cdema - Global Framework for Climate Services

download report

Transcript cdema - Global Framework for Climate Services

Defining Climate Service
Needs within the Context of
Comprehensive Disaster
Management
Liz Riley
Deputy Executive Director
Caribbean Disaster Emergency Management Agency
Barbados Town and Country Planning Society Seminar
October 28, 2011
Barbados
1
Presentation Overview




CDEMA – Caribbean Disaster Emergency
Management Agency
The Caribbean Hazards and Climate Change
Comprehensive Disaster Management (CDM)
– A Framework for Engagement on the
GFCS
Needs going forward
2
What is CDEMA?




Caribbean Disaster Emergency Management
Agency (CDEMA - formally CDERA) is the regional
inter-governmental Agency responsible for disaster
management in the Caribbean Community
(CARICOM)
CDERA established in 1991 by an Agreement of
Heads of Government of CARICOM
September 1, 2009 – official date of transition from
CDERA to CDEMA
18 Participating States – Haiti and Suriname joined
September 1, 2009
3
CDEMA Participating States
4
The Caribbean Hazards Landscape



Caribbean region is
very prone to
hazards (natural
and man-made)
Climate variability
and change likely to
increase frequency
and severity of
hydro
meteorological
events
Increased exposure
to natural hazards
within the last two
decades
Spatial distribution of hurricanes and storms in the
5
Caribbean Region (1900-2004)
SOURCE: EM-DAT: The
OFDA/CRED International
Database 2008
6
Hazards of Concern at the
Regional Level
Regional Natural Hazards in
Focus
Source
Phenomena
Hydrometeorological
Hurricanes
Wind Storms
Storm surges
Floods
Seismic &
Geological
Volcanic activity
Earthquakes
Mass movements
Tsunamis
Biological
Epidemics
Pandemics
7
Selected Hazard Impacts
in the Caribbean
TIME
PLACE
DISASTER
1988
1989
Jamaica
5 countries
Hurricane Gilbert 65% GDP
Hurricane Hugo US$412 M
1999
Dominica
Hurricane Lenny 53% GDP
2004
2004
Haiti & DR
Grenada
Flooding
Hurricane Ivan
2004
2005
2010
Jamaica
Guyana
Saint Lucia
Hurricane Ivan
US$592 M
Flooding
60% GDP
Hurricane Tomas 334M US$
Various sources: Collated by CDEMA
IMPACT
270 deaths
US$895 M
8
Storm Surge, Palmiste Grenada,
Hurricane Lenny, 1999
9
Landslide – Marc, Saint Lucia
(Hurricane Tomas 2010)
10
Gouyave, Grenada
Hurricane Lenny
11
Climate change impacts




Sea Level Rise – IPCC 3rd Assessment Report avg
5.0mm/yr over the 21st Century
Temperature increases: 11 of the 12 warmest years on
record have occurred in the last 12 years. If
concentrations of all GHG and aerosols kept constant at
2000 levels, further warming of 0.1degrees C would be
expected *
‘Very likely” that extreme heat events and heavy
precipitation will become more frequent*
‘Likely” that future tropical cyclones will become more
intense with larger peak wind speeds and more heavy
precipitation*
* 4th IPCC Assessment Report
12
Climate change impacts

Climate change impacts will vary from
country to country, region to region, may
also vary from community to community
since impacts are linked to existing
vulnerabilities
13
Potential impacts from a 1 m sea
level rise in the Caribbean



Nearly 1,300 km2 land area lost (e.g., 5% of The
Bahamas, 2% Antigua and Barbuda).
Over 110,000 people displaced (e.g., 5% of population
in The Bahamas, 3% Antigua and Barbuda).
At least 149 multi-million dollar tourism resorts
damaged or lost, with beach assets lost or greatly
degraded at many more tourism resorts.
14
Potential impacts from a 1 m sea
level rise in the Caribbean


Over 1% agricultural land lost, with implications for food
supply and rural livelihoods (e.g., 5% in Dominica, 6%
in The Bahamas, 5% in St. Kitts and Nevis).
Transportation networks severely disrupted, including
loss or damage of 21 (28%) CARICOM airports, lands
surrounding 35 ports inundated (out of 44) and loss of
567 km of roads (e.g., 14% of road network in The
Bahamas, 12% Guyana, 14% in Dominica).
Source:
Delivering transformational change 2011-21
Implementing the CARICOM ‘Regional Framework
for Achieving Development Resilient to Climate Change’ (2011) quoting Caribsave (2010)
15
Economic Costs of Climate Change projected
annual cost of inaction by 2025 (taking into
account increased hurricane damages, loss of
tourism revenue, and infrastructure damages)
25.00%
20.00%
15.00%
10.00%
5.00%
0.00%
Antigua and
Barbuda
Bahamas
Barbados
Source:
Delivering transformational change 2011-21
Implementing the CARICOM ‘Regional Framework
Dominica
Grenada
Jamaica
for Achieving Development Resilient to Climate Change’ (2011) quoting Caibsave 2010
Trinidad and
Tobago
16
Redefining Development
“Development must be
redefined to be sensitive to
disaster and climate risks”
Global Assessment Report 2011
17
Comprehensive Disaster Management
(CDM) – The Caribbean Brand of
Disaster Risk Management
All phases
• Prevention, preparedness,
recovery
• Mitigation & response
Empowerment of
partners
All hazards &
climate change
• lead dissemination and
• advocacy
• Natural and
• Man-made
Strategic partner
alliances eg.
Disaster risk
reduction
• CTO
• CHA
• ACS
• planning
• policy
Culture of safety
18
CDM Strategy 2013-2023
•
10 year strategy – longer planning horizon
•
Deeper integration of climate change adaptation
issues under the umbrella of resilience
•
•
Inclusion of niche groups to be targeted – Finance
and Economic Planning. Physical Planning. Climate
Change Focal Points and Environment
Operational Readiness and strengthening of Early
warning Systems
4/1/2016
19

The Global Framework for Climate
Services aims to enable society to
manage the risks and opportunities
arising from climate variability and
change better, especially for those
who are most vulnerable to such risks
20
Climate Services Needs of
Disaster Managers

Drought prediction information

Climate Outlook forum (CARICOF) precipitation
information at a minimum on a quarterly basis –
informs ground saturation and by extension flood
scenarios
21
Existing interface mechanisms and
recommendations for improvements
•
User-Interface Platform for operation
•
•
•
DEWETRA platform is established and being utilized. CDEMA CU
therefore views this as the platform to be utilized going forward
within our Participating States for national and regional level
purposes
Improvements required relate to the expansion of the Platform
into the other 8 CDEMA Participating States; strengthening of
existing spatial data sets etc.
Space for Dialogue exists through national committees for disaster
management
•
Improvements – integration of climate service analyzed results
into national and regional level plans, protocols and procedures
(for emergencies) and for longer term development planning.
The latter through the lens of longer term climate change. 22
Capacity development needs to
implement the GFCS at regional
and national levels

Need for better understanding of the GFCS amongst
disaster Managers

Expansion of the DEWETRA Platform application to the
broader Caribbean Region (training, data collection,
training in interpretation for national personnel)

Strengthening of the sustainable real time hydrological
data collection network to serve multiple purposes

Population of the platform with other relevant spatial
layers
23
Institutional arrangements, partnerships
and processes required to operationalize
the GFCS at the national level
•
National Level:
•
Institutional Arrangements: Mechanisms exist with Disaster
Managers through the National Disaster Management Committees.
Mechanism needs to be strengthened to ensure the national
committee is risk oriented.
•
Retooling of national Meteorological services to deliver or support
delivery of climate services (retooling needs may vary based on the
current mandate of the meteorological services ie. Forecasting vs.
non-forecasting territory)
•
Organizational mandates and structures
•
Legislative framework for operation
• Monitoring and Evaluation – how do we measure the changes
emerging from the climate service interventions?
• Communication modalities will require attention
4/1/2016
24
Institutional arrangements, partnerships
and processes required to operationalize
the GFCS at the regional level
•
Regional Level:
• Strengthening of the CIMH to sustainably deliver
on this mandate inclusive of investment in
further research
• Specific needs to be defined but couched within
the context of CIMH designation as a regional
climate centre
4/1/2016
25
Thank You!
Contact Information
Email: [email protected];
Website: www.cdema.org;
26