Regional Climate Service

Download Report

Transcript Regional Climate Service

Research on Climate Impacts in
Hamburg and Schleswig Holstein
Hans von Storch
Institute of Coastal Research, Helmholtz Zentrum Geesthacht
and KlimaCampus Hamburg
Germany
Many thanks to Jacobus Hofstede, Heinke Schlünzen, Benno Hain, Insa Meinke,
Jörg Knieling, Grit Martinez and Olaf Müller for helpful comments.
01.04.2016
Page 1
Overview
• Introduction: Exchange between climate (impact)
research and stakeholders in Hamburg und SchleswigHolstein
• Issues
- the 2o goal and the need for adaptation
- challenges
- tools: scenarios and temporal consistency
• Example: Storm surges in the Elbe estuary and along the
German Bight coast
• Regional climate servicing
01.04.2016
Page 2
Overview
• Introduction: Exchange between climate (impact)
research and stakeholders in Hamburg und SchleswigHolstein
• Issues
- the 2o goal and the need for adaptation
- challenges
- tools: scenarios and temporal consistency
• Example: Storm surges in the Elbe estuary and along the
German Bight coast
• Regional climate servicing
01.04.2016
Page 3
Climate knowledge demand, supply and brokers in
Hamburg and Schleswig-Holstein
Municipalities/regions
- coastal defense
- urban and regional
planning
- water management
Landscape oriented:
- agri- & horticulture
- forestry
- tourism
- nature conservation
National climate
service: CSC, DWD
Federal agencies:
BSH, DWD (SWA),
BAW
01.04.2016
Technology oriented:
offshore operations
(marine/coastal)
transport
Regional climate
service: [email protected]
Helmholtz
Association:
HZ Geesthacht,
Kiel; Bremerh.
Universities:
Hamburg (UHH,
HCU, TUHH)
CAU Kiel
Max-Planck
Society:
MPI of
Meteorology
Page 4
Overview
• Introduction: Exchange between climate (impact)
research and stakeholders in Hamburg und SchleswigHolstein
• Issues
- the 2o goal and the need for adaptation
- challenges
- tools: scenarios and temporal consistency
• Example: Storm surges in the Elbe estuary and along the
German Bight coast
• Regional climate servicing
01.04.2016
Page 5
2oC goal
In the last decade, CO2 emissions are
not only continuing to increase, but
accelerating.
Also the growth of CO2 concentations
in the atmosphere is acceleratimg.
A tendency towards limiting the rate
of increase does not exist at this time.
Chances for reaching the 2ogoal are small; a goal below 2o
is unrealistic.
01.04.2016
Page 6
2o goal and adaptation
A robust expectation
Global air temperature will increase
in 2100 at least by 2oC.
The effects of man-made climate
change will become more distinct
and more consequential in the next
decades.
The need for adapting to the nonavoidable change will grow – the
more the less effective a global
climate protection policy will
become.
01.04.2016
Page 7
GISS estimate, 2011
Overview
• Introduction: Exchange between climate (impact)
research and stakeholders in Hamburg und SchleswigHolstein
• Issues
- the 2o goal and the need for adaptation
- challenges
- tools: scenarios and temporal consistency
• Example: Storm surges in the Elbe estuary and along the
German Bight coast
• Regional climate servicing
01.04.2016
Page 8
issue
Conceptual challenges
manifestation
Uncertainty
Lack of knowledge is not an issue of inaccuracy.
Knowledge about future takes the form of corridors, ranges, not of
precise numbers.
Some aspects will become less uncertain, other sources of uncertainty
will emerge.
Sum of non-knowledge does not necessarily become smaller
Instationarity
Change will continue; traditional methods of estimating risks (extreme
value analysis) become inadequate.
Diversity of
influences
Other, also so far unknown, factors will become essential for designing
adaptation measures.
Changing
conditions
New problems will show up.
Social preferences, technologies and governance will change.
Medial-cultural
constructions
The public discourse is based not on contemporary scientific knowledge
but to large extent on perceptions rooted in cultural mental models
maintained by the dynamics of media and interest groups.
Time horizons
Different measures must be implemented on different time horizons
01.04.2016
Page 9
Overview
• Introduction: Exchange between climate (impact)
research and stakeholders in Hamburg und SchleswigHolstein
• Issues
- the 2o goal and the need for adaptation
- challenges
- tools: scenarios and temporal consistency
• Example: Storm surges in the Elbe estuary and along the
German Bight coast
• Regional climate servicing
01.04.2016
Page 10
tools: scenarios
Future anthropogenic climate change, or
Global Warming, is described by scenarios.
IPCC SRES scenarios
Alternative scenarios about economic and
social developments in the coming 100
years are made; from these assumptions
emissions of greenhouse gases are
estimated; the climatic effect of these are
assessed by running climate models.
The resulting knowledge are not predictions,
but projections conditional upon certain
emission scenarios.
If, however, all scenarios point to the same
development, then they collectively become
predictions – namely that temperatures as
well as sea level will rise.
01.04.2016
Page 11
Tools: temporal consistency
Are present changes indicators of
future changes?
To do so, one may compare the change in
the past, say, 30 years with the change
envisaged by the scenario calculations.
This has not often been done
systematically - one case being
temperature and precipitation in the Baltic
Sea catchment.
It is found that the ongoing temperature
change is broadly consistent with the
future expectation, but that the
consistency is limited for precipitation.
Bhend, pers. comm, 2011
01.04.2016
Page 12
Overview
• Introduction: Exchange between climate (impact)
research and stakeholders in Hamburg und SchleswigHolstein
• Issues
- the 2o goal and the need for adaptation
- challenges
- tools: scenarios and temporal consistency
• Example: Storm surges in the Elbe estuary and along the
German Bight coast
• Regional climate servicing
01.04.2016
Page 13
Christmas flood 1717
For the low-lying Northern Germany,
storm surges represent the greatest
geophysical hazard
In the past, very strong storm surges
have breached coastal defense, with
many dead and much damage.
However, after the 1962 flood, the
hazard seems mostly checked by an
efficient coastal defense, even if a
remaining (albeit small) risk prevails
Which effect will climate change
have on this hazard?
01.04.2016
Hamburg flood, 1962
Page 14
The bath tub
Graphik: Michael Schrenk
01.04.2016
Page 15
Example: Storm surges
Storm surges are a threat for the low-lying areas along the
(not only) German coasts (both North Sea and Baltic Sea)
• Climate Change as well as the improvement of waterways and of coastal
defense are associated with changes of the storm surge hazard.
• The North Sea is one of the best observed marginal seas. Here, an
accelerated increase in sea level has not (yet?) been identified in the observed
data; also storm activity remains mostly stationary, albeit undulated by decadal
variation.
• For the future, changes are to be expected. Chiefly for mean sea level (until
2100: 20-80 cm), to a lesser extent for storms (until 2100: up to 30 cm).
A need for further improving coastal defense will emerge after 2030; until
then, planning and discussion about options as well as maintaining the
present levels of protection is needed. Building structures, which allow
additional fortification at a later time is prudently done already now.
01.04.2016
Page 16
Special: estuaries
• In the estuaries of Elbe, Weser and Ems the storm surge heights have
grown - but since the 1960s more so upstream (e.g. Hamburg) than at the
mouths (e.g., Cuxhaven).
• The upstream growths are best explained by water works, related to
shipping and coastal defense (after 1962) .
• The coastal defense, which has been fortified since 1962, have provided
security against these intensified hazards.
• Possibly, the expected
intensification due to climate
change may (partly) by met
by other local modifications
(“Tideelbeprojekt”).
01.04.2016
Differences of storm surge heights
in Cuxhaven (mout of Elbe) and
Hamburg (St. Pauli) since 1900
Page 17
Options for adaptation
Technological optimization of flood
protection infrastructures
Besides enforcing traditional measures of
coastal defense, new adaptive options
need to be developed. Candidates are
• constructing coastal defense measures
such they may at a later time further be
fortified.
Graphik: Michael Schrenk
• damping of tidal energy in estuaries
(„Tideelbeprojekt“)
• improved design for constructing dykes
(more effective clay cover layer; increased
allowance for wave overtopping)
01.04.2016
Page 18
Strategy „living with water - paradigm shift in flood protection„
• River basin management to develop strategies and measures for the
whole river
• Enlargement of catchment areas to hold water back
• Building on warfts (e.g. HafenCity)
• Floating homes and cascade systems of flood protection
• Flood proof spatial
planning; building
codes, such as
cascading zoning
for the case of
defense failure,
Pasche et al., 2008
but also retreat.
01.04.2016
Page 19
Research questions
Changes
Options
• retention areas
• urban thermal comfort & health
• amount of rainwater to be managed • damping of tidal energy
• cascading zoning
• storm surge levels
• live with change, social learning
• level of groundwater
• business opportunities
• river discharge
• controlled drainage
• wind conditions
Social conditions
• coastal sea change
• perceptions, mental models of
• ecosystem services
Governance
climate change
• media framing and coverage
• acceptance of strategies and
measures
• cultural constraints
• urban planning
• cross-regional and cross-national decision making (national,
supranational)
• stakeholder involvement / public participation/civic self-organization
• adecision-making under uncertanties
• cost-benefit
analysis/ evaluation of measures
01.04.2016
Page 20
Overview
• Introduction: Exchange between climate (impact)
research and stakeholders in Hamburg und SchleswigHolstein
• Issues
- the 2o goal and the need for adaptation
- challenges
- tools: scenarios and temporal consistency
• Example: Storm surges in the Elbe estuary and along the
German Bight coast
• Regional climate servicing
01.04.2016
Page 21
How strongly do you employ
the following sources of
information, for deciding
about issues related to
climate adaptation?
Survey among regional
administrators in German
Baltic Sea coastal regions.
Bray, 2011, pers. comm.
01.04.2016
Page 22
The medial-cultural constructed
mental model of climate change
„Klimakatastrophe“
Mankind is changing climate, mostly by
excessive use of fossil energy, but also
locally by deforestation.
The weather is less reliable than
previously, the seasons are more erratic,
storms more violent. Weather extremes
have become catastrophic to an extent
never seen before.
Almost all contemporary weather extremes
are related to man-made global warming.
The cause of all this is „human greed“ and
“stupidity“, the mechanism is „revenge of
nature“. Damaging extremes are a warning
for humankind.
01.04.2016
Page 23
Regional Climate Service
1. Analysis of cultural construct, including
common exaggeration in the media.
- Determination of response options on the local
and regional scale: mainly adaptation but also
regional and local mitigation.
- Dialogue of stakeholders and
climate knowledge brokers in „Klimabureaus“.
2. Analysis of consensus on relevant issues
(climate consensus reports).
3. Description of recent and present changes.
- Projection of possible future changes, which are
dynamically consistent and possible
(„scenarios“)
„Klimaatlas“
http://www.norddeutscher-klimaatlas.de
http://www.ujscieodry-atlasklimatu.pl/
 Raw data from 12 regional climate projections
 Analyzed for Northern Germany and the Odra estuary region

Interactive user interface
01.04.2016
Page 25
Conclusions
• Man-made climate change is real and emerging. Given our present
knowledge, the present changes can only be explained consistently when
employing elevated greenhouse gas concentrations as a major factor.
• Stakeholders must understand that the knowledge about climate change (incl.
hazards) is different from the knowledge about present climate (incl. hazards): in
particular uncertainty and instationarity.
• Climate science represents a key advisory capacity for decision processes, by
- providing needed scientific knowledge, which allows embedding the complex
issue of climate change into a social context,
- explaining interdependences and efficiencies of measures used in the past and
available for the future.
• For designing suitable and socially acceptable adaptation measures, other factors
than climate change must be taken into account, among them emerging other
stressors and other options.
• The major issue is knowledge, which is available in different, often competing
types. Regional climate service is needed to align these different types.
• Decisions
about adaptation to climate change are political, not scientific.
Page 26
01.04.2016