Transcript Abrupt climate change

Climate change
Lecturers:
Stefan Mulitza
André Paul
Michael Schulz
Rüdiger Stein
Climate change
• Climate Change I: Fundamentals
– Earth System Modeling
– The Role of High Latitude Oceans in Climate
Change
Students obtain a basic understanding of the physics of the
climate system with special emphasis on high latitude
processes. They become familiar with the mathematical
and physical concepts underlying earth-system models and
obtain programming and data-analysis skills (MATLAB).
Conceptual model of the climate system
Figure 1-5 (bottom) from Ruddiman (2001)
Earth System Modeling
The modern ice-covered Arctic Ocean:
marine productivity and sea-ice cover
The Role of High Latitude Oceans in Climate Change
Climate change
• Climate Change II: Models and Data
– Abrupt Climate Changes
– Modeling Past and Future Climate Changes
The students become familiar with the reconstructed
climate variations for selected time intervals of the
Cenozoic. They gain an understanding of the dynamics of
abrupt climate changes and are enabled to assess the role
of natural and anthropogenic climate variations in future
climate change.
Why study abrupt climate change?
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it has repeatedly affected much or all of the Earth, locally with
temperature changing by as much as 10 °C in 10 years
evidence suggests it is not only possible but likely in the future,
potentially with large impacts on ecosystems and societies
its not well enough understood to be predicted
research into causes, patterns, and likelihood of abrupt climate change
can help reduce vulnerabilities and increase adaptive capabilities
Abrupt Climate Changes
Alley et al. (2003)
Strongest warming over land and at high latitudes
stippling: mean change larger than internal variability + at least 90% of
models agree on the sign of change ("small uncertainty")
hatching: mean change less than internal variability ("large uncertainty")
IPCC WG1 AR5, Figure SPM.8
Modeling Past and Future Climate Changes
Earth-system modeling
• Start: Friday, 17 October 2014, 8:3013:00, GEO 1490
– Earth-system overview: Atmosphere, ocean
and sea ice
– Introduction to MATLAB I
➔André Paul ([email protected]),
➔Michael Schulz ([email protected])
The role of high-latitude oceans
in climate change
• Start: Friday, 19 December 2014, time to
be announced, GEO 1490
– Information on lectures, laboratory work at
AWI, etc.
– Participation necessary!
➔ Rüdiger Stein ([email protected])
The role of high-latitude oceans
in climate change
• Practical work in laboratory:
– one full day, 9:00-17:00
– core description, smear-slide analysis,
interpretation of data, etc.
Grading
• There will be one oral exam (one mark) for
each module.
Picture: Richard Alley
Hvalsey Church in the Western Settlement, Greenland (abandoned in 1408)