Transcript National Academies of Science - Chester County Citizens for

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Help Educate the community on the severity
and serious consequences of climate
change.
Present ideas and solutions that businesses
and individuals can implement in order to
save money, conserve energy & improve the
overall health of our citizens and our planet
www.chescocooler.org
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What does it mean and what can I do about it?
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Review Climate Change Science
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Address How It Will Impact You
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Define What Can You Do
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 100,000 yrs of Ice, 20,000 yrs of Warmth
o Currently in a warm period (for the last 15,000 yrs)
 Climate ‘Drivers’
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Earth’s elliptical orbit; Natural ‘tilt’ and ‘wobble’
o Volcanoes, Asteroid impacts, Ocean circulation, airborne dust
 Balance is easily tipped
o Manmade Greenhouse Gases: CO2/CH4/N2O/CFC
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• Earth warming much faster than natural cycles
 Highest CO2 levels in >800,000 yrs
 10 hottest in last 15 yrs; 20 in last 25
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Global warming is unequivocal & man made
• Overwhelming scientific consensus
• All US scientific agencies & IPCC agree
• What’s the big deal?
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Burning fuels the last 100 yrs = Tremendous amounts of CO2
CO2 traps heat; Is an ‘accelerator’
9⁰ F decrease delivered an Ice Age
What will happen with a 3-8⁰F increase?
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January 1, 2009: 3,146 Global Earth Scientists
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“It seems that the debate on the authenticity of global
warming and the role played by human activity is
largely non-existent among those who understand
the nuances and scientific basis of long-term climate
processes.“
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Science Academies Urge Faster Response to Climate Change
June, 2009--The science academies of France, Germany, Italy, Japan, United
Kingdom, United States, Canada, Russia, plus Brazil, China, India, Mexico,
and South Africa, called on their leaders to "seize all opportunities" to
address global climate change that "is happening even faster than previously
estimated.”
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World's Science Academies Say Ocean Acidification Another
Reason to Cut Emissions
June, 2009--The Inter Academy Panel, a network of the world's science
academies, issued a statement warning that ocean acidification caused by
carbon dioxide emissions will have a profound impact on marine ecosystems
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Comprised of Scientists from Dept’s of:
Commerce, Defense, Energy, Interior, Agriculture, State, Transportation, Health
& Human Services
And…
NASA, National Science Foundation, Smithsonian Institution, Agency for
International Dev., EPA
Conclusions
Climate changes are real, have consequences, and need attention
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1980
Annual Sea Ice
Minimum
NASA
2007
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Annual Sea Ice
Minimum
Less light and energy reflected
Means Dark ocean water absorbs heat
NASA
#2: Shrinking Mountain Glaciers
 Every Glacier has rapid and sustained retreat
 Major losses in Himalayan’s
 Reduced drinking supplies
 Big impact on agriculture
This means less water for food for billions
…. in Western USA, South America, Africa and Asia
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#3: More Acidic Oceans from Dissolved CO2
This will kill coral & disrupt
the ocean’s food chain
&
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#1 Sea Level Rise (5-9 in last 100 yrs)
◦ Projections = 3 ft by 2090
 Warmer H2O expands
 New: Greenland & Antarctica both losing Ice mass !!
 Greenland & Antarctica = 215 feet!
◦ Even modest increases
 $ billions spent protecting cities (Or abandon)
 ~ 600 million people displaced
 Mass migrations likely; To USA?
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Bangladesh = 162 million people
50% flooded by 2090
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Maldives coral islands
= 400,000 people
 What
will people drink?
- salt water intrusion everywhere
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#2 Likely Crop Failures
 Higher/longer Temp = Impacts yields (Time above 86° F)
 Inconsistent and unpredictable rainfall
 Emerging agricultural diseases
 Ref: Nature Conservancy : Climatewizard – for each state
 Wolfram Schlenker at Columbia University & Michael Roberts at NC St.
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#3 Warming Permafrost & Peat Bogs:
Will Release Massive Methane & CO2
Tipping point?
Latest estimate of the amount of carbon in Permafrost is 1.7
trillion tons. More than in atmosphere now.
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Permafrost line now 90 miles north vs 1960.
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Dramatic increase in extreme hot days
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Increase in days over 90F & 100F…..
Vulnerable older populations at risk
Outdoor sports on 100° F plus days?
Tropical diseases migrate north (West Nile, Dengue fever)
Changes in fish, wildlife & plant life
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Ranges moving north; Numbers declining
Agricultural yields to decrease
Hardwood trees decline – black cherry, beech, sugar maple
Warm “winters” do not kill off insects
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Source: Union of Concerned
Scientists 2009
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Or what You can do as an individual
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Before We Begin, A Reality Check….
 Significant fossil fuel dependency
 Shifting will take time & commitment
 Shifting fossil fuels will raise costs
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Residential
fuels
Electricity
Ag
50% coal
Industry
Vehicles
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Biggest source of CO2
◦ PA produces 470,000 lbs/minute
◦ Largest source of mercury, acid rain; Huge toxic ash
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What shall we do?
◦ Replace with cleaner alternatives
◦ Support minimum renewable standards for utilities
◦ Capture with CCS – condense & pipeline to Underground
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Consider 2 Powerful Concepts
1- Conservation (avoiding energy use when practical)
2- Efficiency (stretching your energy $’s)
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Conserve (avoiding energy use when practical)
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Upgrade to much better MPG cars
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Turn down thermostat in winter/up in summer
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Turn off unused lights & power strips
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Turn down H20 heater to 120°
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Become More Efficient (stretching energy $’s)
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Conduct an energy audit & act
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Insulate & weatherize
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Upgrade Heat/ Cooling: geothermal; Hi eff gas;
Solar PV & Thermal
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Buy Energy Star/ Switch to CFL or LED’s
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Things to Consider…
 Is
there is an Energy Committee?
 If yes, join! If not, promote idea!
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Conduct audit, set company goals & implement
 DOE offers free audits
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Township
County
State
Federal
Communicate Your Position with Elected Officials
Support all technologies that greatly Reduce or
Eliminate CO2 Emissions: (Nat gas; Wind;
Solar; Nuclear; Hi Eff buildings; Hybrid & electric
vehicles; Fuel cells; Very efficient appliances;
LED / CFL lights)
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Stop Bleeding $300 Billion / yr on Oil
Sen. Lindsey Graham (R-SC) “We cannot sacrifice another job to
competitors overseas. China and India are among the many countries
investing heavily in clean-energy technologies that will produce millions of
jobs..
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“Six months ago my biggest worry was that an emissions deal would make
American business less competitive compared to China; Now my concern
is that every day that we delay trying to find a price for carbon is a day
that China uses to dominate the green economy.”
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"Power companies need and want to be part of America's clean
energy transition,"
◦ -David Crane, president and CEO of NRG Energy Inc., which owns and operates more
than 24,000 megawatts of electricity generation capacity in the U.S.
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"But we need the certainty of clear rules and strong policies that will help
us invest in that transition while also addressing climate change and
keeping power affordable."
"The same inventive solutions that will help the environment will
also help move the airline industry forward,"
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- David Cush, president and CEO of Virgin America, a U.S. commercial passenger airline.
"The United States can't afford to fall behind in the global race to
lead the new energy economy,"
◦ - Jonathan Wolfson, CEO of Solazyme, a leading renewable oil and bioproducts
company.
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“We are virtually certain that climate change is
occurring, and occurring because of man’s
activities.”
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“We’re virtually certain the probability distribution
curve is all bad. There are no good things that’ll
come of this”
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J. Wayne Leonard, CEO of Entergy Corporation
◦ (utility based in New Orleans, Louisiana)
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Dell, DuPont, FPL, Google, HP, Johnson & Johnson, Levi Strauss,
PG&E , Duke Energy, Xanterra sent the US Senate a letter urging them
to pass a bill that will cut GHG emissions - “jumpstart a clean energy
economy”
Dow Chemical Co., Entergy Corp., Nike Inc. and more than 140 other
companies support a comprehensive climate and energy senate bill
“A rapidly changing climate is reshaping the American landscape and
poses a long-term threat to our nation’s economy and to our
children’s future.”
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A range of cost estimates have all concluded that the
costs of tackling climate change range from 1-3% of
GDP & would provide cost savings and create
jobs….
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The wars in Iraq and Afghanistan have cost so far:
$950 B. about 5% of GDP
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Americans spend 5.6% of after tax income on
entertainment
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Wal-Mart’s new sustainability goal: to eliminate 20
million metric tons of greenhouse gases from the
supply chain by 2015.
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This amount, roughly equivalent to the company’s total
corporate emissions last year,
◦ “the equivalent of taking more than 3.8 million cars off the road for a
year.”
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CEO of Lutex:
Hong Kong-based soap and cosmetics maker:
“Wal-Mart Stores is urging him to pay attention to
Environmental details. Energy-saving details. Not just
everyday low prices, but low greenhouse gas emissions”.
“We heard that in the future, to become a Wal-Mart supplier,
you have to be an environmentally friendly company,” Fung
said. “So we switched some of our products and the way we
produced them.”
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Overwhelming evidence & Consensus
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Serious consequences
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Our children/grandchildren are at risk
It Starts with You
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U.S. Agency for International
Development
United States Department of Agriculture
National Oceanic & Atmospheric
Administration
National Institute of Standards and
Technology
United States Department of Defense
United States Department of Energy
National Institutes of Health
United States Department of State
United States Department of
Transportation
U.S. Geological Survey
U.S. Environmental Protection Agency
University Corporation for Atmospheric
Research
National Center for Atmospheric
Research
National Aeronautics & Space
Administration
National Science Foundation
Smithsonian Institution
International Arctic Science Committee
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Arctic Council
Australian Academy of Sciences
Royal Flemish Academy of Belgium for
Sciences and the Arts
Academia Brasileira de Ciéncias
Royal Society of Canada
Caribbean Academy of Sciences
Chinese Academy of Sciences
Académie des Sciences, France
Deutsche Akademie der Naturforscher
Leopoldina of Germany
Indonesian Academy of Sciences
Royal Irish Academy
Accademia nazionale delle scienze of Italy
Indian National Science Academy
Science Council of Japan
Kenya National Academy of Sciences
Academy of Sciences Malaysia
Academia Mexicana de Ciencias
Nigerian Academy of Sciences
Royal Society of New Zealand
Polish Academy of Sciences
Russian Academy of Sciences
l’Académie des Sciences et Techniques du
Sénégal
Academy of Science of South Africa
Sudan Academy of Sciences
Swedish Royal Academy of Sciences
Tanzania Academy of Sciences
Turkish Academy of Sciences
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The Royal Society of the United
Kingdom
National Academy of Sciences, United
States
Zambia Academy of Sciences
Zimbabwe Academy of Science
American Academy of Pediatrics
American Association for the
Advancement of Science
American Association of Wildlife
Veterinarians
American Astronomical Society
American Chemical Society
American College of Preventive
Medicine
American Geophysical Union
American Institute of Physics
American Medical Association
American Meteorological Society
American Physical Society
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American Public Health Association
American Quaternary Association
American Institute of Biological Sciences
American Society of Agronomy
American Society of Plant Biologists
American Statistical Association
Association of Ecosystem Research
Centers
American Society for Microbiology
Botanical Society of America
Crop Science Society of America
Ecological Society of America
Federation of American Scientists
Geological Society of America
National Association of Geoscience
Teachers
Natural Science Collections Alliance
Organization of Biological Field Stations
Society of American Foresters
Society for Industrial and Applied
Mathematics
Society of Systematic Biologists
Soil Science Society of America
Australian Coral Reef Society
Australian Medical Association
Australian Meteorological and
Oceanographic Society
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Engineers Australia
Federation of Australian Scientific
and Technological Societies
Geological Society of Australia
British Antarctic Survey
Institute of Biology, UK
Royal Meteorological Society, UK
Canadian Foundation for Climate
and Atmospheric Sciences
Canadian Meteorological and
Oceanographic Society
European Federation of Geologists
European Geosciences Union
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European Physical Society
European Science Foundation
International Association for Great
Lakes Research
International Union for Quaternary
Research
International Union of Geodesy and
Geophysics
Intergovernmental Panel on
Climate Change
World Federation of Public Health
Associations
World Health Organization
World Meteorological Organization
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Questions?
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According to recent estimates from the Integrated Global Systems Model at the
Massachusetts Institute of Technology, the median forecast is for a climb of 9 degrees
Fahrenheit by century’s end, in the absence of effective countermeasures.
According to the same M.I.T. model, there is a 10 percent chance that the average
global temperature will rise more than 12.4 degrees by 2100, Warming on that scale
would be truly catastrophic.
“Most people would pay a substantial share of their wealth —
much more, certainly, than the modest cost of a carbon tax —
to avoid having someone pull the trigger on a gun pointed at
their Kid’s head with one bullet and nine empty chambers. Yet
that’s the kind of risk that some people think we should take”.
Robert H. Frank is an economist at the Johnson Graduate School of Management at Cornell University
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 United States Environmental Protection Agency http://www.epa.gov/climatechange/
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National Academies of Science http://www.nationalacademies.org/
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PEW Center www.pewclimate.org/global-warming-basics
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Real climate. Can search by topics and “skeptics” arguments.
www.realclimate.org
 United States Department of Energy
http://www.energy.gov/
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Intergovernmental Panel on climate change; www.ipcc.ch
“Hot, Flat & Crowded”- Thomas Friedman
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http://www.treehugger.com/files/2009/10/wheres-political-engagementclimate-change-reductions-soy-corn-yields.php
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A new analysis of U.S. climate projections from The Nature Conservancy finds that
temperatures in the worst-hit states could be up to 10 degrees Fahrenheit
hotter than present-day levels by the year 2100.
http://www.climatewizard.org/
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“The mass changes of both Greenland and Antarctica ice sheets (the biggest in the
world) during the last 7 yrs have all been negative. The rates of lose have
accelerated. We should be concerned” – Geophysicist I. Velicogna of NASA’s Jet
Propulsion Lab – in press
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Represent
35% of GHG emissions
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Quickly move to hybrids;
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Then electric vehicles(as move away from coal)
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Airplanes & Trucks use bio fuels from microbes
or Natural gas for large trucks
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