Transcript Possibilities for Africa in Global Action on Climate Change

Possibilities for Africa in Global
Action on Climate Change
Lord Nicholas Stern
Chair of the Grantham Research Institute on Climate
Change and the Environment,
IG Patel Professor of Economics & Government,
London School of Economics and Political Science
African Partnership Forum Special Session on Climate Change
3 September 2009,Addis Ababa
Three Part Structure
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Section
case
for a strong
global
Section 1:
1: The
Climate
Change–
Some
African
Perspectives
Section 2:Challenges and Opportunities
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Section 3: Key Issues for Africa
1
|
Climate change is a critical issue for Africa
Current development issues may be worsened by climate change
6.6
Global
21.8
2005
North Africa
▪ Water stress may
be worsened by
increased
desertification of
semi-arid areas
U.S.
Africa
3.3
8.4
22.4
2030
2.9
West and Central
Africa
▪ Low agricultural
yields may be
worsened by drought
▪ Cities at risk from
coastal flooding
Southern Africa
▪ Heightened water stress in some river basins
from droughts and changes in precipitation
SOURCE: UNFCCC; UN ESA; IEA;
1 Including emissions from land-use and forestry
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East Africa
▪ Rainfall may
increase in
some areas
▪ Expansion of
vector-borne
disease
transmission
zone
▪ Declines in
fisheries in
some major
East African
lakes
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Per capita GHG
emission comparison1
MtCO2e per capital
Climate change will threaten the development agenda –
with some effects already here
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•Economic growth
•Income poverty and hunger
•Direct and indirect health effects
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•Dislocation, (cross border and cross continental)
migration and conflict
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A strong global deal on climate change is in Africa’s
interests
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A strong global deal on climate change is in Africa’s
interests
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Three Part Structure
Section 1: The case for a strong global
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Section
Section 2:Challenges
2:Challenges and
and Opportunities
Opportunities
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Section 3: Key Issues for Africa
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Financing and fostering low-carbon growth
•Achieving low-carbon growth is possible and in fact an opportunity for Africa’s
development, but it requires an investment strategy
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•Low-carbon growth strategies should be embodied in holistic national action
plans that integrate adaptation, mitigation and development. These plans will
guide implementation and facilitate access to the necessary funding.
•Africa will need not only additional funding but also timely and predictable
delivery on existing ODA commitments.
•The institutional structures from a global deal should promote equity, efficiency
and mutual trust.
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•Financial mechanisms should be performance based but should suit Africa’s
specific needs.
Key opportunities
Adaptation opportunities
Low-carbon growth opportunities
Agriculture
and forestry
Energy
▪
▪
▪
▪
▪
▪
▪
Cities and
infrastructure
Deploy on-grid renewable technologies using climate change related funding to cover
incremental costs
Develop off-grid renewable power and cooking/ heating technologies with co-benefits for
development
Support energy efficiency programmes through capability building and knowledge sharing
▪ Orient transportation systems on a low-carbon pathway
▪ Protect urban development and infrastructure through construction of sea-walls, dikes and
▪
▪
Health
Make strategic development choices that reflect water demand and supply
Factor climate change into design and planning of water efficiency across sectors
Climate-proof existing and new water supply infrastructure
Leap-frog to new water supply solutions that save both energy and carbon
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▪
co-benefits and raise value of forest/land
Develop bioenergy industry for local and export markets
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Water
▪ Climate-proof agricultural yields through funds incremental to ODA
▪ Use funding for forest and land-based mitigation to capture agriculture and forestry-related
▪
flood-protection systems with specific adaptation funding
Strengthen disaster relief management capabilities and preparedness
Build on efforts to strengthen public health and health systems so they can better cope with
climate change impacts
Invest in climate data and track impact of climate change on health to allow for healthcare
planning, improved early warning and faster response to crises
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Opportunities to attract flows of finance to Africa
Africa abatement cost curve 2030
Industry upgrades (e.g. CCS)
Livestock vaccine
Onshore wind
Reduced intensive land conversion
Abatement cost
€ / tCO2e
60
Landfill gas generation
40
30
Efficiency
improvements
other industry
20
10
Reduced timber harvesting
Cropland
afforestation
0
-10
0
500
1,000
1,500
-30
Reduced slash and burn
agriculture conversion
-60
-100
-110
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Grassland management
-50
-90
3,000
Abatement potential
MtCO2e per year
Organic soils restoration
-40
-80
2,500
Pastureland afforestation
-20
-70
2,000
Solar concentrators
Solar PV
Waste recycling
Tillage and residue management
Landfill gas direct use
Efficiency improvements
(e.g. lighting, electronics, appliances and motor systems)
SOURCE: Global GHG abatement cost curve v2.0
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Degraded land restoration
Agronomy practices
Forest management
Degraded forest reforestation
Nuclear
50
|
The global abatement potential in 2030 is around 38Gt Co2e relative to BAU emissions
of 70Gt Co2e at a cost of up to €60 per tonne Co2e
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Adapting to climate change and the opportunity to
move to a low carbon economy: the costs in Africa
•In the 2020s, the additional costs for adaptation together with the mitigation
costs for Africa could rise to between $50–100 billion per year. Adaptation
costs, in particular, are likely to rise rapidly as the climate changes over the
next two decades.
•Key areas for adaptation finance include capacity building, anticipatory
adaptation and climate-proofing and social protection (which includes
protecting livelihoods and health).
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•Based on incremental costs for low-carbon abatement opportunities,
additional financing would be concentrated in three main sectors: forestry,
agriculture and energy.
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•The cost of action on climate change in Africa could amount to around $30
billion per year in 2015. This figure includes around $20 billion per year for
adaptation and $10 billion per year for the transition to a low carbon
economy (mitigation).
Three Part Structure
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Section 1: The case for a strong global
Section 2:Challenges and Opportunities
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Section 3: Key Issues for Africa
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Key Issues and a Possible Position for Africa
•It is crucial that rich countries not only honour their existing
commitments but also find the extra resources necessary to cope
with the climate change in the next two decades, which arises
mainly from their past emissions.
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•The twin challenges of climate change in Africa are development in
a more hostile climate and the creation of low-carbon growth: action
on climate change and on development cannot be separated.
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•Adaptation costs are likely to rise rapidly as the climate changes
over the next two decades. Many populations will suffer severe
stress from more frequent and more severe floods, droughts and
storms as well radical changes in patterns of rainfall.
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Key Issues and a Possible Position for Africa
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•Carbon markets must be reformed to include opportunities
relevant to Africa, particularly opportunities in forestry. But halting
deforestation will require major development support, including
for agricultural productivity and governance, beyond that from
carbon markets which calls for additional public funding.
•The main sources of new public funding for climate change
should be:
national carbon taxes in rich countries
national permit auction revenue from carbon markets
international auction revenues, as in the Norwegian proposal
international transport levies
general rich country government revenues. All are relevant and a
mix would be more stable than just one.
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(i)
(ii)
(iii)
(iv)
(v)
•Any source of finance should be blended with development
funding in as simple a way as possible: both predictability,
reliability and linking to results will be important.
•
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Key Issues and a Possible Position for Africa
The institutional architecture from a global deal should promote
equity, efficiency and mutual trust.
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The administration of funds should:
• be simple and efficient;
• limit the number of new institutions
• use existing development channels where possible
• well-integrated into development programmes
• draw upon governance embodying full developed and
developing country representation
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At the national level, in both developed and developing countries,
ensuring efficient and transparent national and local institutions will
help build mutual trust and increase the effectiveness of mitigation
and adaptation activities.
How to make it happen
•Climate change requires the attention of Heads of State.
•Africa has a very strong position on the basis of (i) having least
responsibility for the problem, (ii) being most affected and (iii) being
poorest.
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•Africa is at its most powerful if it can speak with one voice.
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•The current economic crisis is not an excuse, on the contrary it is an
opportunity to lay the foundations of low carbon growth
Possibilities for Africa in Global
Action on Climate Change
Lord Nicholas Stern
Chair of the Grantham Research Institute on Climate
Change and the Environment,
IG Patel Professor of Economics & Government,
London School of Economics and Political Science
African Partnership Forum Special Session on Climate Change
3 September 2009,Addis Ababa