Transcript Agriculture & Climate Change

Climate Change & Agriculture
in Uzbekistan
Awareness Raising and Consultation
Workshop
May 19, 2010 Tashkent
Dr. William R. Sutton
Senior Agricultural Economist
Europe & Central Asia Region
The World Bank
Why Should You Care about
Climate Change?
• Climate change is already happening in
Uzbekistan
• Climate change in Uzbekistan will accelerate
in the future
• “Business as usual” approach will have
negative impacts for agriculture
• Now is the time to start developing and
implementing adaptation responses
Uzbekistan’s Climate Is Already Changing
Source: www.climatewiz.org
Increasing Frequency and Severity of
Extreme Events
•Uzbekistan’s climate is highly variable from month to
month and year to year
•Frequency and severity of extreme events shows an
increasing trend, especially high temperature days.
o
Number of Days with Maximum Temperatures Higher than 38 C
The Adaptation Deficit
• The productivity gap between potential yields and
actual yields is significant for Uzbekistan
• Countries/regions that have opportunities to benefit
from climate change are poorly positioned to do so
Mean Yields in Uzbekistan and China for Cotton Seed and Wheat: 1992-2008
8.0
Wheat Yield Potential Above 7t/ha
7.0
Yield t/ha
6.0
5.0
4.0
3.0
2.0
1.0
Source: www.faostat.fao.org
0.0
1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008
Wheat - China
Wheat - Uzbekistan
Seed cotton - China
Seed cotton - Uzbekistan
Why Should You Care About
Climate Change?
Climate change in Uzbekistan will
Accelerate in the Future
Temperatures are Projected to Increase
Significantly
Precipitation is Projected to
Increase Moderately
Aridity is Projected to Increase Significantly
Summer
Temperatures
Summer
Precipitation
Why Should You Care About
Climate Change?
“Business as usual”
will result in missed
opportunities and
negative impacts for
agriculture
Uzbekistan Is Vulnerable on a Number of
Fronts
Uzbekistan’s climate change vulnerability exceeds the ECA
region average for a number of factors
Sources: World Development Indicators 2008; FAO AGL 2005; Baettig, M. et al., 2007., ECA Databank.
Enhancing Adaptive Capacity and Reducing Sensitivity
Are Critical to Reducing Vulnerability
Source: Fay and Patel, 2008.
Some Agro-ecological Zones and Production
Systems Are More Vulnerable than Others
Countrywide
•More risk for agricultural production, and increased moisture deficits,
especially during summer.
•Increased risk of heatwaves, drought and other extreme events
•Longer growing season could provide new crop opportunities in
suitable areas.
Agro-ecological Zone (AEZ) Climate Change
Implications
Desert and Steppe AEZ
•Reduced crop and livestock productivity
•Increased risk of aridity, desertification and salinization
•Increased risk of heatwaves, drought and water scarcity
AEZ Climate Change Implications
Piedmont AEZ
•Longer growing season could provide new crop opportunities
•Reduced crop and livestock productivity, especially over summer
•Increased risk of frosts on early flowering perennials
•Increased risk of aridity, desertification and salinization
AEZ Climate Change Implications
Highland AEZ
•Longer growing season could increase pasture productivity.
•Increased risk of agricultural pests, diseases and weeds.
•Increased rate and change in timing of snow melt, leading to
different stream flow regimes in the lower catchment
Wheat Yields are Projected to Decline, whilst
Results for Maize Yields are Mixed
Source: Fischer, G., et.al. 2007.
No Adaptation = Reduced Water for Irrigation
•Agriculture ≥ 90% of water
withdrawals
•With no adaption, water
demand will increase,
secured supplies will
decrease
•Result = 500% increase in
projected water deficit by
2050
•Opportunities for
substantial improvements
in water use efficiency
Source: Adapted from Centre of Hydrometeorological Service, Cabinet of Ministers, 2008. Second National Communication of the
Republic of Uzbekistan under the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change, Tashkent
Why Should You Care about
Climate Change?
Now is the time to start
developing and implementing
adaptation responses
Initial Steps Already Taken, But More
to Do
• First National Communication, 1999;
• Second National Communication, 2008;
• Uzhydromet Study: Climate Change and its
Impact on Hydrometeorological Processes,
Agro-Climatic and Water Resources, 2007.
Uzbekistan needs a consolidated strategy and a
comprehensive action plan to meet the climate
challenges facing the crop and livestock sectors
.
There is Increasing Global Focus on the
Development of National Adaptation Strategies
• Uzbekistan is a party to Article 4 of the United
Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change
(UNFCCC) that stipulates:
“All Parties shall formulate and implement measures to
facilitate adequate adaptation to climate change”
• The 2008 Second National Communication of
Uzbekistan to the UNFCCC highlights:
“Vulnerability assessment and selection of adaptation
measures for the agroindustrial complex is of a
specific importance for food security”
• establish a cross-ministerial or cross-sectorial
council for adaptation to climate change
Adaptation has Long Investment
Horizons – Action is Needed Now
Benefit from
adaptation
Transformation of landuse or
distribution change
New products such as
ecosystem services
Climate ready germplasm, index insurance
irrigation infrastructure, hydromet services
farm subsidy and water pricing reform
Varieties, planting times, spacing, livestock vaccination,
tillage practices, water and nutrient management
Climate change
Source: Adapted from:
Howden et al. 2007.
Why Should You Care about Climate
Change?
• Uzbekistan is one of most vulnerable countries to
climate change in the Europe and Central Asia Region
• Climate variability and change are already impacting
Uzbekistan and will accelerate in the future
• Business as usual approach will result in missed
opportunities and negative impacts for agriculture
• Now is the time to start developing and implementing
adaptation responses
• Focus on “win-win” or “no regrets” solutions, and
mitigation opportunities
• The World Bank has a program to support you in this
Thank You!