Transcript Managing coral reefs in the face of climate change: Is

Managing coral reefs in the
face of climate change:
Is there any point?
Dr Paul Marshall
Director – Climate Change
Great Barrier Reef Marine Park Authority
Healthy reef
Bleached reef
Damaged reef
Degraded reef
Is management futile?
2009
Reef condition
Pre-climate change
Worst-case scenario
1950
2000
2050
2100
Is management futile?
2009
Reef condition
Pre-climate change
RESILIENCE
Best-case scenario
Worst-case scenario
1950
2000
2050
2100
A framework for management action
1. Understand problem
Climate Change Vulnerability Assessment
2. Identify strategies for reducing risk
Resilience analysis for priority ecosystems/sectors
3. Prioritise adaptation activities
Climate Change Adaptation Plan
4. Build resilience
Implementation
Climate Change & the GBR:
A Vulnerability Assessment
Exposure
Sensitivity
Potential
impact
Adaptive
capacity
Vulnerability
Climate Change & the GBR:
A Vulnerability Assessment
Introduction
Vulnerability
of species and
species
groups
Vulnerability
of GBR
habitats
Enabling
management
The Great Barrier Reef (GBR)
Climate and climate change on the GBR
Oceanography and climate change
Resilience, climate change & the GBR
Marine microbes
Plankton
Macroalgae
Seagrasses
Mangroves & tidal wetlands
Reef-building corals
Benthic invertebrates
Fishes
Sharks & Rays
Seabirds
Marine reptiles
Marine mammals
Coral reefs
Pelagic systems
Coasts and estuaries
Islands and cays
Geomorphological features
Palaeoecology
Industries and communities
Vulnerability & management
implications
Prioritising management
Humans
Prioritising management
Exposure
Sensitivity
Potential
impact
Adaptive
capacity
Vulnerability
Resilience Analysis (corals)
Marshall &
Schuttenberg
2007
New science
Reducing nutrients increases bleaching threshold
Wooldridge and
Done, 2009
Adaptation Plan
Adapting management
1. Manage for process, not just state
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•
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Restore water quality
Protect key functional groups
Protect refugia/critical habitats
Restore resilience of important components
Photo © Georgette Douwma / naturepl.com.
Adapting management
2. Effectively prioritise effort & resources
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•
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Urgency
Importance
Feasibility
Exposure
Sensitivity
Potential
impact
Adaptive
capacity
Vulnerability
Cost
Values
Management
Priority
Adapting management
3. Manage for social-ecological resilience
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Resource-dependency
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Climate change as a common enemy
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Converting stakeholders to champions
Key messages
1. GHGs must be stabilised
2. Management has never been more
important
3. Management needs to adapt
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Resilience focus
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Triage
•
Partnerships
4. Climate change is an opportunity, too