Transcript Oceanography of Timor Sea

Present and Future Activities on
the North West Shelf
Susan Wijffels | Dynamic Ocean Theme Leader
For the WfO team
WEALTH FROM OCEANS NATIONAL RESEARCH FLAGSHIP
Summary
CSIRO is working in the Northwest across a broad range of
areas



Oceans and climate from decadal through daily processes
Biogeochemical and carbon cycling
Ecosystem characterisation, function, dynamics and biodiversity
including human impacts
Future
•
Would like to see more synthesis across disciplines
•
Data scarcity remains a huge challenge
•
Target development of modelling/prediction systems
initially based on those deployed in other regions
(BlueLink/eReefs) but tailored for this unique region
Improved ocean information systems and services
for government, public and industry
Large-Scale Modes of Atmosphere-Ocean Variability
Indonesian Throughflow
Decadal Variability
Monsoons
Intraseasonal Variability
Indian Ocean Dipole
El Niño – Southern Oscillation
Biogeochemical Cycling
Southern Annular Mode
Mean Flow Field
On interannual time scales – remote winds
control the ocean structure in this region
To manage
these regions
we need to know the
large-scale influences
(plus regional information,
e.g. continental
shelf processes):
International INSTANT Project
Australia,USA,France,Indonesia,Netherlands
Indonesian Throughflow
Flow variability with depth
Surface layers and deep layers are decoupled and forced differently
Ocean response to Tropical
Cyclones
• CSIRO’s fully non-linear, 3-D
hydrodynamic model, SHOC, is used to
study the ocean response to Tropical
Cyclones on the NWS
• Surface currents and temperature
response to Tropical Cyclone Bobby is
shown
Madeleine Cahill and Peter Craig,CSIRO
For Woodside
IMOS Indonesian Though Flow shelf array:
IMOS/AIMS/CSIRO
FRDC – management implication of climate change on fisheries in
Western Australia
WA Department of Fisheries, CSIRO Wealth from Oceans Flagship
Objectives
Assess future climate change
effects on Western Australia
marine environments using a
suite of IPCC model
projections, downscaled to
the key shelf regions and the
spatial and temporal scales
relevant for key fisheries
Examine the modeled shelf
climate change scenarios on
fisheries and implications of
historic and future climate
change effects
Projected changes in winter chlorophyll
concentration
Downscaling model
Climate model
A weakened Leeuwin Current and lower eddy
energetics in the 2060’s cause WA waters to be
less productive
Caring for Our Country
Identifying threats to marine biodiversity of the Ningaloo World
Heritage Area
A collaboration between:
CSIRO
– Status of World Heritage Values: reef fish, sharks, turtles
– Movement and habitat use of iconic megafauna
DEC
 Status of World Heritage Values: reef fish
DoF
 Distribution and intensity of fishing effort
Goals
Pilbara Marine Conservation
Partnership
Regional scale assessment of condition and threats to biodiversity; coral reef health, benthos, fish and
sharks, 2012-2017.
Better understand variations in coral reef health and resilience in context of key environmental
drivers; habitat/biodiversity, oceanographic connectivity, climate change, fishing pressure, nutrient
supply, cyclones
Enhance net conservation benefits to globally significant coral reef systems, detect medium and long
term trends.
Project
commenced late
2012, first tasks to
map biodiversity
and connectivity
now being
conducted by
CSIRO
Systematic biodiversity sampling
Connectivity modelling
CSIRO CARBON CLUSTER ACTIVITIES
Objectives
•
carbon inventory information on sources, speciation, stocks and
flows
•
process understanding of changes in carbon cycling resulting from
natural and anthropogenic change
Activities
1. Carbon sequestration, stoichiometry and stores potential of
representative Australian coastal ecosystems
2. Benthic community metabolism and benthic-pelagic coupling
3. Pelagic community metabolism in Australian coastal waters
4. Scaling up to regional inventories and data assimilation and
Parameter and Model Uncertainties
Activities in NW
•
Oceans Institute through Carlos
will have a focus in NW on
carbon sequestration in seagrass,
mangroves and sediment
•
Some work on pelagic C subject
to Southern Surveyor cruise
being approved (P. Thompson)
•
CC would like access to carbon
relevant data collected under
WAMSI and other projects
•
CSIRO activities will be
principally around the
development of better models,
assimilation and scaling
methods, and economic
assessment
NW shelf Management Strategies revisited
• Previous large scale effects of
fish trawling project
(Sainsbury 1987,88)
• CSIRO-WA Fisheries proposal
• “Recovery after trawling:
Resurveying the North West
Shelf after 25 years of
sustainable trawling”
• Different spatial fishing
zoning systems
• Natural experiment to
determine impacts and
recovery
Source: WA Fisheries
Summary
CSIRO is working in the Northwest across a broad range of
areas



Oceans and climate from decadal through daily processes
Biogeochemical and carbon cycling
Ecosystem characterisation, function, dynamics and biodiversity
Future
•
Would like to see more synthesis across disciplines
•
Data scarcity remains a huge challenge
•
Target tailored modelling/prediction systems initially
based on those deployed in other regions
(BlueLink/eReefs)
Improved ocean information systems and services
for government, public and industry
eReefs
The key R&D partners -BoM,
CSIRO AIMS
Goal is to build
1. A framework to explore and
predict the impact of multiple
factors such as climate change
(ocean temperature and pH) and
water quality (nutrients,
chlorophyll, turbidity)
2. An interactive, visual picture
of the reef and its component
parts, accessible to all.
What would it take to start building a
similar framework/tool for the NWS?
Thank you
Contributors: Andy Steven, Russ Babcock, Matt VanderKlift, Peter Thompson,
Ming Feng, Andreas Schiller,
Wealth from Oceans
Susan Wijffels
Theme Leader
The Dynamic Ocean
[email protected]
WEALTH FROM OCEANS NATIONAL RESEARCH FLAGSHIP
Integrated Project 2: the basics
Hydrodynamic and biogeochemical modeling using fully coupled models
Quantification of benthic and pelagic productivity
Sources of nutrients and the importance of benthic/pelagic coupling
Ecological connectivity
Catchment-ocean interactions – Regions of freshwater Influence
Climate impacts
Trophodynamic interactions
Transport and fate of nutrients and other potential contaminants from dredging and oil spills
Presentation
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