Transcript WaterConflicts_and_CC - Tagungswerk im KuBiZ

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Climate change and water conflicts
- insights from a research project on
„Climate change, water conflicts and human
security“ (CLICO)
Christiane Gerstetter
Ecologic Institute
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Ban Ki-Moon, UN Secretary General in an address to the UN
Security Council, 2011:
“Climate change is real and accelerating in a dangerous
manner, it not only exacerbates threats to international
peace and security; it is a threat to international peace and
security.”
Assumption: Climate change leads to scarcity of resources
and as a consequence to conflicts and security risks
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Research question: What are the relationships between
climate change, water conflicts and human security?
Area studied: Mediterranean, Middle East, Sahel
Area characterised by: history of conflicts, neighbour region
of EU, significant impacts of climate change expected
(warming, water scarcity, droughts, floods, raise in sea level
etc.)
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The research project: Climate Change, Hydro Conflicts and
Human Security (CLICO)
Funding: European Commission, DG Research and Innovation
Duration: January 2010 – December 2012
Budget: ca. 2,9 Mio €
Partners: 15 universities and Think Tanks in UK, Germany, Norway,
Israel, Switzerland, Cyprus, UK, Palestine, Spain, Ethiopia, Egypt
Primarily social science
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Definitions
Human security
“safety from chronic threats such as hunger, disease and repression”
“protection from sudden and hurtful disruptions in the patterns of daily
life - whether in homes, in jobs or in communities”
Dimensions: economic security, food security, health security,
environmental security, personal security, community security and
political security
(UNDP 1994)
Conflict
Broad definition, not only including violent conflict, also local conflicts etc.
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Research components
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Statistical analysis of newspapers
Analysis of more than 70.000 newspaper articles with a view
to whether they mention intra-state/local water-related events
– conflict or cooperation - and correlation with climate or
socio-economic data
Covering 35 countries, time period: 1997–2009
Altogether more cooperation than conflicts found, more intrastate/local conflicts than international conflicts
Climate-related factors hardly trigger water-related conflicts;
institutional and economic factors are more relevant
In autocractic regimes there are fewer, but more violent
conflicts
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Statistical analysis of newspaper articles II
Hypothese on factors influencing conflictive/cooperative behaviour over
water resources and actual results
The risk of water conflicts increases through:
More pronounced climatic irregularities
Higher population density
X
X
Increased agricultural productivity
✓
Higher level of economic development
More demoractic orientation
✓
✓
Probability of cooperation increases through
Higher level of political stability
✓
http://www.clico.org/research-sp-3158/69-research/172-c-statistical-analysis/
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Case studies in CLICO
Jordan river valley,
Israel/Palestine
Gambella-Region,
Ethiopia
Cyprus
Intercontinental
biosphere, Spain &
Morocco
Tahoua-Region, Niger
Ebro-Delta, Spain
Seyhan, Turkey
Ras Sudr, Sinai, Egypt
Sarno, Italy
Alexandria, Egypt
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Ethiopia – Gambella region
Poor population
Livelihoods mostly from agriculture or
pastoralism, also hunting
Population very vulnerable to climate change,
low capacity to adapt
Expected climatic changes: increase in
quantity and variability of rain fall, more
droughts and floods
Gambella considered strategically important
region of Ethiopia (border region, Nile
contributor river flows through it)
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Ethiopia – Gambella region
Existing often violent conflicts:
Between different ethnic communities (indigenous – settler)
Often over land, water etc.
Cattle raids from groups from Sudan
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Policies and their consequences
No specific adaptation policies, idea that “modernization” or
development can foster adaptation
Major policies:
Villagisation: relocation of 45 000 households into larger and fixed
communities; each household to be assigned farm land + agricultural input
(e.g. seed) + food for transition period; official rationale (among others):
flood protection, socio-economic development, more secure living
environment
Agricultural Development-Led Industrialisation: fostering private sector
investment in agriculture for large-scale farming through cheap leases and
tax reductions; rationale: job creation, improve food security
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Results
People have been moved away from water sources – less risk of
flooding, but less access to water, problematic with higher variability of
rain fall; interviewees: “people do not have enough water” “we are
brought here to die”
People may need to adapt to new environment in new villages, may first
be worse-off
Settlement program is seen by some parts of population as attempt of
government to control them
Raise in conflicts in region (2012)
If water/land conflicts increase in region, climate change is unlikely to be
primary driver
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Climate change and availability of water in the region
IPCC (4AR) expect increase in annual average temperature, and reduction
of annual precipitation by 25% by 2070-2100
Altered pattern of precipitation
Less ground water recharge, higher rate of evapotranspiration, raise in
seal-level
Reduced amount of water in rivers
But already now water scarcity
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Political situation
Both sides depend on the same water resources
1993/1994 peace agreements contain rules on allocation of water
Creation of Joint Water Committee – both sides consider it insufficient
Palestinians needs for larger water-related projects in most areas permit
of the Israeli side (wells, sewage treatment
Water availability very different on both sides, according to UN
Israel: 300 l per day available for consumption
Palestinian territories: 70l per available for consumption
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Israeli perspective on water, conflict, climate change
No huge dependence on natural water resources through waste water
re-use and desalination plants, „water has always been scarce“
Climate change would reduce availabilty of water, but this is unlikely to
lead to conflicts; population growth seen as larger problem than climate
change
Predominant perspective is that water is a commodity and water
scarcity can be solved through technical means
Lack of water on Palestinian side is caused by Palestinians
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Palestinian perspective on water, conflict, climate change
Israel uses most of joint water resources
Not climate change, but Israeli occupation is cause
of water scarcity and conflicts
Water distribution is seen as issue of (national)
rights, access and distribution
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Results
Climate change unlikely to be important factor in exacerbating
Israeli/Palestinian conflict
In a situation of existing political conflict, the cauality is not from
ecological scarcity to conflict, but from conflict to environmental stress
and vulnerability
Conflict prevents certain reasonable actions to address situation
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Overall results
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Overall results
Climate-related, hydrological, socio-economic, institutional and political factors
may all have an impact on human security, but their relative importance
depends on the context
Political, economic and social factors so far appear to be more important drivers
of water conflicts than for example resource scarcity
Political: e.g. governance and dispute resolution mechanisms
Socio-economic: marginalisation of certain sectors of the population
Government driven strategies of adaptation can play an important role in
safeguarding human security, but they can have positive or negative
consequences
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Policy conclusions and recommendations I
State-led and funded adaptation measures are indispensable, as only states
have certain resources at their disposal; yet not all state-led adaptation
measures are good. When adaptation measures are used for a certain agenda,
they may provoke antagonism and increase, rather than resolve or provent
conflicts; participatory decision-making is important
Social security systems are essential for reducing vulnerability to climate
change and safeguarding human security
Terms like „water wars“ should not be used in the context of climate change –
such causal relations do not stand up to empirical scrutiny
Institutions and mechanisms for conflict resolution should be strengthened
Existing good political programmes and approaches should be implemented
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Links
Project: http://www.clico.org/
Final report: http://www.clico.org/final-report
Database of environmental conflicts: http://ejatlas.org/
Databse of historic water conflicts:
http://www2.worldwater.org/conflict/map/
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Lessons for educational work on climate
change
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Simple claims about causalities (“climate change will cause conflicts”)
are not necessarily correct, even if intuitively plausible >> teach people
to think critically and doubt, rather than believing in simple thruths
If you frame the discourse about climate change in a certain way, this
also favors certain political solutions, e.g.
if intensive agricultural contributes to water conflicts, rethinking the
agricultural model might be the appropriate response
if climate change produces conflicts and risks to security, responses
involving a military component might be chosen
Assume that political statements about climate change are made with
certain intentions behind them
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Thank you for your attention
Christiane Gerstetter
Ecologic Institute, Pfalzburger Str. 43-44, D-10717 Berlin
Tel. +49 (30) 86880-0, Fax +49 (30) 86880-100
[email protected]
www.ecologic.eu
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