Transcript The Evidence

CLIMATE CHANGE SERIES
The Evidence
Eric Jackson
[email protected]
The Evidence
The Basics
The Facts
The Observations
The Credibility Factor
Last Thoughts
The Basics
The “Climate System” consists of
5 elements, all interconnected
Atmosphere--all systems within Earth’s gravity
above the surface of the planet
Hydrosphere--oceans, lakes, rivers
Biosphere--all things living on Earth
Cryosphere--ice
Geosphere--soil and rock
The Climate
In any given year, tens of billions of tons of carbon
move between the atmosphere, hydrosphere, and
geosphere. Human activities add about 5.5 billion tons
per year of carbon dioxide to the atmosphere.
Anthropogenic (man-made) greenhouse gases
✓Carbon Dioxide = CO
:
fossil fuels, deforestation, land use changes
✓Methane = CH
2
:
livestock, rice, landfills, natural gas
4
✓Nitrous Oxide = NO
:
commercial agriculture, land use changes
2
✓Ozone = O
:
at surface, interacts to form GHGs
3
✓Halocarbons = CFC, HFC, etc., :
refrigerants, fire retardents
US Anthropogenic GHG Emission Sources
Important GHG and Sources
Natural greenhouse gases
Water Vapor
36-70%
30-64%
✓Carbon Dioxide = CO
✓Methane = CH
✓Nitrous Oxide = NO
✓Ozone = O
4
2
3
2
Methane Cycle
What is “the greenhouse effect”?
The Facts
Monthly Measurements at Manau Loa
Fossil Fuels Arrive
Antarctic Vostok ice core; 2.2 miles deep, 420,000
years of temperature and greenhouse gas data
Atmospheric CO2 Projections
Text
The Observations
Baffin Island
5th Largest
island in the
world
Located just
west of
Greenland
Ice cap has shrunk 50% over last 50 years
and will be gone by 2050University of Colorado Boulder
Greenland
✓ 25% size of USA
✓ 80% covered by ice sheet
✓ 5% of all world ice, if melted = 21
feet global sea level rise
Summer ice melt in 2007 exceeded previous record of
2005 by 10%.
Glacier Park
The Montana park has 26 named glaciers today, down from 150
in 1850. Those that remain are typically mere remnants of their
former frozen selves
Argentina
Average Arctic Sea ice extent in September 2007 was
the lowest on record, shattering the previous record of
2005 by 23%. Arctic will likely be ice-free in summer by
2030.
Roughly twice as many hurricanes are now reported in
the Atlantic compared to a century ago. The increase
is associated with rises in sea-surface temperature.
National Center for Atmospheric Research
In both the North Atlantic and North Pacific oceans, the
duration of tropical cyclones as well as their strongest
wind speeds have both increased by about 50% over
the past 50 years. Massachusetts Institute of Technology
The number of Category 4 and 5 hurricanes worldwide
nearly doubled from the early 1970s to the early
2000s. Georgia Institute of Technology and NCAR
Why do we believe the climate is changing?
The globe is warming. Averaged over all land and
ocean surfaces, temperatures today are about 0.75ºC
warmer than at the beginning of the 20th Century.
Rates of temperature rise are greater in recent
decades. University Corporation for Atmospheric Research
Climate Change i.e. Global Warming does not mean
that equal and even changes will be observed
everywhere
rising sea level
increase drought
melting polar regions increase rain
glacial retreat
altered agriculture
species ranges
storm intensity/frequency
disease ranges
The Credibility Factor
Truth
Expertise
Most Reliable
Professional organizations
Statements that
contradict normal bias
Peer-reviewed science
“Science”
“Nature”
Proceedings from
Nat Acad Science
Universities
Petitions
Think tanks
Advocacy groups
Individual professional
Individual layperson
Least Reliable
Bias
Support for my beliefs
U.S. scientists and economists call for swift and deep
cuts in greenhouse gas emissions....
✓More than 1,700 scientists and economists
✓6 Nobel Prize winners
✓30 members of National Academy of Sciences
✓10 members of National Academy of Engineering
✓10 recipients of MacArthur Fellowship
✓over 100 members of Intergovernmental Panel on
CLimate Change (IPCC co-winner of 2007 Nobel
Peace Prize)
American Association for the Advancement
of Science
>144,000 members
150+ years old
“The scientific evidence is clear: global climate change
caused by human activities is occurring now, and it is a
growing threat to society. Accumulating data from
across the globe reveal a wide array of effects: rapidly
melting glaciers, destabilization of major ice sheets,
increases in extreme weather, rising sea level, shift in
species ranges, and more.”
Approved by AAAS Board December 9, 2006
American Association for the Advancement
of Science
“The pace of change and the evidence of harm have
increased markedly over the last five years. The time
to control greenhouse gas emissions is now.”
Approved by AAAS Board December 9, 2006
American Association for the Advancement
of Science
“ Delaying action to address climate change will
increase the environmental and social consequences
as well as the costs. The longer we wait to tackle
climate change, the harder and more expensive the
task will be.”
Approved by AAAS Board December 9, 2006
National Academy of Sciences
>2,100 members
>200 Nobel Prizes
146 years old
“The scientific understanding of climate change is now
sufficiently clear to justify nations taking prompt
action.”
Joint Science Academies’ Statement June, 2005
National Academy of Sciences
“We call on world leaders to:
✓Acknowledge that the threat of climate change is
clear and increasing, and
✓Recognize that delayed action will increase the risk
of adverse environmental effects and will likely incur a
greater cost”
Joint Science Academies’ Statement June, 2005
Regarding climate change, what we now have is the
peer-reviewed equivalent of the American Medical
Association declaring that smoking is bad for you.
At the time, some doctors disagreed....
And now, we also have corporations presenting
“contradictory” positions
US Climate Action Partnership
Shell
BP
Conoco Phillips
Ford
GM
Chrysler
GE
Dupont
PGE
Alcoa
Caterpillar
Deere & Co
Duke Energy
NRG Energy, Inc
Siemens
Xerox
Dow Chemical
US Climate Action Partnership
A group of businesses and leading environmental
organizations that have come together to call on the
federal government to quickly enact strong national
legislation to require significant reductions of
greenhouse gas emissions
Dateline January 15, 2009
Washington, D.C.
This morning the US Climate Action Partnership
released its Blueprint for Legislative Action.
“The United States faces an urgent need to
reinvigorate our nation’s economy, enhance energy
security and take meaningful action to slow, stop and
reverse GHG emissions to address climate change.”
Dateline January 15, 2009
Washington, D.C.
“USCAP agrees that the science is sufficiently clear to
justify prompt action to protect our environment. Each
year of delayed action to control emissions increases
the risk of unavoidable consequences that could
necessitate even steeper reductions in the future, with
potentially greater economic cost and social
disruption.”
Last Thoughts
“No one will be immune, but climate change will have a
disproportionate effect on the lives of people living in
poverty in developing countries. Between 1990 and
1998, 94 per cent of the world’s 568 major natural
disasters, and more than 97 per cent of all natural
disaster-related deaths, were in developing countries.”
Oxfam Policy Paper on Climate Change
Last Thoughts
“Now is the time for followers of Christ to help solve
the global warming crisis. There is overwhelming
evidence that human activity is a major cause, and we
know that the impacts of climate change would be
hardest on the poor and vulnerable, and on future
generations.”
Evangelical Climate Initiative
Next in the Climate Change Series....
The Arguments
January 25 at 9 and 10:30 AM
January 29 at 7 PM
Eric Jackson
[email protected]