Transcript Main Findings of IPCC - UW Program on Climate Change

Climate Change 101
Dr. LuAnne Thompson
Associate Professor, School of Oceanography
Board member of Program on Climate Change, UW
Outline
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The science of climate change: the IPCC
The impacts climate change: global and
regional
Solutions: from personal to global
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change 2007
Under the auspices of
the World Meteorological Organization and
the United Nations Environmental Program
Summary for Policy Makers for Fourth Assessment
Release February 7, 2007
www.ipcc.ch
Main Findings of IPCC
Warming of the
climate system
is unequivocalchanges seen in
global average
temperature,
melting of snow
and ice, rising
sea level.
IPCC 2007
Source: OSTP
 Clear
correlation
between CO2 and
temperature
 Current level of
CO2 is outside
bounds of natural
variability
 Rate of change
of CO2 is also
unprecedented
Source: OSTP
CO2 and temperature, 1000 AD to present
Source: IPCC 2001
Source: OSTP
Main Findings of IPCC
Observed vs. modeled temperature rise
since 1860
Most of the
warming in
globally
averaged
temperature is
very likely due
to the
observed
increase to
anthropogenic
green house
gases.
IPCC
Main Findings of IPCC
Between 1900 and 2000, the earth has warmed by 1F.
Global average temperature projected to increase 2-11.5°F by
2100.
Half of uncertainty is climate sensitivity; half is GHG input
(policy, tech)
“How far can it go? The last time the world was three
degrees warmer than today – which is what we expect
later this century – sea levels were 25m higher. So that
is what we can look forward to if we don't act soon…I
think sea-level rise is going to be the big issue soon,
more even than warming itself…
How long have we got? We have to stabilize emissions of carbon dioxide within a
decade, or temperatures will warm by more than one degree.
That will be warmer than it has been for half a million years, and many things
could become unstoppable.…We don't have much time left.”
Dr. James Hansen, Director, NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies.
– The Independent 2/ 17/2006
Projected Changes in Annual Temperatures for the 2050s
The projected change is compared to the present day with a ~1% increase per year in equivalent CO 2
Source: The Met Office. Hadley Center for Climate Prediction and Research
Physical signal: observed changes in ice and snow cover
South Cascade Glacier,
1928 and 2000
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Duration of ice cover on rivers and
lakes has decreased by 2.5 weeks
over the last century in mid- &
high latitude areas
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Arctic sea ice loss in area (10 -
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Decline in snow cover (10%) for N
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World-wide retreat in alpine glaciers
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Widespread changes in permafrost
15%) and thickness (40%)
over the last half century.
hemisphere since 1960
over last century
IPCC
Sea-Level Rise
Ocean Shores, WA
 Thermal expansion and glacier/icecap melting
 4 to 8 inches over the last century
 IPCC projects 7 to 23 inches this century
 Erodes beaches and wetlands, inundates lowlying areas
Effects of global warming on water cycle
Global warming
Speeds up global
water cycle
9/19 Washington Post:
“Warning in the Winds”
“Hurricanes are essentially heat
engines, forming over warm ocean
waters and gaining strength from
the latent heat …. This released heat
drives rapid updrafts that cause
more water to evaporate from the
ocean surface and form a selfreinforcing vortex of swirling clouds
generating wind speeds, as in
Hurricane Ivan's case, of up to 160
miles per hour.”
More extreme
weather events
PNW trends, expected impacts
Source for PNW impacts:
UW Climate Impacts Group
http://www.cses.washington.edu/cig/
Average Northwest warming, 2000-2100
Source: Mote, Salathé and Peacock 2005
Effect on modeled Snake River streamflow
140000
an earlier peak
120000
decreased spring/
summer flows
Flow (cfs)
100000
base
comp 2020
comp 2040
80000
increased winter
flows
60000
40000
20000
0
O
N
D
J
F
M
A
M
J
J
A
S
Source: Mote ca. 2005
For areas that accumulate snowpack, areas close to freezing in mid-winter are
most sensitive to warming
+4°F,
+4.5%
winter
precip
~2050s
days of operation per year
Effect on Snoqualmie Pass ski industry
24 cm snow
threshold
50 cm
80 cm
current
climate
2020’s
2040’s
(two different models) (two different models)
Source: Mote ca. 2005
CO2 Emissions and Concentrations:
The environment responds to concentrations; aggressive emission reduction needs to begin quickly
IPCC
Stabilization wedge options
capture CO 2 at synfuels
plant
capture CO 2 at H 2 plants
capture CO 2 at power
plants
displace coal with
nuclear
displace coal with wind
displace coal with PV
displace coal with NG
efficient coal power
efficient buildings
displace gasoline with
wind H 2
increase biofuels
production 50X
forestry
reduced car use
conservation tillage on all
cropland
efficient cars
PCC slide no. 062
adapted from: Pacala & Socolow 2004
GHG emissions induced by a U.S. household
medical
6%
other
3%
housing
6%
personal items
and services
6%
household
operations
35%
food
12%
transportation
32%
Source: Union of Concerned Scientists 1999
Why a Northwesterner needs to think differently
buildings
(commercial)
7%
buildings
(residential)
6%
buildings
9%
agriculture
5%
agriculture
7%
electric
generation
15%
electric
generation
34%
industry
25%
industry
19%
transportation
27%
U.S. GHGs
transportation
46%
Washington GHGs
Source: U.S. EPA 2005; Washington State 2004
Two venues for action
POLICY REFORM
PERSONAL GHG CUTS
• Drive less
- Carpool or use transit
- Walk or bicycle
- Combine errands
- Telecommute
• Drive a fuel-efficient car
• Recycle
• Reduce home energy use
- CFLs
- Energy Star appliances
- Heat room-by-room
- Minimize summer A/C
• Vote
• Financially support
concerned organizations
- Climate Solutions
- Northwest Energy
Coalition
• Volunteer for concerned
organizations
- Door-to-door education
- Legislative lobbying
• Purchase GHG offsets
Source: Hammerschlag ca. 2005
City of Seattle
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As of March 11,
2007, 418 US
cities in 50 states,
representing more
than 60 million
Americans
support Kyoto
after Mayor Greg
Nickels of Seattle
started a
nationwide effort
to get cities to
agree to the
protocol.
County, UW, Businesses
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Seattle Climate Partnership (REI, UW,
Starbucks, etc.). Voluntary pact among
Seattle Area Employers to take action to
reduce their own emissions.
Sims Global Warming initiative
Commitment to reduce King County
Emissions
Development of adaptation strategies
The UW has joined a national effort -- the
American College & University Presidents
Climate Commitment -- to reduce
greenhouse gas emissions and become
carbon-neutral.
State
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February 26, 2007: Five Western governors
agreed to cut their states' emissions
Will establish a regional carbon-trading system
allowing polluters to buy and sell greenhouse gas
pollution credits.
Solutions: UN Framework Convention on Climate Change
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Foundation of international efforts to combat
global warming
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Objective: “stabilize GHG concentrations in
the atmosphere at a level that would prevent
dangerous human interference with the
climate system”
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Kyoto protocol sets binding limits: Ratified
by over 100 nations; emission trading and
markets are evolving rapidly
Emission Reduction Profile
to achieve 450 PPM
Tony Blair and Great Britain
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Proposed bill, Britain will cut carbon emission by
60% cut by 2050, and introduce legally-binding
carbon "budgets"
Interim target of a 26% to 32% reduction in
carbon dioxide emissions by 2020.