Transcript WBCSD - C. Kornevall

WBCSD Project:
Energy Efficiency in Buildings
World Business Council for
Sustainable Development
EURIMA
May 31, 2007
Budapest
Talking points




A few words about WBCSD
Energy and Climate change
Building Project - EEB
Questions
World Business Council for
Sustainable Development
2
WBCSD
Coalition of 190 leading companies
 112 headquartered in EU and G8 countries
 Market capitalization: USD 6 trillion
 Regional network partners in 60 countries
World Business Council for
Sustainable Development
3
Who are we?
WBCSD Member Companies
World Business Council for
Sustainable Development
4
Geographic Overview of WBCSD
Members
Europe-EU
North America (incl. Mexico)
Asia (Japan & Korea)
65
Europe - Other
Latin America
Central & Eastern Europe
Oceania
32
Asia - Other
49
Africa
Middle East
World Business Council for
Sustainable Development
5
Why do companies join?
 Providing a business vision on Sustainable Development(SD)
An antennae for emerging issues and trends
 Advocating the business case for SD
Influencing the debate and public policy
 Bringing a collective business voice
“We can punch above our weight”
 Providing a platform for leading companies and
senior level decision makers
 Delivers learning by doing and by sharing
World Business Council for
Sustainable Development
6
Talking points




A few words about WBCSD
Energy and Climate change
Building Project - EEB
Questions & discussion
World Business Council for
Sustainable Development
7
Climate change




“It’s show time for climate change”
Public opinion is at “a tipping point”
A growing sense of urgency in society
….but no strong actions…..
World Business Council for
Sustainable Development
8
A carbon constrained world
September 2006
World Business Council for
Sustainable Development
9
The Context
Challenges
 We do need energy….more energy..much more…
 Strong growth in demand and investments
• Developing countries : new capacity
• OECD: replacements
 Climate Change messages:
• Don’t go over 2Co global warming
• Stay within the range of 450 – 550 ppm carbon
concentration by 2050
• “Cheaper to act now than wait” (Stern)
 Next 10 years of actions and investments crucial
World Business Council for
Sustainable Development
10
Global Carbon Emissions, GT
High and low carbon pathways
16
WRE 450 (IPCC)
WRE 550 (IPCC)
14
Theoretical carbon
emissions profiles
published in IPCC 3rd
Assessment Report
WRE 1000 (IPCC)
12
10
8
6
4
2
0
2000
2010
2020
2030
World Business Council for
Sustainable Development
2040
2050
11
« Five ” in our energy system
Oil
Biomass
Gas
Coal
Nuclear
Renewables
Primary Energy
Power
Generation
Direct combustion
Industry and
Manufacturing
Liquids
Final Energy
Mobility
Energy
Energy
Energy
Buildings
Consumer
Choices
World Business Council for
Sustainable Development
12
Options for change – technological
and behavioural
Emission reduction
Renewables
A further shift
to natural gas
Bio-products
Carbon capture
and storage
Nuclear
power
Energy conservation and efficiency
Mass
transportation
Road
transport
Buildings
World Business Council for
Sustainable Development
Low energy
appliances
Doing things
differently
13
Can all that change tomorrow??
Many advocate that a much more rapid
change in our energy infrastructure is the
only solution to the threat of climate
change. However:
 Major transitions at the global level
will take time to implement
 The speed with which new
technologies diffuse depends on
many factors.
World Business Council for
Sustainable Development
14
Size and lifetime matter !!
The rate of technological
change is closely related to
the lifetime of the relevant
capital stock and equipment
Buildings 45+++ years
Hydro 75+ years
Coal power 45+ years
Nuclear 30 – 60 years
Gas turbines 25+ years
Motor vehicles 12 – 20 years
5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 55 60 65 70 75 80 ++
World Business Council for
Sustainable Development
15
Opportunity starts at the
national / sectoral level
A. Opportunity Wedges (National)
B. National/Sectoral Goals & Targets
(Developed Country Example)
Buildings – adopt new country building
standards, design awareness
1000
CO2 Emissions, MT per annum
C. National Policies
Efficiency
800
Buildings
Industry
Domestic
Industry – Sectoral agreements, emissions
trading, technology standards
xx % p.a.
through to 20xx
Domestic – carbon labeling, increased
product standards (e.g. standby energy)
Renewable Energy – renewables targets.
600
Power
Renewables xx MW p.a. by 20xx
Generation CCS
xx tonnes CO2 p.a.
400
Mobility
National CO2
trajectory
200
Bio-fuels
Efficiency
Choice
Target
Vehicle Efficiency
Renewable Power
Buildings
Domestic
Biofuels – targets, support for
xx litres p.a. by 20xx manufacturing, CO labeling
2
xx mpg by 20xx
Hybrid / Diesel uptake Vehicle Efficiency - support technology,
incentives, sectoral agreements
Mass transit
0
2005
CCS – funding for infrastructure, tax cuts
on capital investments, price signals for
carbon via emissions trading
Mobility Choice - consumer incentives,
promote public/private partnerships for
transport networks
2050
Mobility - Fuels
Mobility Choice
CCS
Industry
Other Actions
World Business Council for
Sustainable Development
16
We need a global framework…
Two key intergovernmental processes
 Formal climate negotiations / UNFCCC
• Stalled at present
 G8 + 5 Gleneagles Plan of Action
• Can help bring the UNFCCC negotiations “back to
life”
World Business Council for
Sustainable Development
17
The Complimentary Roles of
Business and Governments
 Two key questions from governments on
business and climate change
• How far can business go on its own, based on the
normal operations and investments?
• How can governments facilitate and enhance
further actions by business?
Not good enough answers provided by Business
World Business Council for
Sustainable Development
18
A new direction is needed
World Business Council for
Sustainable Development
19
Talking points




A few words about WBCSD
Energy and Climate change
Building Project - EEB
Questions & discussion
World Business Council for
Sustainable Development
20
Project Vision
A world where buildings consume zero net energy
World Business Council for
Sustainable Development
21
Our “argument”
climate change is urgent
buildings can and should be zero net energy
building energy use can be cut dramatically now
there are business opportunities
there are barriers preventing progress
these barriers can be overcome
World Business Council for
Sustainable Development
22
CONTRIBUTING ORGANIZATIONS
Co-Chairs
Core
Core
Sponsoring
Lafarge
DuPont
CEMEX
Arcelor
UTC
EDF
GDF
BP
Secretariat
Philips
Kansai
ITT
WBCSD
TEPCO
RioTinto
Sonae Sierra
Approached: Arup, GE, IKEA, JCI, Nexity, OwensCorning, WalMart,
Allianz, Shell, Skanska, Swiss Re …
Institutions: Int’l Energy Agency, UN Environment Program, Lawrence
Berkeley National Labs, Int’l Institute for Energy Efficiency Economy,
PassivHaus, Renewable Energy and Energy Efficiency Partnership, China
MOC…
World Business Council for
Sustainable Development
23
Detailed Work Plan
Detail work plan and commitment in place
Formally
Announce
Project
(Beijing)
Setting
Direction
Report
Facts &
Trends
Report
2006
2007
Assurance Group
Opportunity
CEO Gate
Industry
Final
Response (Action Plan)
Report
Report
2009
2008
Assurance Group
Design/Develop
CEO Gate
Assurance Group
Validation
CEO Gate
Local EEB with the Regional Network
World Business Council for
Sustainable Development
24
BUILDING SECTOR, BY REGION
Buildings' Floor Space, 2003
Floor Space (billion m2)
40
35
Total area
30
25
Commercial
20
Residential
15
10
5
0
China
EU-15
Japan
US
Floor Space (m2)
Buildings' Floor Space per Capita, 2003
90
80
70
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
Area per capita
Commercial
Residential
China
EU-15
Japan
US
Source: WBCSD EEB Phase I Facts & Trends Equipment Sector Report
World Business Council for
Sustainable Development
25
ENERGY CONSUMPTION, SOURCES
Site AEC (TWh)
Buildings' Site Energy Consumption, 2003
Buildings' Site Energy by Fuel, 2003
12000
100%
10000
80%
heat
electricity
8000
6000
Commercial
60%
Residential
40%
4000
biomass
natural gas
petroleum
20%
2000
0
coal
0%
Brazil
China
India EU-15 Japan
US
Brazil
India
EU-15 Japan
US
Commercial Buildings' Site Energy by Fuel
Buildings' Primary Energy Consumption, 2003
100%
10000
8000
Commercial
6000
Residential
4000
Site AEC (%)
12000
Primary AEC (TWh)
China
heat
80%
electricity
60%
biomass
natural gas
40%
petroleum
20%
coal
2000
0%
0
Brazil China
India
EU-15 Japan
Brazil China India EU-15 Japan
US
Source: WBCSD EEB Phase I Facts & Trends Equipment Sector Report
World Business Council for
Sustainable Development
US
26
CONSUMPTION FORECAST
Building Energy Consumption by Region
Worldwide Building
Energy Consumption
9
8
Commercial
Residential
7
Commercial
33%
6
TWh
51%
5
32%
4
14%
3
Residential
67%
130%
98%
114%
25%
30%
2
-4%
120%
4%
1
2002
21.3 TWh
Source: International Energy Outlook, EIA, 2005
0%
0
'02 '25
USA
'02 '25
'02 '25
'02 '25
Western FSU/
China
Europe Eastern
Europe
'02 '25
'02 '25
Japan
Other
Emerging
Source: International Energy Outlook, EIA, 2005
Note:
Canada, Mexico, Australia and New Zealand not represented in
the chart; they add up to 1.2 TWh in 2002
World Business Council for
Sustainable Development
27
DEMAND BY SUBMARKET
900
Food Service
750
Area Intensity, kW-hr/m2
Increasing Intensity
Energy Intensity (per unit area) vs. Total Energy Usage
US Commercial Buildings
Food Sales
600
Health Care
Other
450
Public Order and Safety
Lodging
Public Assembly
Service
300
150
Religious Worship
Mercantile (incl mall)
Education
Office
Warehouse and Storage
Vacant
0
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
Total Usage, TW-hr
Source: Energy Information Agency, 2003 Commercial Buildings
Energy Consumption Survey
Increasing Consumption
World Business Council for
Sustainable Development
28
ESTABLISH BASELINE FACTS
Detail Matrix: Work in Progress
Brazil
China
India
Japan
Europe
US
Gross Demand &
Demand Type &
Suppy Type &
Characterization
Envelope
Growth Rates
Carbon Output
Intensity
Efficiency
Gross
Demand &
Demand Type & Efficiency
Suppy Type &
Characterization
Envelope
Growth Rates
Carbon Output
Intensity
Efficiency
Gross
Demand &
Demand Type & Efficiency
Suppy Type &
Characterization
Envelope
Growth Rates
Carbon Output
Residential
Intensity
Efficiency
Efficiency
Gross Demand &
Demand Type &
Suppy Type &
Characterization
Envelope
Growth
Rates
Carbon Output
Residential
Intensity
Efficiency
Gross
Demand &
Demand Type & Efficiency
Suppy Type &
Characterization
Envelope
Growth Rates
Carbon Output
Residential
Gross
Demand
&
Demand
Type
&
Suppy
Type
&
Intensity
Efficiency
Efficiency
Characterization
Envelope
Growth Rates
Carbon Output
CommercialResidential
Intensity
Efficiency
Efficiency
CommercialResidential
Commercial
Residential
IndustrialCommercial
IndustrialCommercial
Industrial
Commercial
Industrial
Industrial
Availability
Consistency
Submarkets
Count
Area
Population
Tot Demand
Areal Intensity
Per Capita Intensity
GDP Intensity
No. Floors
Construction
Window Efficiency
Wall Efficiency
Heating
Cooling
Ventilation
Water Heat
Lighting
Cooking
Refrigeration
Office Equip
Electricity
Nat Gas
Fuel Oil
Kerosene
LPG
District
Biomass
Solar
Wind
Fuel Cell
CHP
World Business Council for
Sustainable Development
Statistics
Short Term
Long Term
Bldg Size
Bldg Count
Total
Per Bldg
Per Capita
29
Energy and people
 What people think they spend energy (Germany)
Car
Hot water
Heating
El.Equip
Don’t know
Think
Reality
14 %
18 %
25 %
39 %
3%
31 %
8%
53 %
8%
n.a
Source: PassivHaus
World Business Council for
Sustainable Development
30
Objectives for Market Research study
To measure, in different regions of the world – specifically Japan,
China, India, Brazil, the US, and EU (Spain, France and Germany):
• The perception of sustainable buildings
• The level of understanding and level of maturity of this new concept
• The readiness to adopt sustainable buildings and the constraints
faced by investors, architects and contractors
World Business Council for
Sustainable Development
31
We used qualitative then quantitative interviews for
different audiences
Qualitative research
Opinion
leaders
Regulators




 Policy
makers
 Politicians
 Regulators
Finance
community
 Investment
bank
constructio
n-industry
analysts
 Investment
bank real
estate
financiers
 Property
investment
45 interviews
In-depth face-to-face and telephone interviewscompanies
Architects
Journalists
NGOs
Academics
•
•
Quantitative research
Specifiers
and
Developers
 Architects
and
engineers
 Specifiers
and
developers
 Builders
and
contractors
Agents and
Landlords
 Real estate
agents
 Profession
al landlords
Corporate
Owners and
Tenants
 Corporate
property
managers
• 150-200 interviews per market (total = 1423)
• 15 minute telephone questionnaire
Focus of this presentation
Qualitative research helped us to
optimise the quantitative research design
Excluded
World Business Council for
Sustainable Development
 Nonprofessional
landlords;
domestic
 Households
32
EXPERIENCE BY COUNTRY
Aware
Considered
Been involved
France
83%
32%
27%
30%
8%
Germany
98%
69%
67%
67%
45%
Spain
87%
32%
28%
33%
9%
USA
83%
51%
43%
36%
16%
Brazil
82%
33%
27%
35%
9%
China
79%
36%
28%
34%
10%
India
64%
21%
13%
39%
5%
Japan
13%
40%
5%
50%
3%
Source: WBCSD EEB Market Research, 2007
World Business Council for
Sustainable Development
33
EXPERIENCE BY SECTOR
Source: WBCSD EEB Market Research, 2007
World Business Council for
Sustainable Development
34
When asked about their role in driving change, very
few of our decision-makers see their role as leading
the move to sustainable building
Q16. What do you see as the role of your company in the adoption of sustainable building
practices
All respondents
Specifiers/
developers
Agents/ owners/
landlords
Corporate
tenants
Driving/ leading adoption
Adopting practices
incrementally, as soon
they are tried and tested
Adopting practices
incrementally, as they
become industry standard
Only adopting practices as
clients require it
N/A
Only adopting practices as
regulations require it
0%
25%
50%
0%
25%
50%
0%
25%
50%
0%
25%
50%
Percentage of respondents
Source: WBCSD EEB Quantitative Research
World Business Council for
Sustainable Development
35
Some of our findings
As it relates to energy efficiency and buildings …
Low awareness of environmental impact & cost of
green
Market
Perceptions
Low leadership actions, sector is complex &
fragmented
Know-how and experience is lacking
Holistic approach is key
Business
Levers
Lack of financial instruments
Energy efficiency is not an investment criteria
Behavior and cultural lifestyles are key factors
World Business Council for
Sustainable Development
36
Cross sector factors for industry
transformation
POLICY &
REGULATION
Finance,
Design,
Ops
Materials
Energy
BEHAVIORS
Equipment
INTEGRATION
FINANCING
& INNOVATION
World Business Council for
Sustainable Development
37
Project Vision
A world where buildings consume zero net energy
World Business Council for
Sustainable Development
38
EEB contacts
WWW.wbcsd.org/web/eeb
WWW.eeb-blog.org
World Business Council for
Sustainable Development
39
WBCSD Project:
Energy Efficiency in Buildings
World Business Council for
Sustainable Development
Staff meeting EEB project
April 17, 2007
Geneva