Transcript Don`t Attempt to Solve

Reut Methodology Day
Relevancy Gaps
Divergent
Reality
Mindset
Closing
Relevancy Gaps
Why Relevancy
Gaps aren’t closed
Identifying
Relevancy Gaps
How Relevancy
Gaps form
How Societies choose to Fail or Succeed
Climate Change
Environmental Damage
How Society Responds
to Problems
Decreased support from Friends
Hostile Neighbors
The Case of the Greenland Norse
Arrive 1000 CE; Disappear 1450
Approx 5,000 people in 2 Settlements
Communal, violent hierarchical &
conservative
More European than Europe
Climate Change: Little Ice Age
Environmental Damage
Trade Disengagement from Europe
Hostile Neighbors: The Innuit
Inability to Adapt
Why Societies Collapse
Don’t Anticipate
Don’t Perceive
No prior experience
Some problems
imperceptible
Reason by false
analogy
Distant Managers
Slow Trend Concealed
Don’t Solve
Don’t Attempt to Solve
(Perceive & Attempt)
Rational Bad Behavior
Solution exists
but unviable
Dislike those who
complain
Efforts too little
too late
Group Denial
(Work Avoidance)
Beyond present
capacity to solve
Status Quo supports
deeply held value
Preventing Predictable Surprises
Cognitive
Organizational
Political
Generally Optimistic
Structural barriers 2
effective info processing
Political Losers Mobilize
Overly Discount Future
Scanning / Integration +
Learning Failures
Reluctant to change
status quo
Aviation Security
New Security Oversight expensive
Airlines Block Reform
9.11
Travel Delays
Problem Appears
Significant Costs to Solving
(Benefits delayed)
Worsens
Tendency to
Maintain Status Quo
Definite cost in present;
uncertain future cost
Vocal Minority vs. Change
Lanir: Between Situational + Fundamental
Cognitive
Fundamental:
Incompatibility of
self perception with
reality
Organizational
Political
Situational:
Lack of Information
Where does it meet Reut?
Mindset
Divergent
Reality
Organizational
Political
Cognitive
Why Relevancy
Gaps aren’t closed
Don’t Perceive
Don’t Attempt to
Solve
Don’t Anticipate
Don’t Solve
(Perceive & Attempt)