Transcript Act and Adapt: Climate Change in Scotland, Scottish

ACT AND ADAPT:
CLIMATE CHANGE IN
SCOTLAND
Climate Change Division
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Climate Change: Science
•2,000 international scientists say humans cause global
warming, and climate change is faster than expected.
•Without action on greenhouse gases, global temperature will
rise 2-4°C, and maybe 6°C, this century.
•Significant risk that global warming will accelerate, leading to
sudden or irreversible climate change.
•Rising temperature, rising sea level, melting ice sheets,
ocean acidification, extreme climate events.
•The poor and vulnerable will be worst affected.
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Climate Change: Global Action
•A new global treaty on climate change is vital to stop global
warming of 2°C above pre-industrial levels.
•Global greenhouse gas emissions to be stabilised by around
2020, then reduced by at least 50% of 1990 levels by 2050.
•Action by developed and developing world needed.
•Against background of economic problems, United Nations
meets in Copenhagen in December 2009.
•Agreement of USA, China, India and Brazil on fossil fuels,
deforestation and finance for the developing world is crucial.
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Climate Change: European Union and UK
•European Union is leading global action. Target to deliver
20% emissions cuts by 2020, increasing to 30% if there is a
global agreement.
• Targets
to establish a 20% share for renewable energy, and
to improve energy efficiency by 20%.
•The UK has also acted unilaterally through its Climate
Change Act 2008, setting a target of 80% cuts by 2050.
•EU and UK are committed to a low carbon economy.
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Scottish Ministers’ Policy
•Climate change is a serious threat.
•Scotland can act as a model of international best practice to
influence international action.
•The shift to a low carbon economy is a major opportunity,
particularly for economic recovery.
•Scotland to be green energy capital of Europe.
•Cost of action is much less than cost of inaction.
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Scotland: Legislation
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Scotland: Legislation
•Scottish Ministers’ Climate Change Bill is world-leading
climate legislation:
•Covers all greenhouse gases.
•Covers international aviation and shipping.
•System of annual targets cutting greenhouse gases.
•2020 interim target, at least 42% cut in emissions if
EU adopts 30% target.
•Target of 80% cut in emissions by 2050.
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Scotland: Transport Emissions are Rising
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Scotland: Greenhouse Gas Emissions
•Consumption in Scotland continues to rise.
•Greenhouse gas emissions in Scotland rose by 5.4% from
2005 to 2006, mostly increased coal power generation due to
high gas prices and outages at nuclear stations.
•Despite this, emissions at 59 MtCO2e in 2006 were still
13.4% lower than the 1990-95 international baseline, mainly
due to the shift away from heavy industry.
•Emissions in 2007 are expected to fall to around 20% below
the 1990-95 baseline.
•Emissions figures are volatile.
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Scotland: The Challenge
Total net GHG emissions in 2006 were 88% of 1990 emissions
- need to fall by 80% by 2050
100%
90%
Waste
Business (incl. industrial processes)
80%
70%
60%
50%
40%
30%
International
Aviation &
Shipping
Public
Transport
Residential
Energy Supply
20%
10%
0%
-10%
Agriculture
Land Use , Land Use Change & Forestry
2006
2050
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Committee on Climate Change
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Committee on Climate Change
The Committee has recommended:
•Rapid “decarbonisation” of electricity production.
•More wind power.
•Energy efficiency at home and work.
•Increasing green electricity for heat and transport.
•Decarbonisation of industry.
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Scotland: Green Energy Capital of Europe
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Scotland: Delivery
•Strong low carbon energy plan based on 10 energy pledges.
•Target of 31% renewable energy by 2011 and 50% by 2020.
•Huge potential for offshore wind and marine energy (£10m
Saltire Prize).
•At leading edge of developing carbon capture and storage.
•50% of emissions covered by carbon trading schemes.
•£2.6 billion over 3 years on greener transport.
•Aspiration to increase forest cover from 17% to 25%.
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Scotland: Delivery
•£15m for a new area-based energy efficiency in homes.
•£27m Climate Challenge Fund funding community carbon
reduction projects.
•Commitment to assess carbon impact of Government
budgets from 2010-11.
•Public sector: National Health Service has reduced
emissions by 40% compared to 1990.
•Business: £0.2m for Prince of Wales Mayday climate change
business network, via Scottish Business in the Community.
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Scotland: Adaptation
Scotland’s Climate Change
Adaptation Framework
Exposure
Adaptive Capacity
Competing Pressures
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