Transcript Slide 1 - climateknowledge.org

Climate Change: The Move to Action
(AOSS 480 // NRE 480)
Richard B. Rood
Cell: 301-526-8572
2525 Space Research Building (North Campus)
[email protected]
http://aoss.engin.umich.edu/people/rbrood
Winter 2012
March 20, 2012
Class News
• Ctools site: AOSS_SNRE_480_001_W12
• 2008 and 2010 Class On Line:
– http://climateknowledge.org/classes/index.php
/Climate_Change:_The_Move_to_Action
Project Timeline
• 22 March 2012
– In Class Review: Each group should prepare about a
15 minute, 5 – 10 slides, of status of project. Projects
will be in different stages, but should have a good
idea of the scope and where you are going. This will
be a time get some input and refine and focus.
– This need not be polished, but should represent
vision, structure, and some essential elements of
knowledge.
• 10 and 12 April 2012: Final presentation
The Current Climate (Released Monthly)
• Climate Monitoring at National Climatic
Data Center.
– http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/oa/ncdc.html
• State of the Climate: Global
• Interesting new document?
– OECD Environmental Outlook to 2050: The
Consequences of Inaction
Today
• An interim synthesis of lectures, readings,
discussions
Subjects that need covering
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Stabilization
Military
Interface to adaptation
Geo-engineering
Sea Level
Elements of Argument
Climate Science-Policy Relation
CLIMATE SCIENCE
KNOWLEDGE
UNCERTAINTY
PROMOTES / CONVERGENCE
OPPOSES / DIVERGENCE
POLICY
Framework Convention on Climate Change
Dangerous climate change?
Stern, 2006
Economics
• What about economics  does the cost of
climate change motivate the development
of policy, motivate action?
– Stern Report
• What are things that link society together?
Stern Report
• Considered a radical revision of climate change
economics.
– If we don’t act now it will cost between 5% and 20%
of gross domestic product (an aggregate measure of
economy.)
• Stands in contrast to many studies that usually
come to numbers of closer to 1%
– The idea that initiation of a policy with a slow growth
rate will have little impact on the economy or
environment in the beginning, but will ultimately
become important when the nature of expenditures is
more clear.
Global economic analysis
– Stern Review: Primary Web Page
– Stern Report: Executive Summary
– Nordhaus: Criticism of Stern Report
– Tol and Yohe: Deconstruction of Stern Report
Stern Review: Criticisms
• Document is fundamentally political: An
advocacy document.
• Not up to the standards of academic
economic analysis
• Not based on empirical observations of the
economy
– Observed discount rates
– Observed behavior
Economics
• We see here a wide range of projected
economic impacts
– 1 % Gross Domestic Product
– 20 % Gross Domestic Product
• Large difference strongly related to discount
rate: how fast does the cost of an investment
depreciate?
– Empirical
– Belief based evaluation of environment and impact on
most vulnerable people
Economics-Policy Relation
ECONOMIC ANALYSIS
UNCERTAINTY
PROMOTES / CONVERGENCE
KNOWLEDGE
POLICY
Economic analysis is not the
compelling catalyst to converge
the development of policy – at
least on the global scale.
OPPOSES / DIVERGENCE
Different story on the local scale.
Energy Security-Policy Relation
ENERGY SECURITY
UNCERTAINTY
PROMOTES / CONVERGENCE
OPPOSES / DIVERGENCE
KNOWLEDGE
POLICY
An integrated picture?
ECONOMIC ANALYSIS
CLIMATE SCIENCE
KNOWLEDGE
ENERGY
UNCERTAINTY
PROMOTES / CONVERGENCE
OPPOSES / DIVERGENCE
POLICY
An integrated picture?
ECONOMIC ANALYSIS
CLIMATE SCIENCE
KNOWLEDGE
ENERGY
CONSUMPTION
POPULATION
UNCERTAINTY
PROMOTES / CONVERGENCE
OPPOSES / DIVERGENCE
POLICY
Policy?
• As all of these pieces are brought to bear
on policy, the fragmentation of those
interests begins to show up in policy.
An integrated picture?
ECONOMIC ANALYSIS
CLIMATE SCIENCE
KNOWLEDGE
ENERGY
CONSUMPTION
POPULATION
UNCERTAINTY
Fragmented
Policy
PROMOTES / CONVERGENCE
OPPOSES / DIVERGENCE
Fragmented Policy
• Represents the real, rational interests of different
elements.
– short-term, long-term; local, global; poor, rich
• As a whole, however, does not work together,
and
• may collectively work against, for instance,
mitigation of climate change.
• Fragmented policy becomes, perhaps, an
accelerator or more integrated, more federal or
global policy.
Impacts
• The knowledge that comes from climate
science suggests a set of impacts
– Agriculture
– Forestry
– Fisheries
– Public health
– Water resources
– ....
An integrated picture?
ECONOMIC ANALYSIS
CLIMATE SCIENCE
KNOWLEDGE
ENERGY
CONSUMPTION
POPULATION
UNCERTAINTY
Fragmented
Policy
PROMOTES / CONVERGENCE
OPPOSES / DIVERGENCE
IMPACTS
Consideration of Impacts (1)
• Existing problem with existing system to address
the problem
– Weaknesses in the system often associated with
population stress, by vulnerable population, highly
(anti) correlated with wealth and education
• Strongly dependent on extreme events, not the
average
– Hence want to know how extreme events will change
• Not clearly and distinctly addressed by efforts to
mitigate greenhouse gas emissions
– Motivator for “Kyoto like” policy?
Consideration of Impacts (2)
• Strongest levers for addressing the problem are
– Societal capability (social integration, structure,
communications)
– Environmental warnings and alerts
– Education (first responders, general public, ....)
– Engineering (air conditioners, green spaces, ...)
Imagine your job was to reduce deaths from heat waves
POPULATION
CONSUMPTION
ENERGY
It’s going to get hotter!
MITIGATE CLIMATE CHANGE
or
USE MORE ENERGY
or
...
CLIMATE CHANGE
Integrated or systematic impacts
• Water resources, public health,
agriculture, taken in isolation rich countries
can imagine that they have technological
and engineering solutions to these
problems, but
• what about their combined impacts
An integrated picture?
ECONOMIC ANALYSIS
CLIMATE SCIENCE
KNOWLEDGE
IMPACTS
ENERGY
CONSUMPTION
POPULATION
UNCERTAINTY
Fragmented
Policy
INTEGRATED
IIMPACTS
PROMOTES / CONVERGENCE
OPPOSES / DIVERGENCE
?
What important elements are still missing?
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Law
Business
Religion
Geopolitical
Migration – what people do
Education
There are important elements still missing
• Law
– Law offers a possible entry into the “system.”
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Links policy and de facto laws
Links economic windfalls and losses
Links impacts
Links ethical considerations
....
– Promotes, perhaps, policy
From Farber: Legal Status
• Climate models establish a lower end estimate for global
temperature impacts, but the distribution is less clearly
bounded on the high side – or in simpler terms, the highend risk may be considerable. The models are better at
predicting temperature patterns than precipitation
patterns, and global predictions are considerably firmer
than more localized ones.
• Economic models are much less advanced, and their
conclusions should be used with caution. Unfortunately,
economists are not always careful about incorporating
uncertainty into their policy recommendations.
From Farber: Legal Status
• Climate scientists have created a unique institutional system for
assessing and improving models, going well beyond the usual
system of peer review. Consequently, their conclusions should be
entitled to considerable credence by courts and agencies.
• Model predictions cannot be taken as gospel. There is considerable
residual uncertainty about climate change impacts that cannot be
fully quantified. The uncertainties on the whole make climate change
a more serious problem rather than providing a source of comfort.
The policy process should be designed with this uncertainty in mind.
For instance, rather than focusing on a single cost-benefit analysis
for proposed regulatory actions, the Office of Management and
Budget (OMB), which oversees federal regulatory policy, might do
better to require the development of standardized scenarios for
agencies to use.
The Polar Bear Problem
• The picture of polar bears in the sea
motivated a lot of discussion about the
Endangered Species Act ...
– but, legal approaches have a difficult
path,cause and effect, who are the damaged
and damaging parties, what laws are relevant
...
Polar Bear as Endangered Species
So what are the legal pathways?
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Public nuisance
Clean Air Act
National Environmental Policy Act
Federal policy of pre-emption
– Less stringent federal regulations rather than more
stringent state regulations
• Like tobacco liability litigation
• Like gun liability litigation
• Endangered Species Act
National Environmental Quality Act (1969)
• Purpose
• Sec. 2 [42 USC § 4321].
• The purposes of this Act are: To declare a
national policy which will encourage productive
and enjoyable harmony between man and his
environment; to promote efforts which will
prevent or eliminate damage to the environment
and biosphere and stimulate the health and
welfare of man; to enrich the understanding of
the ecological systems and natural resources
important to the Nation; and to establish a
Council on Environmental Quality.
What are the obstacles?
• Political Question / Judicial Competence
– Court being asked, essentially, to make policy
• Standing
– The ability to show particular, or personal
harm.
• Causation
– Demonstration that a particular, say, power
plant or manufacturer has caused the harm
Law Readings on Local Servers
• Supreme Court: Massachusetts versus EPA
• Sigman: Liability and Climate Policy
• Massachusetts Petition to the U.S. Supreme
Court
• US Govt Response to Massachusetts Petition
• University of Pennsylvania Law Review (2007)
A case that has formed a path into climate change
• Massachusetts versus US Environmental
Protection Agency
– Clean Air Act
Clean Air Act
• Relevant text of Section 202(a) of the Clean Air Act”
"The Administrator [of EPA] shall by regulation prescribe
. . . standards applicable to the emission of any air
pollutant from any class or classes of new motor vehicles
or new motor vehicle engines, which in his judgment
cause, or contribute to, air pollution which may
reasonably be anticipated to endanger public health or
welfare."
• Section 302(g) of the Clean Air Act defines "air pollutant"
as "any air pollution agent or combination of such
agents, including any physical . . . substance or matter
which is emitted into or otherwise enters the ambient
air." 302(h) states that "effects on welfare" include
"effects on soils, water, crops, . . . wildlife, weather . . .
and climate . . .”
California and Clean Air Act
• When the Clean Air Act was written
California was given the ability to make
more stringent standards.
– States can choose either the California
standard or the less stringent national
standard
(A motivator for federal policy is often the
existence of many state and local
policies.)
Supreme Court Decision
• Supreme Court found in favor of Massachusetts
– Had argued that they were threatened by sea level
rise.
• There was standing.
– Had argued that carbon dioxide was a pollutant.
• Supreme Court said carbon dioxide is a pollutant based on
the definition in the Clean Air Act.
– EPA did have the regulatory authority to regulate
CO2.
Bush EPA Arguments
• That to control carbon dioxide from cars was an
issue of efficiency, which was the sole domain of
the Department of Transportation.
• That for the EPA to act would be a piecemeal
approach to the problem, against the President’s
wishes.
• That taking action on cars would have no real
effect because of other sources of CO2,
including China.
• That there was a political history that precluded
EPA from acting.
Since then
• California Attorney General Petition to
EPA
– “Global warming threatens California's Sierra
mountain snow pack, which provides the state
with one-third of its drinking water. California
also has approximately 1,000 miles of
coastline and levees that are threatened by
rising sea levels.”
Since then
• 2008: EPA has not, formally, taken action,
and even their own lawyers have been
quoted in the press as saying that EPA is
not on solid legal grounds for doing
nothing.
– A political decision.
• 2009: EPA Pressing using Clean Air Act to
regulate CO2
More News
• 2009: 2 Days before Copenhagen
– EPA Decides to Enforce
– How does U.S. Stake in Auto Industry impact
this?
Even newer news
• 2010: Bipartisan Move to Block EPA
Regulating CO2
– Text of Joint Resolution
• 2011:
– Forbes: EPA and Climate in Budget and
Government Shutdown
– NY Times: State Greenhouse Gas Initiatives
Lose Fed Support
Law vs Policy
• Law, at least with U.S. EPA, leads to the idea of
regulation.
– In general, “people” prefer policy to regulation
business risk?
• Pushes towards regulation are deferred based
on recession, recovery, political positioning
Where does litigation sit in the climate problem?
• Motivator for the development of policy.
• Law works on short-term and local scales.
– Does not, often, extend to long-term and
global scales.
• Deliberative, case-by-case
An integrated picture?
ECONOMIC ANALYSIS
CLIMATE SCIENCE
KNOWLEDGE
ENERGY
IMPACTS
LAW
CONSUMPTION
POPULATION
UNCERTAINTY
Fragmented
Policy
INTEGRATED
IIMPACTS
PROMOTES / CONVERGENCE
OPPOSES / DIVERGENCE
?
Subjects that need covering
•
•
•
•
Stabilization
Military
Interface to adaptation
Geo-engineering
Elements of the Political Argument
PA1: Just a Theory
• A common statement is that greenhouse gas is just a theory,
equating theory with conjecture.
– Theory is not conjecture, it is testable.
• Theory suggests some amount of cause and effect – a physical system,
governed by quantitative conservation equations.
– Theory is not fact, it can and will change.
– Need to consider the uncertainty, and the plausibility that the theory
might be wrong.
• Often it is stated in this discussion that gravity is only a theory.
– True, and the theory of gravity is a very useful theory, one put forth by
Newton.
– True, we don’t exactly understand the true nature of the force of gravity,
there are “why” questions.
– Formally, Newton’s theory of gravity is incorrect – that’s what Einstein
did.
• Still, it is a very useful and very accurate theory, that allows us, for example,
to always fall down and never fall up – and go to the Moon with some
confidence.
PA2: Greenhouse Effect
• This is generally not a strongly argued point. Warming of the
surface due to greenhouse gases make the planet habitable.
– Habitable? Water exists in all three phases?
• Water and carbon dioxide and methane are most important natural
greenhouse gases.
• Often a point of argument that water is the “dominant” gas, so traces
of CO2 cannot be important.
– Water is dominant … often said 2/3 rds of warming. Because there is
so much water in the ocean, the amount of water vapor in the
atmosphere is largely determined by temperature. (The relative
humidity.)
– This is where it is important to remember the idea of balance, the
climate is in balance, and it is differences from this balance which we
have co-evolved with that are important.
• Burning fossil fuels is taking us away from this balance. It is like opening or
closing a crack in the window … it makes a big difference.
PA3: What happens to this CO2
• A “new” political argument: CO2 from fossil fuels is small
compared to what comes from trees and ocean. True.
But a lot goes into trees and oceans as well. So it is the
excess CO2, the CO2 on the margin that comes from
fossil fuel burning. Not all of this goes into the trees and
oceans, and it accumulates in the atmosphere.
• There are 8.6 Petagrams C per year emitted
– 3.5 Pg C stay in atmosphere
– 2.3 Pg C go into the ocean
– 3.0 Pg C go into the terrestrial ecosystems
• Terrestrial ecosystems sink needs far better quantification
– Lal, Carbon Sequestration, PhilTransRoySoc 2008
• It’s a counting problem! One of our easier ones.
PA4: Cycles
• Some say that there are cycles, they are natural,
they are inevitable, they show that human have
no influence.
– Cycles? yes  natural? Yes
• Inevitable  There are forces beyond our control
– We can determine what causes cycle; they are not
supernatural
• Greenhouse gases change
• “Life” is involved  ocean and land biology
• Humans are life  This is the time humans release CO2
PA4: Cycles  CO2 and T
• At the turn around of the ice ages, temperature
starts to go up before CO2; hence, T increase is
unrelated to CO2
– Need to think about time and balance here …
• There are sources of T and CO2 variability other than the
radiative greenhouse gas effect.
– If CO2 increases in the atmosphere, there will be enhanced
surface warming, but is the increase large enough to change
temperature beyond other sources of variability?
– If T increases, there could be CO2 increases associated with,
for instance, release from solution in the ocean
– CO2 increases could come from burning fossil fuels, massive
die off of trees, volcanoes  have to count, know the balance.
PA4: Cycles: Ice Ages
• In 1975 scientists were predicting an ice age.
Now warming. You have no credibility, why
should we believe you now.
– In 1975, small number of papers got a lot of press
attention.
– 2010  Think scientific method
• Observations, observations, observations
• Improved theory, predictions, cause and effect
• Results reproduced my many investigators, using many
independent sources of observations
• Consistency of theory, prediction, and observations
• Probability of alternative description is very small.
PA5:
The last 1000 years: The hockey stick
Surface temperature and CO2 data from the
past 1000 years. Temperature is a northern
hemisphere average. Temperature from
several types of measurements are consistent
in temporal behavior.
 Medieval warm period
 “Little ice age”
 Temperature starts to follow CO2 as CO2
increases beyond approximately 300 ppm,
the value seen in the previous graph as the
upper range of variability in the past
350,000 years.
PA5: Hockey Stick
• This is the “hockey stick” figure and it is
very controversial. Quality of data,
presentation, manipulation, messaging.
– Rood blog
– Nature on Hockey Stick Controversy
• There are some issues with data,
messaging, emotions of scientists here,
but the data are, fundamentally, correct.
PA5: Hockey Stick: Science
• But place the surface temperature record of the
hockey stick in context using the scientific
method.
– Reproduction of results by independent researchers,
through independent analyses
– Verification of results in other types of observations 
sea level rise, ocean heat content, earlier start of
spring
– Consistency of signals with theory  upper
tropospheric cooling
– Evaluation of alternative hypotheses
PA5: Hockey Stick: Temperature source
• There has developed a discussion between those who believe in
surface temperature data and those who believe in satellite data.
– Scientifically, it should not be a matter of belief, but validation. Each
system has strengths and weaknesses. Differences should be
reconciled, not held as proof of one over the other.
• Surface: Issues of how sited, representative, urban heat island
– If ignored (wrong), then data flawed
– If taken into account (right), then data are manipulted
• Satellite data objective and accurate?
– Read the literature! Took years to get useful temperature. Every satellite is
different, calibrated with non-satellite data
• And ultimately: Scientific method
– Reproduction of results by independent researchers, through
independent analyses
– Verification of results in other types of observations
– Consistency of signals with theory
– Evaluation of alternative hypotheses
Projects
Use of climate information
• Research on the use of climate knowledge
states that for successful projects, for
example:
– Co-development / Co-generation
– Trust
– Narratives
– Scale
• Spatial
• Temporal
Lemos and Morehouse, 2005
Projects
• Broad subjects and teams defined
• Meeting 1 with Rood
– Now to early March: Project vision and goals
• Meeting 2 with Rood
– Mid to late March: Progress report, refinement of goals if needed
• Class review
– Short, informal presentation, external review and possible
coordination
• Oral Presentation: April 10 and 12
• Final written report: April 25
Project Teams
• Education / Denial
– Allison Caine
– Nayiri Haroutunian
– Elizabeth McBride
– Michelle Reicher
Project Teams
• Regional
– Emily Basham
– Catherine Kent
– Sarah Schwimmer
– James Toth
– Nicholas Fantin
Project Teams
• City
– Jian Wei Ang
– Erin Dagg
– Caroline Kinstle
– Heather Lucier
Project Teams
• University
– Nathan Hamet
– Adam Schneider
– Jillian Talaski
– Victor Vardan
glisaclimate.org
• Goal to facilitate problem solving
– Based on class experience
– Support narratives
– Build templates for problem solving
Approach to Problem Solving
Granularity
• No matter how we cut through this
problem we come to the conclusion that
there is a lot of granularity within the
problem. This granularity represents
complexity, which must be used to
develop a portfolio of solutions rather than
to classify the problem as intractable.
The previous viewgraphs have introduced
“granularity”
• This is a classic short-term versus long-term
problem.
– Ethics
– Economics
– Reaction versus anticipation
• Similarly, regional versus global
• Rich and poor
• Competing approaches
– Mitigation versus adaptation
– Transportation versus Electrical Generation
– This versus that
We arrive at levels of granularity
WEALTH
Need to introduce spatial scales as well
Sandvik: Wealth and Climate Change
LOCAL
TEMPORAL
NEAR-TERM
LONG-TERM
GLOBAL
SPATIAL
Small scales inform large scales.
Large scales inform small scales.
What is short-term and long-term?
Pose that time scales for addressing climate
change as a society are best defined by human
dimensions. Length of infrastructure investment,
accumulation of wealth over a lifetime, ...
LONG
SHORT
Election
time scales
ENERGY SECURITY
CLIMATE CHANGE
ECONOMY
0 years
25 years
There are short-term issues
important to climate change.
50 years
75 years
100 years
Structure of Problem Solving
(http://glisaclimate.org/home )
Complexity challenges disciplinary intuition
• The details of the problem often de-correlate
pieces of the problem.
– What do I mean? Think about heat waves?
• This challenges the intuition of disciplined-based
experts, and the ability to generalize.
– For example --- Detroit is like Chicago.
• The consideration of the system as a whole
causes tensions – trade offs - optimization
Knowledge Generation
Reduction
Disciplinary
Problem Solving
Unification
Integration