Transcript powerpoint - the roanoke slant

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OUR CLIMATE IS
CHANGING!
OUR CLIMATE HAS ALWAYS BEEN CHANGING!
How I became a
Man-Made Global Warming
Anthropogenic (AGW) Skeptic
And
Why I Still Am
And
Why You Should Be Too
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Lars Hagen
Retired Engineer
[email protected]
www.RoanokeSlant.org
(I Have Never Worked For An Energy Company)
(except: 60 years ago I pumped gas at a Gulf station)
An AGW-Skeptic Is
An honorable, responsible and
knowledgeable person who questions the
validity or authenticity of something
purported to be factual
Skeptics Are Not:
Deniers per A. Gore
Flat-Earthers per B. Obama
Racists per J. Biden
Traitors per R.F.Kennedy Jr
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Let’s Put AGW Global Warming And
Climate Change Into Context
AGW & “1984 DoubleSpeak”
Isn’t it interesting that the AGW Proponents
with the media’s able assistance have
caused the words
“Global Warming” And “Climate Change”
To Mean:
Man-caused bad things due to
CO2 from burning fossil fuels
As if there’s never been
The NATURAL kind
The ONLY kind “so far”
How I Became Curious
About The AGW Claims
During a cruise to Alaska in July 2007
I visited the capitol, Juneau, and the
nearby Mendenhall Glacier
That’s How It All Started For Me!
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The Data Disclaimer
The “Data” contained herein is a very
small subset of the massive amount of
material available on this general subject
The Government-Guide’s Hypothesis
The Interior Dept Guide presented a
graphic of Mendenhall’s recent
250 year history and explained that
the significant retreat indicated
was a result of AGW
“Man-Caused Global Warming”
Cause vs. Effect Mismatch?
 The receptive audience all nodded their
heads in knowing approval of the AGW claim
(Gore-Mann 2006 Inconvenient Truth)
 However, I found the graphic and the data to
be at odds with the hypothesis.
 Most of the glacier-face retreat started circa
1750 and had slowed down circa 1950.
Mendenhall’s Retreat
2-1/2 miles in 200 years
Mona Loa CO2
(CO2 From all Sources)
Some Additional Examples Of Glacial
Major Retreat Starting in 1750
With No CO2 change!
(Selections based on Glaciers in the Northern
Hemisphere that I have seen and that are near
inhabited areas since circa 1750)
 Nisqually – Mt. Rainer
 Storbreen
 Nigardsbreen
WA
SW-Norway
SW-Norway
The Retreat Of Nisqually
Mt. Rainer WA
What Happened 1750 to 1950?
 1750 Was the approximate end of
the climate of “The Little Ice Age”
 The Little Ice Age ended because of the
onset of NATURAL Global Warming
 The NATURAL Global Warming that ended
the Little Ice Age and subsequent 200 years
of melting and retreat was clearly
NOT caused by CO2
(man-made or otherwise)
Greenhouse Effect In Atmosphere
Sun Heat In vs. Earth Heat Out
A Critical Complex Balance
What If NO Greenhouse Gases?
(No Life As We Know It)
Total CO2 In Atmosphere
(Significant Water Vapor H2O not included)
(CO2 = 0.035 % = 350 ppm)
CO2 Make Plant Grow - Photosynthesis
“A” Carbon-Isotope Estimate Of The Sources Of
Atmospheric CO2 (11% Man-Made)
“An” Estimate Of The Greenhouse Contributors
Literature Data Range For:
CO2: 9% to 26%
 3X range
Water Vapor: 36% to 72%  2x range
“An” Estimate Of Man-kinds AGW-CO2
Contribution To Greenhouse Effect
 CO2 Man-made in Air:
11%
 CO2 Greenhouse Effect: 9% to 26%
Therefore “a simplistic” Estimate of Man-kinds AGW
contribution to the Greenhouse Effect:
 11% of 26% => Approx. 3%
11% of 9% => Approx. 1%
 How does this Estimate of 1%  3% affect
Global Warming and Climate Change?
 What about the other 97% to 99% contributors?
My Curiosity Begot Skepticism
Based on the Glacial vs. CO2 data
I Became Skeptical about
The Two Key Claims
that formed
The 2-Legs of the Gore-Mann
“Inconvenient Truth” Claims?
1. CO2 is main cause of Global Warming
2. “Models” predicted the Hockey Stick
Gore-Mann Claim “Inconvenient Truth”
1. When CO2 is High – Temp is High
2. When CO2 is Low – Temp is Low
3. Therefore: CO2 Drives Temp !
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(Note the half-million year time scale)
Changing From Half-million year to
50K year time scale reveals
a very different view
A Larger-Scale Of This Graphic Shows:
Temperature Changes Preceded CO2
Changes By Hundreds Of Years!
Cause And Effect
Correlation/Tracking Doesn’t Prove Causation
(Chapter 1 of every statistics text)
Also
IF Temperature Changes Preceded The
CO2 Changes By Hundreds Of Years
THEN
CO2 Was NOT The Cause Of The Temperature
Changes Shown
In “The Inconvenient Truth”
And That Claim Is Falsified
The Gore-Mann Model Hockey Stick
(The Sum of All Fears)
(Famine & Plague & Pestilence & Death)
The “Two False Legs” of the Gore-Mann
“Inconvenient Truth” Claims
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1. CO2 is main cause of Global Warming:
Historically Falsified
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2. “Models” predicted the Hockey Stick:
There is NO Hockey Stick
Current Models are Unverified and
Massively Incorrect & Divergent
NASA Data: +0.8 deg-C in 130 yrs
Does +0.8 deg in 130 years look like a crisis
compared to earth’s historical natural variations?
NASA Data: No Significant Change
In Past 17 Years (No Hockey Stick)
(A lot of months were warm & a lot were cool)
19 Disparate & Divergent Models vs. Reality
Were The Last Few Summers Record Hot?
Back to the 30s Déjà Vu – Again
(Note the natural yearly variability Warm & Cool)
How Are The Polar Bears?
Plus 1250 Bears in 20 years
Apparently bears do it in the woods and on the ice too
Note the Natural Yearly Variability
No Tracking Against Increasing CO2
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The Seas Are Rising
And have been -- well before AGW-CO2
Many shorelines are sinking
something about Plate Tectonics
What About Severe Weather Events?
 Contrary to the “News”: Our Severe
Weather Events are not new or unique and
there is no evidence they are caused by
AGW-CO2 and History Belies the
hypothesis that they are!
 “In last 100 yrs US population has tripled
100 million in 1910 to 300 million in 2010
We are now a “Target Rich Environment”!
With 24-7 Hyper-TV-Coverage!
Let’s Put Some Record Severe
Weather Events in Perspective
& Context With AGW-CO2
1900 Hurricane Galveston Tx -- 8,000 Killed
Population: 1900 = 38,000 now = 58,000
No Man-Made AGW CO2!
The Great Tri-State Tornado of 1925
No Man-Made AGW CO2!
 The Great Tri-State Tornado of Wednesday,
March 18, 1925, is the deadliest tornado in U.S.
history. Inflicting 695 fatalities, the tornado killed
more than twice as many as the second deadliest,
the 1840 Great Natchez Tornado.
The continuous 219 mile track left by the tornado
was the longest ever recorded in the world as it
crossed from southeastern Missouri, through
southern Illinois, then into southwestern Indiana.
It is recognized by most experts as an F5 tornado,
the maximum damage rating issued on the Fujita
scale
The Mississippi River Flood of May 1927
No Man-Made AGW CO2!
Most destructive river flood in the history
of the U.S.; 500 killed; 600,000 homeless
The sheer landmass involved in this flood
makes it incredibly noteworthy. Across
Illinois, Missouri, Kentucky, Tennessee,
Arkansas, Mississippi and Louisiana, some
16 million acres of land (26,000 square
miles) were inundated with water from the
mighty Mississippi.
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At Vicksburg, Mississippi, May 1927
the river was 80 miles wide.
The Great Blizzard of 1888
No Man-Made AGW CO2!
 One of the most severe recorded blizzards in
the history of the United States of America.
 More than 400 people died from the storm and
the ensuing cold, including 200 in NY City
 Snowfalls of 20–60 inches fell in parts of New
Jersey, NY, Mass., and Conn,
 Sustained winds of more than 45 MPH
produced Snowdrifts in excess of 50 feet.
 Railroads were shut down
5 Record US Weather Events with
“NO” Man-Made AGW-CO2
Record Wild Fires 1825 – 1918 No AGW-CO2
 The Miramichi Fire, 1825, was one of the worst forest
fires in North American history. More than 3 million acres
had burned and at least 160 people killed.
 Great Peshtigo Fire, Oct 1871, a firestorm that ravaged
the Wisconsin countryside, leaving more than 1,500
dead, the most fatalities by fire in U.S. history.
 The Great Hinckley Fire of 1894 ravaged more than
200,000 acres and claimed at least 418 lives — one of
the deadliest wildfires in U.S. history.
 The Great Fire of 1910, believed to be the largest single
fire in recorded U.S. history. It burned more than
3 million acres in Idaho, Montana and Washington,
roughly the size of Connecticut. There were 87 fatalities
from the fire and 78 of those were firefighters.
 The Cloquet Fire of 1918, claimed nearly 500 lives in a
single day. 38 communities had been razed to the ground.
Record Wild Fires 1825 - 1918
No Man-Made AGW CO2!
Let’s Put ClimateGate & AGW-CO2
& Global Warming & Climate Change
Secrecy Into Context
To View ClimateGate Video
Click on link on index page
to load down the video
after viewing this PowerPoint
The Best 2 minute news
coverage of ClimateGate
Virginia’s Own ClimateGate
Michael Mann & UVA Stone Wall
(Note: The “Mike’s Nature Trick” in the Jon Stewart
video is UVA’s very own Michael Mann)
 UVA has defied FOIA requests to release Prof.
Michael Mann’s pro-AGW-data that was paid
for by the TaxPayers.
 UVA gleefully released (AGW-Skeptic)
Prof. Patrick Michaels files to Sierra Club
without delay or fanfare or legal obstructionism
 So much for fairness in the name of
Science and Transparency.
Fear Mongering Roanoke Times Style
Nothing In Context Here!
SCIENCE & LAW
IN BOTH SCIENCE AND LAW IT IS
INCUMBENT UPON THE OFFENSIVE TEAM
TO
PROVE THEIR HYPOTHESIS WITH FACTS
AND NOT WITH CONCENSUS OR
FEAR-MONGERING OR SLANDER
 THE DEFENSIVE TEAM NEEDS TO
ESTABLISH SUFFICIENT DOUBT
TO PREVENT
FAULTY CONCLUSSIONS
AND
MISDIRECTED OUTCOMES
SUMMARY
(Click to Advance)
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 EARTH’S CLIMATE HAS ALWAYS BEEN
CHANGING WITHOUT MANKINDS INPUT
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 THE AGW MODEL(S) PROJECTIONS HAVE
BEEN AND ARE SERIOUSLY FLAWED
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 THE ACTUAL AGW-CO2 CONTRIBUTION TO
GLOBAL WARMING IS NOT CLEAR (APPEARS
TO BE MINIMAL COMPARED TO NATURE)
THEREFORE
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YOU SHOULD BE A RESPONSIBLE SKEPTIC!
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Responsible Skeptics Should
(Click to Advance)
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Question the Secrecy of the AGW data
Question the Validity/Veracity of the AGW Models
Question the Sources of AGW Funding and
Resultant Motivations
Question the Absence of Real Open Scientific
Debate
Question the Uniqueness/Context of Weather
Events & Their Connection to AGW-CO2
Develop Knowledge of The Leading Skeptical
Scientists and their work
Develop Knowledge of Leading Skeptics
and Their Work
• Heartland Institute:
www.Heartland.org
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• Virginia Scientists & Engrs for Energy and
Environment:
www.VA-SEEE.org Prof Fred Singer
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• CATO Institute: Prof Patrick Michaels
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• Youtube 75 minute Documentary Video by
BBC:
The Great Global Warming Swindle
My Novice Hypothesis
The Natural Global Warming That Ended The Little Ice Age
In 1750 Is Still Warming Our Buns Today