteverde National Park, Costa Rica
Lowland birds
move into
montane cloud forest
Siberia and Canadian Rockies
Treeline movement
has been documented
Observed Ecological Impacts
Phenological change
Plants
Japan- Cherry
- 1400-1900 no change in flowering timing
- 1950 on
timing has advanced
Europe – Grape harvest
- 1500-2000 – timing depends on temp
- 2003 earliest harvest ever
Animals
US UK
Frogs- 6 spp 1900-2000
10-13 day advance linked to 1 -2.3C increase
Birds 20 spp 1970-1995
9 day advance in laying date
Summary of studies for 944 species
(Parmesan and Yohe 2003)
Climate change As predicted
prediction
%
Opposite to prediction
%
Earlier timing
87
13
Extension
of range boundaries
polewards
81
19
Community change
85
Cold adapted species decline
Warm adapted species increase
15
Consequences of range shifts
What happens when your food moves?
Triangle Island BC
Sea surface temperature influences
availability of the copepod
Neocalanus cristatus
Warm-water prey species are smaller
and have lower fat content
Less N cristatus  reduced nestling
growth and lower fledgling success
Cassin auklets have declined 2.3%/yr
over the last 40 yrs
Consequences of range contractions
What happens when you can’t go up anymore?
8400 landbirds
2.8C increase in temperature – 5% extinct by 2100
6.4C
30% extinct by 2100
Sekercoglu (2008) Cons Bio 22:140-150
Consequences of phenological shifts
What happens if your timing is off?
Colorado Rocky Mountains
- 1.4C rise in air temperature 1975- 1999
yellow bellied marmots
emerge from hibernation 38 days earlier
 American robins arrive 14 days earlier
BUT snowmelt and plant flowering has NOT changed
The gap between arrival/emergence and when food is
available has increased
this will increase mortality and reduce clutch/litter size
Additional consequences of climate change
Pest species and disease are also moving polewards
and upward
Eg Chytrid fungus
Cooler days and warmer nights have resulted in
favourable conditions at mid-elevation sites
Changes in dynamics of the skin fungus is implicated
in subsequent extinctions of 74 harlequin frog
species
Summary so far
Climate change is unequivocal
Biological impacts are being detected already
Adaptation and mitigation are necessary
Next
Biodiversity/Conservation impacts on climate
Conservation implications