Transcript New Nuclear Power and Climate Change

Welcome
New Nuclear Power and Climate Change:
Issues and Opportunities
Upcoming EBC Meetings
Nov 6 - Env. Industry Forecast w/ Paul Zofnass
Nov 8 - Ira Leighton USEPA Update in RI
Nov 14 - EPA VOC Control/Stack Testing
Workshop at EPA Lab in Chelmsford
Nov 15 - Tour of PSNH Wood Burner
Nov 28 - Risk Assessment/Risk Mgmt Program
Nov 30 - An Evening with CT DEP
Commissioner Gina McCarthy
Dec 6 – Winter Garden Party in Boston
EBC Mission Statement
The mission of the Environmental Business Council of New
England, Inc. is to advance and promote the environmental and
energy services and technology businesses in New England.
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Provides programs on current legislative, regulatory, and technology
developments that shape the future of the environmental/energy
industry
Provides direct access to regulators and industry leaders to discuss
developing issues
Offers networking and business development opportunities for its
members
Supports and promotes sustainable environmental policies and
practices for business and government
Fosters the development of future generations of the industry through
academic partnerships and mentoring and training opportunities
Provides access to market research
Scale of The Challenge
• For 1 GtC reduction in 2050
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1000 MW electrics with CO2 capture (800)
1000 MW nuclear stations
(700)
1 MW wind turbines
(1 million)
Double fuel economy of cars
(2 billion)
. . . None economic & accepted today . . .
• To achieve any target now discussed
– Price (& regulatory) penalty on CO2 emissions
– Technology advance to lower the cost of low-CO2
energy supply and use of energy services
. . . Only policy involving BOTH will work . . .
New Nuclear Power and
Climate Change:
Issues and Opportunities
Kenneth Hughey
New Nuclear Power and
Climate Change:
Issues and Opportunities
Jay Scheffer, Conference Chair
New Nuclear Power and
Climate Change:
Issues and Opportunities
Keynote Presentation
David Ropeik
Nuclear Power
Public Fears – Perception and Reality
Bounded Rationality
When we don’t have all the time, all
the information, or all the “smarts”
we need to make a completely
fact-based analytical decision.
RISK PERCEPTION
FACTORS
Psychological factors by which
we gauge what to be afraid of and
how afraid to be.
The characteristics of a risk,
apart from the facts.
1. TRUST
(More Afraid)
• Anything connected with industry
• Communications from politicians
• A decision making process that’s closed
(Less Afraid)
• Anything connected with consumer groups
• Communications from neutral experts (doctors,
academics)
• A decision making process that’s open
1. TRUST
• In the communicator
• In the organization that’s supposed
to protect you
• In the organization creating the
risk
• In the process
2. HARM V. BENEFIT
• Vaccinations, medical X rays,
prescription drugs
• Lawn chemicals
• Using a mobile phone while you drive
3. CONTROL
(ability to influence events
as they occur)
(More Afraid)
• Riding as a passenger in the front seat of
a motor vehicle
• A process in which you can NOT
participate
(Less Afraid)
• Driving a motor vehicle
• A process in which you CAN participate
4. CHOICE
(is the risk voluntary or imposed)
(More Afraid)
• Food with a potentially harmful ingredient NOT
listed on the label
• The government chooses your town for a nuclear
waste repository
(Less Afraid)
• Food with a harmful ingredient that IS listed on
the label
• INVITING the government to locate the nuclear
waste repository in your town
5. NATURAL V. HUMAN-MADE
(More Afraid)
• Industrial chemicals (drugs, pesticides)
• Technologies (GM food, nuclear power)
• Terrorism
(Less Afraid)
• Organic foods and pesticides
• Herbal remedies
• Severe weather
6. DREAD
(More Afraid)
• Anything associated with radiation (cancer)
• Pesticides (cancer)
• Plane Crash
(Less Afraid)
• Heart disease (leading cause of death in the U.S.)
• Flu
• Food poisoning
7. CATASTROPHIC or
CHRONIC
(More Afraid)
• Terrorism
• Plane crashes
• Nuclear “disaster”
(Less Afraid)
• Heart disease
• Motor vehicle crashes
• Air pollution from fossil fuels
8. UNCERTAINTY
(When we don’t have all the answers, or
we have them but don’t understand them.)
(More Afraid)
• New technologies
• Terrorism
• Complex technologies/ (nuclear power, chemicals,
GM foods)
• Conflicting scientific studies (hormone repl. therapy)
(Less Afraid)
• Artificial sweeteners, microwave ovens, electrical &
magnetic fields, fossil fuels.
9. ME OR THEM
• Terrorism to Americans in “The HoMEland”
after September 11, 2001
• Radiation from power lines when such a line
is installed near your home
• HIV/AIDS to those in high risk groups.
10. FAMILIAR V. NEW
(More Afraid)
• West Nile Virus in year one
• Terrorist attacks in America
• Avian influenza (H5N1)
(Less Afraid)
• West Nile Virus in year two, three….
• Terrorist attacks in Israel
• “Regular” Influenza
11. CHILDREN
• Plastics in children’s toys
• Abduction
• Pollution problems in schools
12. PERSONIFICATION
• Fear of child abduction rises when there is
a specific case in the news
• Fear of war rises after we see pictures of
the dead and injured
• Concern about medical errors increases
when we learn of a specific victim of a
doctor’s mistake
13. AWARENESS
(More Afraid)
• Terrorism
• Avian flu
• Nuclear power
(Less Afraid)
• Heart disease
• Influenza
• Fossil fuel pollution
New Nuclear Power and
Climate Change:
Issues and Opportunities
Kenneth Hughey
Senior Manager, Business Development
Entergy Nuclear
New Nuclear and its Role in
Environmentally Friendly
Generation
W. Kenneth Hughey
Senior Manager, Nuclear Business Development
Entergy Nuclear
Earth at night NASA
A Unique Perspective
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Our planet today
Population ~ 6 Billion
Fossil Fuels dominate electricity
generation, run factories, power
vehicles, heat homes, etc.
GHG Emissions (per capita)
North America  54 kg
Europe & Japan 23 kg
China  6 kg
25 Billion Tons Of CO2 Into
The Atmosphere Per Year
Consumption & Emission Rates
Will Increase With Economic
Development And Growth
To Stabilize GHGs  50% - 75%
Reduction in Global Emissions
Our next century
50 Years . . . . .
Economies Will Grow
Developing Countries Will Evolve
~ 9 Billion
~ 6 Billion
Energy
Demand
Population
By 2050 Global Energy Consumption Will Double
The global challenge
It took us 125 years to use the first trillion
barrels of oil…We’ll use the next trillion
in 30 years
The world consumes two barrels
of oil for every barrel discovered
Oil production is in decline in 33 of
the 48 largest oil producing countries
www.willyoujoinus.com
The global challenge
In the Next 50 Years . . . . .
More Energy Will Be Consumed Than In All
Previous History
GHG Emissions
Could Double
Our Challenge - To Produce Clean
Energy On A Global Scale.
“Clean Energy”
Renewables
Solar
Biomass
Wind
Geothermal
Renewable
Development Must
Be Strongly
Supported
Realistic Perspective – Collective impact will be quite
limited – for decades to come. OECD projects less
than 3% of world electricity demand at peak.
Reality of renewables
Want energy from renewables?
Add more states!
Entergy does not have
a crystal ball
But we do know
 World needs more energy
 Finite supply of conventional oil and gas
 Stricter environmental regulations
 America needs energy security/diversity
Nuclear energy’s potential is not fully exploited
Nuclear: A realistic option?
Consider:
 Nuclear is the largest source of emission-free
electric energy
 Nuclear is among the lowest-cost energy
 Nuclear fuel costs are stable and a relatively
small component of production cost
 Nuclear’s safety record is second to none
The answer is YES!
Entergy’s 2-track approach
Advanced Light Water Reactor
2005
2010
2015
2020
High Temperature Gas-Cooled Reactor
2025
2030
2035
2040
2045
2050
ESBWR: Design
Highlights
• 25% Less Equipment
 Cost Less to build
 Cost less to operate
 Greater Safety Margins
• Passive Safety
Technology
 No Active Safety Systems
 Offsite Power Not
Required
 Onsite Power (EDGs) Not
Required
 Operator Action Not
Required for 72 hrs
• 4500 MWt  1500-1600
The 300-pound gorilla
Transportation
• Now consumes more than 20% of
world’s energy
– 28% of total energy in U.S.
• By 2010:
– India will have 36 times more cars than in
1990
– China will have 91 times more cars than in
What’s Nuclear’s role in transportation?
1990
Hydrogen?
• In U.S., cars and light trucks are
Hydrogen today
Source: Salomon Smith Barney, EIA, EPRI
World Consumption  45 MM Tons/yr
– ~96% Produced by Steam Methane
Reforming
US Consumption  11 MM
– Releases 320 MM tons of CO2/yr
Tons/yr
– ~96% Produced by SMR
– Releases 74 MM tons of
CO2/yr
– Consumes 5% of US NG
Liquid
Fuel Production is
Supply
Rapidly Becoming Major
10%
Market
forAnnual
H2
Growth
Ammonia
Production
(50%)
Methanol
Production
(8%)
Other (5%)
A bridging market For
deployment of nuclear is
Oil Refining
(37%)