Transcript climate change - Local Government Association of South Australia

Local Government and Climate
Change Adaptation
Infrastructure impacts and coastal planning
Adam Gray
Director - Environment
August 2012
DME 89573
• Climate change – what are we talking about ?
• Where are we headed – what are the climate trends
for SA?
• What does this mean for LG and how should/do we
respond?
– National projects / tools
Climate Change in a nutshell…
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The earth's "greenhouse effect" is what makes this planet suitable for life as we
know it.
The Goldilocks Principle "Venus is too hot, Mars is too cold, and Earth is just right."
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Greenhouses are structures designed to retain heat.
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The heat-trapping ability of our atmosphere is influenced by a number of factors
eg. Quantum and mix of gases
Today…..
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1960 to 2009 we released 273 billion tonnes of carbon dioxide
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In 2008, global emissions were nearly 40% higher than those in 1990
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The level of CO2 in the atmosphere by the end of 2010 was the highest in over 800,000
years
REALLY…..
can we humans
influence the
global climate???
Tomorrow?
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Global Population is approximately 7
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The UN medium estimate projects global population will peak at approx 9.2
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billion
billion by 2070
UN high estimates predict growth at the current rate will see our global population reach 14 billion
by 2100
All these people combined with our CURRENT reliance on fossil fuels =
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World COAL consumption is about 18,476,126
short tons EVERY day (2006 data)
This is expected to increase by 48% to 9.98 billion short tons by 2030
World PETROLEUM consumption in 2008 was 85.75 million barrels per day
EVERY year (and increasing) human activity puts an
ADDITIONAL 30 billion tonnes of CO2
into our thin atmosphere
So what does all this mean for
our SA climate?
Temperature trends….
An increase in average annual temperature of between 0.6oC and 2.0oC by 2030 and
1.0oC and 5oC by 2070 is predicted for South Australia.
Rainfall trends….
CSIRO and Bureau of Meteorology model projections show with a very
high level of confidence (up to 90%) that there will be a drop in winter rainfall across
Victoria and southern South Australia (Steffen 2009).
Sea level rise…..
Even moderate increases in sea level rise can result in extreme sea level events associated with
high tides and storm surges to occur hundreds of times more frequently than they currently do.
As an example, an event that now occurs once every 100 years could be
expected to occur two or three times every year by the end of the century (Steffen 2009).
In Australia more than 85% of the population lives in coastal regions and so the impacts of sea
level rise may be significant (Garnaut 2011).
Research since AR4
suggests that there is now a….
“considerable body of evidence now that points toward a sea level
rise of 0.5 – 1.0 m by 2100” and that “sea level rise… towards 1.5 m cannot be
ruled out”
Extreme events…
BUSHFIRE WEATHER……
HOT DAYS / HEATWAVES….
STORMWATER……
SEA LEVEL RISE….
How will your Council and your Community prepare
and respond?
The three Amigos!
1. Mitigate – reduce your Carbon
footprint
2. Adapt – prepare for the likely
impacts of climate change to build
resilience
3. Lead – show the way
Adapt…
• LGA Mutual Liability
Scheme Climate
Adaptation Program (CAP)
– know your exposure
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Development Planning
Asset and Infrastructure Management
Emergency Management
Community Services and Recreation facilities
Health and well being
Council Prosperity
Development Planning…
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Building in the coastal zone
Building in bushfire prone areas
Asset & Infrastructure management
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Asset life changes
WSUD
Tree management
Actions of the sea
Storm water management
Sea walls and levees – adequacy
Wastewater management
Emergency Management
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Bushfire hazard
Response and recovery planning for bushfire and coastal flooding
Integrating bushfire policy into Local Government systems
Sustainability and Environmental management
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Biodiversity management
Water quality
Community services & recreation facilities
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Safer places and heat refuges
Playground design for extreme heat
Community land management
Health and Wellbeing
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Health inspection and disease management
Home and community care
Employees, volunteers safety and welfare
Council Prosperity
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Council viability
Financial sustainability
Adaptation…LGA MLS CAP and
beyond
• State Adaptation Framework
• Integrated Vulnerability Assessments
– Regional and Sectoral Adaptation
Planning
• Tools and resources to help Councils
apply principles of climate change in
planning/policy
LGA NCCARF project
The key aim of the project is to:
Aim -
Develop tools that allow Councils to translate climate
change impacts on assets into strategic and operational
financial and asset management plans.
Outputs will include:
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Process for identifying climate change risk on assets.
Financial model to quantitatively measure the cost of road asset repair and
maintenance with climate change.
Modification to the existing IPWEA NAMS.PLUS asset and financial
management tool to include the new model.
Product support and training tools.
Journal and conference papers.
NCCARF Collaborating councils
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SA –
– Port Adelaide Enfield,
– Campbelltown,
– Wattle Range,
– Barossa, Tumby Bay.
VIC –
– Hume City,
– Bass Coast.
WA –
– Esperance.
TAS –
– Brighton.
NCCARF Key findings
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Concrete
– Carbon, temperature and humidity will have an impact. LGA report
summarises construction and maintenance options
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Steel and Galvanised coating degradation
– Australian standards guarantees the serviceability of an asset by ensuring
they are durable to environmental influence and resilient to (un)expected
extreme events.
– Where climate change alters the environment significantly then changes to
management will be required.
NCCARF Key findings (cont’d)
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Sealed roads
– Climate change affects the integrity of the surface pavement and the subbase below
– Damage includes cracking, rutting, patching and potholes
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Unsealed roads
– Climate change affects the integrity of the surface pavement and the subbase below
– Damage includes erosion, gravel loss, corrugations and potholes
LGA CADP project
• DCCEE CADP project $4.2 m available
Nationally – 15 projects
• SA Project involves 2 SA pilot Councils
• Aim is to deliver a decision pathway
and financial analysis….
LGA National Asset projects
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Analyse the climate impact
Analyse existing protection structures and strategies
Establish the profile of the assets at risk
Determine Council liability
Determine monetary value of assets at risk
Analyse actions
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Retreat
Accommodate
Defend
Defer
Do Nothing!
LGA programs/policies & resources…..
For more information contact;
Adam Gray
Director - Environment
8224 2055
[email protected]
Or refer to the LGA website at…
www.lga.sa.gov.au/goto/climatechange