Transcript CLIMATE CHANGE: Climate Change (Scotland) Bill

Rural Development Council, October 2009
The Climate Change (Scotland) Act – A
Framework for a Low Carbon Scotland
Philip Wright, Deputy Director, Scottish Government
Overview
• UK Climate Change Act 2008
• Climate Change (Scotland) Act 2009
• Adaptation
• Delivery of emission reduction targets
UK Climate Change Act 2008
•
80% greenhouse gas emissions reduction
by 2050
• Carbon budgets – 2008-22, 34% or 42% (linked to
EU-level target increasing from 20% to 30%)
• Committee on Climate Change
• Enabling power for trading schemes
• Adaptation
• No country shares or mechanisms prescribed
Climate Change (Scotland) Act 2009
Summary
• Climate Change (Scotland) Bill passed by the Scottish
Parliament on 24 June 2009. Received Royal Assent
and became an Act on 4 August.
• 2050 target – reduce greenhouse gas emissions by
80%
• 2020 target - currently set at 42% with a power to
change based on expert advice from UK Committee
on Climate Change.
Climate Change (Scotland) Act 2009
Targets
• Targets will include Scotland’s share of international
aviation and international shipping emissions.
• Statutory framework of annual targets set in secondary
legislation.
• Annual targets will be set in batches at least 12 years
in advance (except first batch). First annual targets
(2010 – 2022) required by 1 June 2010.
Climate Change (Scotland) Act 2009
• Annual targets to be based on expert advice from UK
Committee on Climate Change.
• Future – the Act enables the designation of a Scottish
advisory body (Scottish Committee on Climate
Change) or enhanced Scottish public body.
• Limits on the use of carbon credits.
• Section 8 – domestic effort target
• Section 21 – limits for specific years
• Scottish Ministers committed to delivering emissions
reductions in Scotland.
Climate Change (Scotland) Act
What else is in the Act?
• Part 5
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Adaptation to climate change
Land use strategy (2011), muirburn, forestry
Action plan for promotion of energy efficiency
Action plan for promotion of renewable heat
Energy performance of non-domestic buildings
Energy performance of living accommodation
Climate change burdens
Tenement Management Scheme
Permitted development rights – non domestic and domestic
Development plans
Promotion of water conservation and water-use efficiency
Scottish civil estate – procurement and annual reporting
• Waste reduction and recycling.
• Part 6
• Public engagement strategy
• Assessment of the GHG impact of the Scottish budget
Adaptation
Adaptation
• UK Act Risk Assessment
• Scottish Act reports
• Climate Change Adaptation Framework
Scottish climate is already changing
Since 1961…
•Temperatures have risen in every season
•Become 20% wetter
•Growing season earlier and longer
•25% fewer days of frost
•Snow season has shortened
Source: SNIFFER A Handbook of
Climate Trends Across Scotland
By the 2050s…
If emissions continue at their present rate:
Eastern
Scotland
Northern
Scotland
Western
Scotland
Summer average
Temperature
+ 2.3ºC
+ 2.0ºC
+ 2.4ºC
Winter average
temperature
+ 1.7ºC
+ 1.7ºC
+ 1.9ºC
Summer
precipitation
- 12%
- 10%
- 12%
Winter
precipitation
+ 10%
+ 13%
+ 15%
Why is 2°C bad?
Increased risks of eg:
•Water shortage
•Flooding
•Rising sea levels
•Diseases
•Warming not shared evenly – some countries warm
more than others
Dr Rajendra K Pachauri, IPCC Chair, Copenhagen, March 2009
By the 2080s…
If emissions continue at their present rate:
Eastern
Scotland
Northern
Scotland
Western
Scotland
Summer average
Temperature
+ 3.5ºC
+ 3.0ºC
+ 3.5ºC
Winter average
temperature
+ 2.3ºC
+ 2.2ºC
+ 2.6ºC
Summer
precipitation
- 16%
- 11%
- 15%
Winter
precipitation
+ 12%
+ 17%
+ 21%
Climate Change Delivery Plan
Climate Change Delivery Plan
•Published on 17 June, before Bill passed
•Measures to meet 34% and 42% Interim targets then
proposed
•Transformational measures to set Scotland on path to
2050
•Bridge to detailed, statutory Report
on Proposals and Policies
Scotland’s Emissions
Scotland’s emissions:
Past
70 MtCO2e in 1990
58 MtCO2e in 2006……….
- 17MtCO2e on 2006
Future
41 MtCO2e in 2020………..
- 44MtCO2e on 2006
14 MtCO2e in 2050
(Including international aviation
and shipping and EU ETS)
The challenge for all parts of Scottish life
Total net GHG emissions in 2007 were 81% of base year emissions
- need to fall to 20% by 2050
100%
90%
Waste
Business (incl. industrial processes)
80%
70%
60%
50%
40%
30%
International
Aviation
International
Shipping
Public
Transport
Residential
Energy Supply
20%
10%
0%
-10%
Agriculture
How will we choose
what to use fossil
fuels for in 2050?
Land Use , Land Use Change & Forestry
2007
2050
What this means by sector?
Traded sector allocation
MtCO2e
MtCO2e
MtCO2e
22.8
17.5
-
-23%
14.2
-
-38%
2.0
1.8
+69%
-9%
1.8
+69%
-9%
3.8
4.3
-
+13%
4.3
-
+13%
5.4
-47%
-42%
5.0
-51%
-46%
11.2
-18%
-23%
10.0
-27%
-32%
Phase I traded sector
% change against ...
1990
2006
% change against ...
MtCO2e
1990
2006
20.4
Not traded in 2006 but traded in Phase II
Other, non-traded
2020 emissions - 42% world
2006
emissions
1
Aviation - domestic and international
2020 emissions - 34% world
1990
emissions
2.4
1.1
2
Other, before ETS introduced
33.2
Heat
10.2
9.3
Domestic Buildings
7.8
7.3
Non-domestic buildings
2.4
2.1
13.7
14.5
Road
9.2
10.5
Rail
0.2
0.3
Off-road
1.6
1.6
Shipping - domestic and international
2.6
2.2
5.7
2.5
1.5
-73%
-39%
1.5
-73%
-39%
14.5
12.7
12.0
-17%
-6%
11.4
-21%
-10%
Agricultural and other land use - net sources3
16.9
15.7
Agricultural and other land use - net sinks
-2.4
-2.9
Woodland
-8.2
-10.1
-7.4
*
*
-7.7
*
*
TOTAL after adjustment for EU ETS
70.1
57.6
46.3
-34%
-20%
40.5
-42%
-30%
Transport
Waste
Rural land use (excluding woodland)
Transformational Outcomes
•Decarbonised electricity generation sector by 2030
•Decarbonised heat sector by 2050 with significant
progress by 2030
•Almost complete decarbonisation of road transport
by 2050 with significant progress by 2030
•Comprehensive approach to ensure that carbon is
fully factored into decisions about rural land use
Agriculture, land use and forestry
34% world
•Improvement in livestock genetics
•Best practice in nutrient management regimes
•Further development of anaerobic digestion
•Protecting high carbon soils
•Afforestation of 10 000ha/yr
42% world
•Higher uptake of all of the above
•Likely to be through regulation
•Afforestation of 15 000ha/yr
Transformational outcomes
•Fully incorporate carbon (incl. the cost of carbon) into land use decision making
A challenge but also opportunities..
Economic opportunities in:
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Renewable energy
Carbon Capture and Storage
Energy efficiency products and services
Low carbon technologies
Stern – doing nothing and suffering the consequences
of irreversible climate change is much more expensive
than tackling emissions
Thank you
More information available at:
www.scotland.gov.uk/climatechange