Transcript Climate change, land degradation and

Climate Change, land degradation and migration
in Mali and Senegal and their policy impacts
Diana Hummel & Victoria van der Land
“The Hamburg Conference:
Actions for Climate Induced Migration”
Hamburg, 16–18 July 2013
Project „migration, climate change & environment in
the Sahel“ (micle)
■ Cooperation partners
■ ISOE – Institute for social-ecological research
(Project coordination)
■ Geographical Institute, University of Bayreuth
■ Partners in Mali und Senegal
■ Point Sud - Center for Research on Local
Knowledge, Bamako, Mali
■ LARTES - Laboratoire de Recherche sur les
Transformations Economiques et Sociales,
Université de Dakar, Senegal
Duration: September 2010 - April 2014
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Overall Objective & Research Question
■ Analysis of interactions between climate change, land degradation
and migration in Sahelian regions Senegal and Mali
■ motives for migration and patterns thereof
■ local population‘s perception and evaluation of climate and
environmental changes
■ role of climate and environmental changes in migration decisions
■ What are the specific social-ecological conditions under which
migration takes place and how are these conditions impacted by
climate and environmental changes?
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Project Design: Inter- & transdisciplinary Approach
■ Methodology that
integrates naturalscientific and socialscientific insights, as well
as scientific & nonscientific knowledge
■ In-depth study at local
and regional level
■ Identification of policy
options (orientation
knowledge)
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General Hypotheses
■ Specific social-ecological conditions constitute the context for
migration decisions
■ Migration results from interplaying factors on different scales
■ Migration is path-dependent, multi-causal, multi-directional and
selective
■ Temporal & circular migration as an established and successful
strategy to cope with climate variablity and as integral part of
societal action
■ Environmental conditions can impact mobility, environmental
changes can be one factor for changes in mobility structures
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Methods - Social-empirical analysis
■ Survey: 900 interviews with individuals in Bandiagara and Linguére
and in Bamako and Dakar
■ Ca. 120 qualitative Interviews
■ Expert interviews
■ Focus groups
■ Participatory observation
■ Joint fieldwork of natural & social scientists
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Physio-Geographical Analysis
Temporal-spatial patterns of climate
variability (temperature, precipitation)
& vegetation changes
Methods
■ Comparison & evaluation of existing
climate data and localisation
■ Long-term time series and high
resolution time series
■ Validation of changes with higher
resolution systems (Landsat,
Rapideye)
■ On-site field work: Ground truthing,
interviews with local inhabitants
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Study Regions Linguère & Bandiagara
■ High population mobility, migration deficit
■ Increasing rainfall variability and land degradation
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Focus on Land Degradation
Reduction of biological productivity of dryland ecosystems &
degradation of ecosystem services as result of natural processes &
human activities
■ Study areas characterized by
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decreasing soil productivity and reduced biodiversity
decrease of agricultural production
food insecurity
increased livestock numbers
deforestation, shortage of fuelwood
■ phenomena of „greening“
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Local Representations
of Climate & Environment: Rainfall
■
Amounts of rainfall today lower than in the 1960s, rising precipiation in past 20 years
■
Upward trends for the last 5 years & very abundant rainfalls in 2009/2010: very good
harvests (ML; SN), but also flooding & crop failure (ML)
■
Not only quantity, but distribution & timing of rainfall important: uncertain start & end
of rainy season, heavy rainfalls increasing, persisting moisture on fields
■
Other factors for good harvests: access to seeds, fertilizer, availability of land,
labor force
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Migration Patterns – Spatial Dimension
Migration is predominantly
internal or regional
■ Internal migration prevails
- to cities capitals
- Mali: also to rural destinations
in the South
■ Few international/regional
migration to
Europe, USA & Gulf States
more common in
Linguère, rare in Bandiagara
Abidjan/Cote d‘Ivoire most
important destination for
migrants from Bandiagara
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Survey: (Non-)Governmental Supports and Migration
Experience
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Suvey: Attitudes towards migration policies
Governmental Action
More than 50% are in favor of
encouragement of migration, but
almost half of respondents are
for restrictive policies
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Survey: Attitudes towards migration
Great majority of respondents would
advise family members to migrate
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First results from survey
■
Most findings confirm existing studies
■
Migration characterized by
■ multitude of migration destinations and objectives/motives
■ „new obscurity“ of migration: rural-urban & seasonal migration prevails, but
increasingly during the rainy season
■ internal & international migration patterns are intertwined and affected by translocal
provisioning strategies
■ social networks are important for migration decisions & motives
■ significant increase of female migration (sometimes sanctioned)
■ Role of education leval & education as motive for migration
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Climate variability
■ irregularity of rainfall considered as serious problem
■ bad harvests and food shortages are motives for migration
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Policy impacts
■ Dealing with fragmented governance-systems in diverse policyarenas
■ Multi-level governance necessary with focus on citizen‘s needs
■ Inreasing capabilities of the youth
■ Education (not only education level, but quality)
■ Labor in agriculture, industry, services
■ Environment & nature protection
■ Inclusive urban and regional development planning
■ Important instruments at national level
■ Development: Poverty reduction strategy papers (PRSP)
■ Climate & environment: National Action plans (NAPA)
 Implementation and ownership
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References
■
Adamo, S.B. (2008): Addressing environmentally induced population displacements: A delicate task. Background Paper for the
Population-Environment Research Network Cyberseminar “Environmentally Induced Population Displacements”, 18–29 August 2008
www.populationenvironmentresearch.org (2-21-2012)
■
Bilsborrow, R.E./ Henry, S.J.F. (2012): The use of survey data to study migration-environment relationships in developing countries:
alternative approaches to data collection. Population and Environment 34, 113-141
■
Black, R./D. Kniveton/R. Skeldon/D. Coppard/A. Murata/K. Schmidt-Verkerk (2008): Demographics and Climate Change: Future
Trends and their Policy Implicationf for Migration. Development Research Centre on Migration, Globalisation and Poverty. Brighton:
University of Sussex
■
Doevenspeck, M. (2011): The Thin Line Between Choice and Flight: Environment and Migration in Rural Benin. International Migration,
49(S1): 50–68
■
Findley, S.E. (1994): Does drought increase migration? A study of migration from rural Mali during the 1983–1985 drought.
International Migration Review, 28(3): 539–553
■
Foresight: Migration and Environmental Change (2011): Final Report. London: The Government Office for Science
■
Hummel, D. (Ed.) (2008): Population dynamics and supply systems. A transdisciplinary approach. Frankfurt/New York
■
Hummel, D.; Doevenspeck, M.; Samimi, C. (2012): Climate change, environment and migration in the Sahel. Selected issues with a
focus on Senegal and Mali
■
Hummel, D.; van der Land, V. (in print): Vulnerability and the Role of Education in Environmentally Induced Migration in Mali and
Senegal“. Ecolgy and Society
■
Piguet, E.; Pécoud, A.; de Guchteneire, P. (2011): Migration and Climate Change. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press
■
Warner, K. (2011): Environmental change and migration: methodological considerations from ground-breaking global survey.
Population and Environment 33: 3–27
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Thank you much for your attention!