Transcript Misconceptions PowerPoint KB

Could the ‘Climate Sceptics’ be Right?
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Latest revision: 28 Mar 2010
Australian Institute of Physics (Vic Branch) Education Committee
Could the ‘Climate Sceptics’ be Right?
Keith Burrows
Australian Institute of Physics (Vic Branch) Education Committee
Common Misconceptions
by Climate Change Deniers
 This is a preview version of two different presentations we are in
the process of preparing
 1. A ‘Quick reference’ set of points for use in another presentation
when denier points come up. Hyperlinks will take you to a set of
quick answers to common points.
 2. A fuller discussion of the common misconceptions to be used as
a stand alone presentation or in conjunction with others.
 PLEASE SEE WEBSITE FOR UPDATED VERSION OF THIS PPT
 www.vicphysics.org ‘Teachers’ ‘Climate change’
 28 March 2010 version
Australian Institute of Physics (Vic Branch) Education Committee
‘Climate sceptics’ and ‘climate deniers’
Climate sceptics
 Scepticism is an important part of science. Scientists
always try to question and test their theories.
 Scientific sceptics discuss their questions with other
scientists through the peer reviewed journals.
Climate deniers
 Deniers take the supposed ‘debate’ to the public –
inappropriately. They avoid discussions with the
scientific community.
 Deniers express no doubt about their position – or they
would have to take action in case they are wrong.
Australian Institute of Physics (Vic Branch) Education Committee
Some Deniers
Some Deniers
Common Misconceptions (Deceptions?)
• Group 1 – It’s not really warming
GO
Is the world warming or cooling? What about the past?
Does it matter?
GO
• Group 2 – Greenhouse gases
Are we really adding to the greenhouse effect?
GO
• Group 3 – The science
Do we really know what’s going on?
• Group 4 – Distractions
GO
Irrelevancies that only confuse the issue.
Australian Institute of Physics (Vic Branch) Education Committee
Common Misconceptions
Group 1 – It’s not really warming
1. It is getting cooler - or at least the warming has stopped.
2. The Arctic sea ice is recovering back to normal
3. Antarctica is not warming and sea ice there has
increased.
4. The Middle Ages were warmer – it’s all sunspots.
5. The climate is always changing.
6. A bit of warming will be good.
7. It’s not really getting warmer, it’s the heat island effect
8. Sea levels are not rising, or have stopped rising.
Australian Institute of Physics (Vic Branch) Education Committee
Common Misconceptions
Group 2 - Greenhouse gases
1. The extra CO2 is not from fossil fuels.
2. CO2 makes up a very small proportion of the
atmosphere.
3. Water vapour is a more important greenhouse gas
than carbon dioxide.
4. More CO2 will help plants grow better
5. The CO2 in the atmosphere is already saturated
Australian Institute of Physics (Vic Branch) Education Committee
Common Misconceptions
Group 3 - The science
1. The warming is caused by natural cycles - Earth orbit, the Sun,
cosmic rays, etc
2. Climate models are just computer models which are not
reliable.
3. Correlation between temperature and CO2 levels does not prove
causation – anyway, CO2 is going up & temperatures falling!
4. Global warming just an unproven theory. ‘Science not settled’
5. Many scientists disagree with the IPCC conclusions and
anyway the IPCC is a political body.
6. Ice core data shows that CO2 rises after the temperature.
7. CO2 absorption is saturated.
Australian Institute of Physics (Vic Branch) Education Committee
Common Misconceptions
Group 4 - Distractions
1. Past warming has been good for life.
2. Technology will eventually solve the problem through
geoengineering or CO2 pull down.
3. Tackling climate change is economically dangerous.
4. The increased CO2 from the developing world will exceed any
reduction the developed world can do.
5. Australia’s total emissions are much less than China’s
6. People have been predicting global catastrophes forever and
none ever come true.
7. In the 1970's they said we were approaching an ice age.
8. Climate change has been taken up by left wing groups to
attack capitalism.
9. The ‘hacked’ emails prove climate scientists cooked the data.
Australian Institute of Physics (Vic Branch) Education Committee
1-1 “It is getting cooler” “the warming has stopped”
 The earth’s climate is influenced by many
factors. A time span of several decades is
needed to observe any trend.
 These claims rely on ‘cherry picking’ a
particularly hot year – 1998 the hottest year on
record.
 But choose 1996 or 1997 – Then EVERY year
since then has been hotter!
 The eleven hottest years ever recorded were all
in the last 14 years (HADCrut data).
Australian Institute of Physics (Vic Branch) Education Committee
1-1 “It is getting cooler” “the warming has stopped”
 Top 10 11 temperatures on
record (NASA-GISS data)
 9 of them this century
 None earlier than 1997
 Top 11 all in the last 12
years (which one missed?)
 8 out of 9 years this century
in the top ten (2000 was 15th)
 But this is cherry picking!
 PS: 2009 looks like being at
least in the top 5!
Australian Institute of Physics (Vic Branch) Education Committee
1-1 “It is getting cooler” “the warming has stopped”
•
Just need to look at the data!
*
Australian Institute of Physics (Vic Branch) Education Committee
*2009 estimated
1-1 “It is getting cooler” “the warming has stopped”
•
Just need to look at the data!
Australian Institute of Physics (Vic Branch) Education Committee
1-1 “It is getting cooler” “the warming has stopped”
•
(This is the one the deniers like!)
Australian Institute of Physics (Vic Branch) Education Committee
1-1 “It is getting cooler” “the warming has stopped”
•
This is the one Monckton likes! (See later)
Australian Institute of Physics (Vic Branch) Education Committee
This is what the deniers do –
Australian Institute of Physics (Vic Branch) Education Committee
1-1 “It is getting cooler” “the warming has stopped”
 Annual temperatures are influenced by many factors
including solar radiation, ENSO, local effects,
Volcanic activity etc.
 The annual global warming trend is only about a tenth
of the yearly variation...
Australian Institute of Physics (Vic Branch) Education Committee
40 years
Australian Institute of Physics (Vic Branch) Education Committee
Typical yearly
variation
compared to
yearly
warming trend
Australian Institute of Physics (Vic Branch) Education Committee
CLIMATE
CHANGE
WEATHER
Which is why
we notice the
weather more
than climate
change!
Australian Institute of Physics (Vic Branch) Education Committee
1-1 “It is getting cooler” “the warming has stopped”
 For this reason we should look at decade trends or
long term averages
CSIRO
graph
11 year
averages
Australian Institute of Physics (Vic Branch) Education Committee
1-1 “It is getting cooler” “the warming has stopped”
 For this reason we should look at decade trends or
long term averages
Australian Institute of Physics (Vic Branch) Education Committee
 Which is more likely?
OR
Australian Institute of Physics (Vic Branch) Education Committee
1-1 “It is getting cooler” “the warming has stopped”
“Lord Monckton of Brenchley”
Australian Institute of Physics (Vic Branch) Education Committee
1-1 “It is getting cooler” “the warming has stopped”
“Lord Monckton of Brenchley”
Australian Institute of Physics (Vic Branch) Education Committee
1-1 “It is getting cooler” “the warming has stopped”
Australian Institute of Physics (Vic Branch) Education Committee
1-1 “It is getting cooler” “the warming has stopped”
 ‘Other factors’
include the El Niño –
La Niña cycle
(ENSO)
 1998 was an
exceptionally strong
El Niño.
 2000 and 2008 were
La Niña’s
 We are heading
upward again now .
Australian Institute of Physics (Vic Branch) Education Committee
1-1 “It is getting cooler” “the warming has stopped”



‘Other factors’ also include the Sun – red line & curve
We should expect some cooling (green) to 2008 as both ENSO
(blue curve) and Sun (red) are in a low phase.
Problem will be when they go higher again in the next few years!
Australian Institute of Physics (Vic Branch) Education Committee
1-1 “It is getting cooler” “the warming has stopped”

A better indicator of ‘total Earth heat’ is the Ocean Heat
Content Anomaly. Most warming is accumulated in the oceans
and ice (62%):
Global energy accumulation
and net heat emission
Nordell and Gervet
Australian Institute of Physics (Vic Branch) Education Committee
1-1 “It is getting cooler” “the warming has stopped”

A better indicator of ‘total Earth heat’ is the Ocean Heat
Content Anomaly. Here is one estimate:
Australian Institute of Physics (Vic Branch) Education Committee
1-1 “It is getting cooler” “the warming has stopped”

And another from the CSIRO:


Ocean heat content is going up relentlessly!
and another showing several different studies....
Australian Institute of Physics (Vic Branch) Education Committee
1-1 “It is getting cooler” “the warming has stopped”
Here is a slide from Ashby – Note only 4 years (and a
questionable source)
Australian Institute of Physics (Vic Branch) Education Committee
1-1 “It is getting cooler” “the warming has stopped”


Here is another four year graph of ocean heat content:
We could imagine it’s dropping
Australian Institute of Physics (Vic Branch) Education Committee
1-1 “It is getting cooler” “the warming has stopped”
Another 4 year
‘cherry pick’
 But this is actually a small section of a larger graph!
Actual trend
•
•
A different approach is to measure the total energy coming in
from the Sun and the total being radiated out to space.
If they are equal the Earth’s temperature will remain constant,
but if not ...
Australian Institute of Physics (Vic Branch) Education Committee
1-1 “It is getting cooler” “the warming has stopped”
•
By measuring reflected and emitted radiation, and comparing it
to incoming solar radiation “scientists have concluded that
more energy is being absorbed from the Sun than is emitted
back to space, throwing the Earth's energy "out of balance"
and warming the planet.” *
* National Aeronautics
and Space Administration
(NASA) (Washington,
D.C.), The Earth Institute
at Columbia University
(New York), and
Lawrence Berkeley
National Laboratory
(California)
Australian Institute of Physics (Vic Branch) Education Committee
1-1 “It is getting cooler” “the warming has stopped”
Footnote:

“Some climate scientists are predicting that surface
temperatures will remain static or even fall slightly over the
next few years, before warming resumes. Their predictions are
based largely on the idea that changes in long-term fluctuation
in ocean surface temperatures known as the Atlantic
Multidecadal Oscillation and the Pacific Decadal Oscillation
will bring cooler sea surface temperatures.”
Michael Le Page New Scientist 15 August 2008

Let’s hope they are right – it may give us a little more time to
get our act together!

The deniers have picked up this item – but forget the “before
warming resumes” bit
Australian Institute of Physics (Vic Branch) Education Committee
1-1 “It is getting cooler” “the warming has stopped”
Stop Press
A recent paper in AAAS Science Magazine showed
that changes in the amount of water vapour in the
lower stratosphere could have amplified warming in
the 1990’s and reduced it in the 2000’s
Some deniers heard the bit about water vapour and not
the rest and have claimed that it’s water vapour not
CO2 that is causing the warming.
Australian Institute of Physics (Vic Branch) Education Committee
1-1 “It is getting cooler” “the warming has stopped”
Stop Press
“This doesn’t alter the fundamental conclusion that the
world has warmed and that most of that warming has
to do with greenhouse gas emissions caused by man”
Susan Solomon, climate scientist at NOAA and author
of the paper.
Australian Institute of Physics (Vic Branch) Education Committee
1-2 “The Arctic Sea Ice is recovering”
Australian Institute of Physics (Vic Branch) Education Committee
1-2 “The Arctic Sea Ice is recovering”
This is a “recovery”?
1-3 “Antarctica is not warming…sea ice has increased”
Australian Institute of Physics (Vic Branch) Education Committee
1-3 “Antarctica is not warming…sea ice has increased”
This little piece of
Antarctica has not warmed
Australian Institute of Physics (Vic Branch) Education Committee
1-3 “Antarctica is not warming…sea ice has increased”
1-3 “Antarctica is not warming…sea ice has increased”
 Antarctic sea ice patterns changing:
 decreasing in some areas
 increasing in others.
 Antarctic climate influenced by many factors:
 Ozone hole – strengthens ‘polar vortex’ winds
 "We see a very mixed pattern of both melting
and ice growth in the Antarctic," said Thorsten
Markus, head of NASA Goddard's Cryospheric
Sciences Branch. "Changes in the cyclonic
pattern due to the ozone hole are one of the best
explanations we have."
Australian Institute of Physics (Vic Branch) Education Committee
1-3 “Antarctica is not warming…sea ice has increased”
 “The key is that warming temperatures can lead
to more stratified ocean layers”
 Jinlun Zhang, oceanographer, University of Washington
 Warming
more evaporation
more snow/rain
fresh water sits on top of salt water
less mixing of warm water currents
colder sea surface temperature
more sea ice
Australian Institute of Physics (Vic Branch) Education Committee
1-3 “Antarctica is not warming…sea ice has increased”
 Flooded Sea Ice Turns Snow to Ice
 Snow accumulates on sea ice
ice sinks lower
waves wet surface
water freezes
increase in sea ice
 See What’s Holding Antarctic Sea Ice Back From
Melting? physorg.com September 2nd, 2009 Adam
Voiland (NASA)
Australian Institute of Physics (Vic Branch) Education Committee
1-3 “Antarctica is not warming…sea ice has increased”
 The climate is complex!
 We understand a lot – but not all.
 One small ‘paradox’ does not discount all the
evidence of global warming
1-3 “Antarctica is not warming…sea ice has increased”
Satellites
Confirm HalfCentury of West
Antarctic
Warming
1957 - 2007
NASA - GISS
Australian Institute of Physics (Vic Branch) Education Committee
1-3 “Antarctica is not warming…sea ice has increased”
Larsen Ice
shelf
31 Jan 2002
7 March 2002
Australian Institute of Physics (Vic Branch) Education Committee
1-4 “The Middle Ages were warmer”
•
•
•
•
Any evidence is anecdotal, and restricted to
specific regions.
Even if they were a little warmer that is
irrelevant as the reasons for the current warmth
are quite different.
The rate at which the temperature is currently
rising is much greater than has been seen in any
historical time.
The temperatures we are heading for are much
hotter than any experienced in history.
Australian Institute of Physics (Vic Branch) Education Committee
1-4 “The Middle Ages were warmer”
 Typical denier 1990 graph
1960’s!
From “The Great Global Warming Swindle” (2006)
also used by Plimer in Heaven+Earth
Australian Institute of Physics (Vic Branch) Education Committee
1-4 “The Middle Ages were warmer”
 The IPCC 1990 graph (red) with later versions
Australian Institute of Physics (Vic Branch) Education Committee
1-4 “The Middle Ages were warmer”
Medieval warm period may have been about the same as recent averages
The Rate of increase certainly was not.
Where we are heading is very much higher.
2,000
years
Different colours
are different
determinations
Black line is
thermometer
records
Australian Institute of Physics (Vic Branch) Education Committee
1-4 “The Middle Ages were warmer”
20,000
years
Medieval warm
Period of human history
Australian Institute of Physics (Vic Branch) Education Committee
1-4 “The Middle Ages were warmer”
 Medieval warm period was probably due to
higher solar activity.
LIA
MWP
Australian Institute of Physics (Vic Branch) Education Committee
1-4 “The Middle Ages were warmer”
 Modern warm period is not due to solar activity.
Australian Institute of Physics (Vic Branch) Education Committee
1-4 “The Middle Ages were warmer”
 This decade has NOT cooled as could be expected.
Australian Institute of Physics (Vic Branch) Education Committee
1-5 “The climate is always changing.”
 Yes! On the geological scale it swings between
‘hothouse Earth’ and ‘snowball Earth’ ± >5°C
 On the historical scale the changes have been
very minor – Medieval warm period, Little ice
age for example: less than ± 1°C
(actually only about ±½°C)
 Past changes have caused ‘mass extinctions’
 We don’t want to be the cause of the next one!
Australian Institute of Physics (Vic Branch) Education Committee
1-5 “The climate is always changing.”
In the last 500 million years the climate has swung between
‘Hothouse Earth’ and ‘Snowball Earth’
Hothouse Earth
Snowball Earth
Australian Institute of Physics (Vic Branch) Education Committee
1-5 “The climate is always changing.”
Australian Institute of Physics (Vic Branch) Education Committee
1-5 “The climate is always changing.”
In the last 500 million years the climate has swung between
‘Hothouse Earth’ and ‘Snowball Earth’
Hothouse Earth
Australian Institute of Physics (Vic Branch) Education Committee
1-5 “The climate is always changing.”
In the last 500 million years the climate has swung between
‘Hothouse Earth’ and ‘Snowball Earth’
Snowball Earth
Australian Institute of Physics (Vic Branch) Education Committee
1-5 “The climate is always changing.”
 So have sea levels!
Australian Institute of Physics (Vic Branch) Education Committee
1-5 “The climate is always changing.”
Australian Institute of Physics (Vic Branch) Education Committee
1-5 “The climate is always changing.”
Ancient coastal terraces form when sea levels were higher
Australian Institute of Physics (Vic Branch) Education Committee
1-5 “The climate is always changing.”
In the last 1 million years the climate has swung between Ice
Ages (Snowball Earth) and mild ‘Interglacials’ as we have
now.
Interglacials
Snowball Earth
Australian Institute of Physics (Vic Branch) Education Committee
1-5 “The climate is always changing.”
But for the last 10 thousand or so years the climate has
been very kind to humans! Variation only ±1°C max
Interglacial
Period of human history
Australian Institute of Physics (Vic Branch) Education Committee
1-5 “The climate is always changing.”
About 1000 yr ago: ‘Medieval Warm Period’ ~ same as 1960s.
About 400 years ago: ‘Little Ice Age’ ~ about ½°C cooler.
MWP
LIA
Australian Institute of Physics (Vic Branch) Education Committee
1-5 “The climate is always changing.”
We do not want to go there!
Hothouse Earth
MWP
LIA
Australian Institute of Physics (Vic Branch) Education Committee
1-5 “The climate is always changing.”
 Even temperatures in the last interglacial would
be a problem – a little warmer than last century.
SST =
Sea Surface
Temperature
Australian Institute of Physics (Vic Branch) Education Committee
July 2009
“Paul Blanchon's
team at the National
University of Mexico
in Cancun has been
studying 121,000year-old coral reefs
in the Yucatan
Peninsula, formed
during the last interglacial period when sea level peaked at around
6 metres higher than today. His findings suggest that at one point
the sea rose 3 metres within 50 to 100 years.”
Australian Institute of Physics (Vic Branch) Education Committee
1-6 “A bit of warming will by good”
 Based on idea that the Medieval Warm Period
was good for plant life.
 This is true, but the warming we are looking at
will be far more than that!
Australian Institute of Physics (Vic Branch) Education Committee
1-6 “A bit of warming will by good”
±½°C
1-6 “A bit of warming will by good”
Mediaeval Warm Period
Little Ice Age
1-6 “A bit of warming will by good”
Past Inter-glacials
1°C – 2°C warmer
Sea ~ 5 – 10 m higher
Stern Review
1-6 “A bit of warming will by good”
Miocene:
3°C – 6°C warmer
Sea ~ 20 – 40 m higher
Stern Review
1-6 “A bit of warming will by good”
Eocene:
5°C – 8°C warmer
Sea ~ 80 – 100 m higher
Stern Review
1-6 “A bit of warming will by good”
Stern Review
1-6 “A bit of warming will by good”
 Remember:
 Human civilization has
only ever experienced
temperatures around plus
or minus ½°C from the
current temperature.
Australian Institute of Physics (Vic Branch) Education Committee
1-7 “It’s not getting warmer – it’s heat islands”
 Some claim that the temperatures have gone up
only due to more buildings around weather
stations – cities become ‘heat islands’.
 This effect has been well known to climate
scientists and they have gone to great lengths to
account for it.
 Atmospheric warming is easy to see, but actually
plays a minor role in evidence for global
warming. Melting ice, ocean heat content,
changing weather patterns, moving ecosystems
are more reliable evidence.
Australian Institute of Physics (Vic Branch) Education Committee
1-7 “It’s not getting warmer – it’s heat islands”
 Temperature measurements by satellites are
easily able to avoid cities.
 The fastest warming has been in the Arctic –
hardly a place of many ‘heat islands’!
More detail on following slides ...
Australian Institute of Physics (Vic Branch) Education Committee
1-7 “It’s not getting warmer – it’s heat islands”
 1) This effect has been well known to climate
scientists and they have gone to great lengths to
account for it.
 Anthony Watts project: classifying US weather
stations.
Australian Institute of Physics (Vic Branch) Education Committee
1-7 “It’s not getting warmer – it’s heat islands”
NASA Corrected graphs
Australian Institute of Physics (Vic Branch) Education Committee
1-7 “It’s not getting warmer – it’s heat islands”
 NOAA took his data and compared temperatures
from all stations with that from only ‘good’
stations...
Australian Institute of Physics (Vic Branch) Education Committee
1-7 “It’s not getting warmer – it’s heat islands”
1-7 “It’s not getting warmer – it’s heat islands”
 2) Melting ice, ocean heat content, changing
weather patterns, moving ecosystems are more
reliable evidence.
Chacaltaya, Bolivia
1940 0.22 km²
1982 0.14 km²
1996 0.08 km²
2005 0.01 km²
Australian Institute of Physics (Vic Branch) Education Committee
1-7 “It’s not getting warmer – it’s heat islands”
 2) Total mass of glaciers is decreasing.
Wikipedia
Australian Institute of Physics (Vic Branch) Education Committee
1-7 “It’s not getting warmer – it’s heat islands”
 2) Ocean heat content: Holds vastly more heat
than atmosphere. Steady upward trend.
CSIRO studies
Australian Institute of Physics (Vic Branch) Education Committee
1-7 “It’s not getting warmer – it’s heat islands”
 2) Changing weather patterns (last 3 years rainfall)
Just as
climate
models
predict.
Australian Institute of Physics (Vic Branch) Education Committee
1-7 “It’s not getting warmer – it’s heat islands”
2) Changing Ecosystems:
Rosenzweig et.al analyzed
data on 829 physical
systems and 28,800 plant
and animal systems from
1970.
Analysis revealed a picture
of changes on continental
scales:
In physical systems 95% of
observed changes are
consistent with warming
trends.
In living systems 90% of
changes are most likely
due to warming trends.
1-7 “It’s not getting warmer – it’s heat islands”
 3) Satellites can avoid cities
1-7 “It’s not getting warmer – it’s heat islands”
 3) NASA-GISS data more widely spread
1-7 “It’s not getting warmer – it’s heat islands”
 4) The fastest warming has been in the Arctic –
hardly a place of many ‘heat islands’!
2000’s
compared to
1951-1980
Australian Institute of Physics (Vic Branch) Education Committee
1-7 “It’s not getting warmer – it’s heat islands”
 NOAA go to great lengths to ensure their data is
reliable. Their website explains:
 www.noaa.gov/features/02_monitoring/weather_stations.html
 Stations in isolated areas are more reliable than those in cities.
Australian Institute of Physics (Vic Branch) Education Committee
1-8 “Sea Levels have stopped rising”
 There is no basis for the idea that sea levels have
not risen.
1-8 “Sea Levels have stopped rising”
 But some claim they have stopped. (Ashby 2010)
This is a very
dubious conclusion
from this graph!
Again – a very short
term trend (only 3
years here) is used
to suggest a long
term slow down.
The same data to
Dec 2009 ...
1-8 “Sea Levels have stopped rising”
 Some
 This
Australian Institute of Physics (Vic Branch) Education Committee
2-1 “The extra CO2 is not from fossil fuels”
 Yes, it is.
 Carbon has two isotopes: Carbon 12 and Carbon
13 (one extra neutron in the nucleus).
 Fossil fuels have less of the Carbon 13 isotope.
 The proportion of Carbon 13 in the atmosphere is
decreasing as CO2 from fossil fuels builds up.
Australian Institute of Physics (Vic Branch) Education Committee
2-2 “The proportion of CO2 in the atmosphere
is too small to matter.”
Composition of Air (by volume)
Oxygen
20.95%
Nitrogen
78.09%
Argon
0.933%
Carbon Dioxide
0.04% (used to be 0.03%)
Water vapour
0 ~ 3%
 The amount of CO2 is small but crucial!
 The 99.9% (O2 N2 & A) have no greenhouse
effect and so are irrelevant.
 A simple analogy...
Australian Institute of Physics (Vic Branch) Education Committee
Australian Institute of Physics (Vic Branch) Education Committee
Australian Institute of Physics (Vic Branch) Education Committee
Australian Institute of Physics (Vic Branch) Education Committee
2-2 “...and the proportion of human produced
CO2 is even less.”
 Some have said that the amount of human produced
CO2 is only a very small portion of the increase. (Bob
Carter claims only 3%)
 That is total rubbish!
 That figure is obtained from the portion of human
generated CO2 staying in the atmosphere (~4 gtn)
compared to all that going in and out (~108 gtn)
 The ‘natural’ cycle is balanced! We are upsetting the
balance by ~4gtn/yr now to the extent of a 38%
increase!
Australian Institute of Physics (Vic Branch) Education Committee
2-2 “...and the proportion of human produced
CO2 is even less.”
 Fossil fuel carbon has no C14 because it has all
decayed. (It is created in the atmosphere.)
 The concentration of C14 in atmospheric CO2 has
decreased exactly in line with the burning of
fossil fuels.
 To claim that somehow the increase of CO2 is
not due to burning fossil fuels is an
extraordinary claim – with no evidence as to
where it is coming from!
Australian Institute of Physics (Vic Branch) Education Committee
2-3 “Water vapour is a more important
greenhouse gas than carbon dioxide.”
 True!
 The total natural greenhouse effect warms the
Earth by about 33oC. It’s just as well we haven’t
increased that by 35%!
 The interaction between H2O and CO2 is
complex – they act in different ways
Australian Institute of Physics (Vic Branch) Education Committee
2-3 “Water vapour is a more important
greenhouse gas than carbon dioxide.”
+15oC
Greenhouse Warming
CO2
+33 °C
H20
–18oC
Australian Institute of Physics (Vic Branch) Education Committee
Can’t allot definite
proportions to H2O
and CO2 because
they act differently
in different
circumstances
2-3 “Water vapour is a more important
greenhouse gas than carbon dioxide.”
H2O goes in
and out of the
atmosphere
very rapidly
Australian Institute of Physics (Vic Branch) Education Committee
Once CO2 is in
the atmosphere it
stays there for a
century or so
Which is why some people want to see coal power closed
2-3 “Water vapour is a more important
greenhouse gas than carbon dioxide.”
 Because water vapour goes in and out of the
atmosphere readily it is referred to as a ‘feedback GHG’
– more warmth, more H2O into the air, cooler
conditions and it rains out.
 Carbon dioxide is a ‘forcing GHG’ as it stays in the air
continually forcing IR radiation back to Earth.
 As well, H2O and CO2 absorb different parts of
the IR radiation spectrum.
Australian Institute of Physics (Vic Branch) Education Committee
2-3 “Water vapour is a more important
greenhouse gas than carbon dioxide.”
 Absorption spectrum of H2O, CO2 and CH4
H2O
CH4
Australian Institute of Physics (Vic Branch) Education Committee
CO2
2-3 “Water vapour is a more important greenhouse
gas than carbon dioxide.”
 So it doesn’t matter how much water vapour is
in the atmosphere, adding CO2 and CH4 will
absorb more IR because they absorb different
parts of the IR radiation spectrum.
Australian Institute of Physics (Vic Branch) Education Committee
2-4 “More CO2 will help plants grow better”
 True...
 provided all other conditions are
appropriate
Australian Institute of Physics (Vic Branch) Education Committee
Australian Institute of Physics (Vic Branch) Education Committee
2-4 “More CO2 will help plants grow better”
 According to Peter Curtis, a professor of evolution,
ecology and organismal biology at Ohio State
University:
 While crops may be more productive, the seeds contain
less nitrogen. Nitrogen is critical for building protein
 “The quality of the food produced by the plant
decreases, so you've got to eat more of it to get the same
benefits,”
 “For example, the total number of seeds in wheat and
barley plants increased by 15 percent, but the amount of
nitrogen in the seeds declined by 20 percent.”
Australian Institute of Physics (Vic Branch) Education Committee
2-4 “More CO2 will help plants grow better”
 And that assumes the supply of water and other
nutrients is not affected by warming…
 and that ecosystems are not disrupted…
 and that plants won’t adapt to the new conditions and
reduce their CO2 uptake…
 and that the extra CO2 doesn’t melt polar ice and flood
fertile areas…
 and…
Australian Institute of Physics (Vic Branch) Education Committee
2-7“The CO2 in the atmosphere is already saturated”
Australian Institute of Physics (Vic Branch) Education Committee
Australian Institute of Physics (Vic Branch) Education Committee
2-7“The CO2 in the atmosphere is already saturated”
Australian Institute of Physics (Vic Branch) Education Committee
2-7“The CO2 in the atmosphere is already saturated”
Australian Institute of Physics (Vic Branch) Education Committee
3-1 The warming is caused by natural cycles - Earth orbit, the Sun…
 Of course there are many factors which affect the
climate!
 That is not to say that greenhouse gases aren’t one of
them – indeed we know they are very important!
Australian Institute of Physics (Vic Branch) Education Committee
3-1 The warming is caused by natural cycles - Earth orbit, the Sun…
 Plimer says “the climate
has always changed” – we
just have to get used to it.
 “If we humans, in a fit of
ego, think we can change
these normal planetary
processes, then we need
stronger medication.”
Australian Institute of Physics (Vic Branch) Education Committee
A 35% increase in greenhouse gas
just might effect the ‘natural cycles’!
Australian Institute of Physics (Vic Branch) Education Committee
3-2 “Climate models are just computer models which are not reliable.”
 Climate models are just the way scientists cope
with all the factors and calculations which must
be done to predict future climates.
 The basic input is data and the very well
established laws of physics and chemistry.
 Models are tested and modified by running them
over past climates.
 They are very successful at predicting past
climates
Australian Institute of Physics (Vic Branch) Education Committee
IPCC
(IPCC graph)
The basic data needed is measured in various ways and is well known.
Notice that overall, incoming equals outgoing (342 = 107 + 235). Also, that
large amounts of energy are absorbed and re-radiated by greenhouse gases.
3-2 “Climate models are just computer models which are not reliable.”
 Scientists put all the laws of physics and
chemistry into computer models which can do
the vast numbers of calculations needed.
 Some of the basic equations:
3-2 “Climate models are just computer models which are not reliable.”
 The models divide the atmosphere and ocean into
cells about 1 km deep
Australian Institute of Physics (Vic Branch) Education Committee
3-2 “Climate models are just computer models which are not reliable.”
 Remember this:
 Economic computer models take human guesses
about other human’s behaviour.
 Scientific models take the very well known laws
of physics and chemistry and apply rigorous
maths.
 There is a VERY BIG difference between
economic and scientific computer models!
 And climate models can be tested...
Australian Institute of Physics (Vic Branch) Education Committee
3-2 “Climate models are just computer models which are not reliable.”
 Results of models:
Australian Institute of Physics (Vic Branch) Education Committee
3-2 “Climate models are just computer models which are not reliable.”
 Ignoring our emissions:
Coolin
g
Wrong!
Australian Institute of Physics (Vic Branch) Education Committee
3-2 “Climate models are just computer models which are not reliable.”
 Including our emissions:
Warmin
g
Correct!
Australian Institute of Physics (Vic Branch) Education Committee
3-2 “Climate models are just computer models which are not reliable.”
 This is one reason climate scientists
are confident that they have the basic
science correct.
 And those models predict more
warming: 3°→ 5°C this century...
 unless we cut emissions!
Australian Institute of Physics (Vic Branch) Education Committee
3-2 “Climate models are just computer models which are not reliable.”
 Missing ‘hot spot’??? FIX THIS!!!
 The (US) CCSP SAP 1.1 Executive Summary states: "Previously
reported discrepancies between the amount of warming near the
surface and higher in the atmosphere have been used to challenge
the reliability of climate models and the reality of human induced
global warming. Specifically, surface data showed substantial
global-average warming, while early versions of satellite and
radiosonde data showed little or no warming above the surface.
This significant discrepancy no longer exists because errors in the
satellite and radiosonde data have been identified and corrected.
New data sets have also been developed that do not show such
discrepancies.” (From Wikipedia)
Australian Institute of Physics (Vic Branch) Education Committee
3-3 “Correlation between temperature and CO2 levels.”
Typical ‘denier’ graph:
• Short term 1998-2008
• Starts on high ends on
low
• Deceptive scale (looks
like more than 10 years)
• Looks ‘official’
Australian Institute of Physics (Vic Branch) Education Committee
3-3 “Correlation between temperature and CO2 levels.”
3-4 “Climate science isn’t settled”
 True! Science is never ‘settled’ and climate activists
should stop saying it is.
 The point is that there is a large amount of evidence to
suggest that we are dangerously interfering with the
climate.
 Science always works by different groups advocating
different approaches and often getting different results.
 By continually checking and re-checking, eventually
results begin to agree and consensus emerges.
 There is not yet a complete consensus, but there IS strong
opinion that we are changing the climate dangerously.
Australian Institute of Physics (Vic Branch) Education Committee
3-4 “Climate science isn’t settled”
 Some of the many science journals reporting on climate
change:
Australian Institute of Physics (Vic Branch) Education Committee
3-4 “Climate science isn’t settled”
 There are hundreds of papers published each year on the subject and many are
conflicting.
 The point.
 “A failure by some scientists to be candid on the uncertainty of predicting the
rate of climate change is to blame for fuelling scepticism about such
predictions, according the UK government's chief scientific adviser.”
 Beddington said scientists should give a caveat to their predictions where there
was uncertainty, and release source data "wherever possible" – but added that
uncertainty was no excuse for inaction. "I don't think it's healthy to dismiss
proper scepticism," he tells the Times newspaper today. "Science grows and
improves in the light of criticism. There is a fundamental uncertainty about
climate change prediction that can't be changed.“
Australian Institute of Physics (Vic Branch) Education Committee
3-4 “Climate science isn’t settled”
 “Performing cutting-edge climate science in public could easily lead to
misinterpretation, and it will take a great deal of work communicating
carefully with the public and policymakers to ensure that the results are used
appropriately.” More knowledge, less certainty Commentary Nature Reports
Climate Change 21 January 2010 Kevin Trenberth

Australian Institute of Physics (Vic Branch) Education Committee
3-4 “Climate science isn’t settled”
 From RealClimate see Unsettled Science TAKE MAIN
POINTS RealClimate.org * Climate Science — gavin @ 3
December 2009 in Politics wpd. The reason why no scientist has
said this is because they know full well that knowledge about
science is not binary – science isn’t either settled or not settled.
This is a false and misleading dichotomy. Instead, we know things
with varying degrees of confidence – for instance, conservation of
energy is pretty well accepted, as is the theory of gravity (despite
continuing interest in what happens at very small scales or very
high energies) , while the exact nature of dark matter is still
unclear. The forced binary distinction implicit in the phrase is
designed to misleadingly relegate anything about which there is
still uncertainty to the category of completely unknown. i.e. that
since we don’t know everything, we know nothing.
Australian Institute of Physics (Vic Branch) Education Committee
3-4 “Climate science isn’t settled”
Australian Institute of Physics (Vic Branch) Education Committee
3-4 “Climate science isn’t settled”
 The point is that we can not wait for certainty!
 That will only come when it is far too late to do
anything.
Australian Institute of Physics (Vic Branch) Education Committee
3-5 “Many scientists disagree with the IPCC conclusions”
 Science is about testing hypotheses. Scepticism is
central to science.
 ….easy to find disagreements – consensus not so
obvious
 But the disagreements are about the details, not the
general conclusion that AGW is dangerous.
 Surveys are very misleading – a butterfly collector
counts the same as a climate scientist.
Australian Institute of Physics (Vic Branch) Education Committee
3-5 “Many scientists disagree with the IPCC conclusions”
 After assessing 687 individuals named as “dissenting scientists”
in the January 2009 version of the United States Senate Minority
Report (James Inhofe) the Center for Inquiry’s Credibility Project
found that:
• Slightly fewer than 10% could be identified as climate
scientists.
• Approximately 15% published in the recognizable refereed
literature on subjects related to climate science.
• Approximately 80% clearly had no refereed publication record
on climate science at all.
• Approximately 4% appeared to favor the current IPCC-2007
consensus and should not have been on the list.
Australian Institute of Physics (Vic Branch) Education Committee
3-5 “Many scientists disagree with the IPCC conclusions”
Australian Institute of Physics (Vic Branch) Education Committee
3-5 “Many scientists disagree with the IPCC conclusions”
 Some of the Australian “scientists” included in
that report:












Ian Plimer
David Evans
Bill Kininmonth
Bob Carter
Lance Endersbee
David Archibald
Des Moore (IPE)
Bob Foster
Ray Evans
Don Aitkin
Robert Foster
Garth Paltridge
geologist
mathematician
Lavoisier Group, retired meteorologist
marine scientist “carbon dioxide is beneficial”
engineer
oil explorer “need CO2 to counter global cooling”
economist
Lavoisier Group, Mining executive
Lavoisier Group, Mining executive
social commentator
Lavoisier Group
retired physicist “AGW real but too small to matter”
Australian Institute of Physics (Vic Branch) Education Committee
3-5 “Many scientists disagree with the IPCC conclusions”
 Many of these are:







Not climate scientists
Geologists
Retired
Economists
Social scientists
Have interests in mining companies
Associated or members of the IPA
Australian Institute of Physics (Vic Branch) Education Committee
3-5 “Many scientists disagree with the IPCC conclusions”
 This year a well publicised petition was sent to
the American Physical Society to discard their
position on anthropogenic climate change.
 About 200 APS members signed it (< 0.5%)
 BUT: It was organised by people from the
Heartland, Marshall & CATO Institutes and
other well known ultra right organisations.
 It was ‘overwhelmingly rejected’ by the APS but
still has a high profile on denier blogs.
Australian Institute of Physics (Vic Branch) Education Committee
3-5 “Many scientists disagree with the IPCC conclusions”
 Of those who signed the APS petion only one
had published a paper in related fields.
 The vast majority were retired and over 60.
 (Hey, what’s wrong with that?!)
 Only a handful were under 50.
 A large number had been involved in other
denier movements.
Australian Institute of Physics (Vic Branch) Education Committee
3-5 “Many scientists disagree with the IPCC conclusions”
 In another proper academic survey of scientists
 3146 Earth Scientists were asked “Do you think
human activity is a significant contributing
factor in changing global temperatures?”
 97% of the active climate scientists said ‘yes’
(see next slide)
Australian Institute of Physics (Vic Branch) Education Committee
Public 57%
Active climate
scientists 97%
3-5 “Many scientists disagree with the IPCC conclusions”
 Rather than counting heads, look at the
statements from scientific bodies around the
world!
 Here’s a partial list...
Australian Institute of Physics (Vic Branch) Education Committee
Some scientific bodies who have issued statements stressing the
need for action on climate change – USA only


















National Academies of Science
National Research Council
American Association for the Advancement of Science (AAAS)
National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA)
National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR)
NASA's Goddard Institute of Space Studies (GISS)
American Institute of Physics
Woods Hole Research Center
Union of Concerned Scientists
Federal Climate Change Science Program
American Geophysical Union
Geological Society of America
American Chemical Society - (world's largest scientific organization)
Federal Climate Change Science Program - commissioned by Bush!
American Association of State Climatologists
US Geological Survey
Environmental Protection Agency (EPA)
Pew Center on Climate Change
Australian Institute of Physics (Vic Branch) Education Committee
Some scientific bodies who have issued statements stressing the
need for action on climate change – Rest of World
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
UN Project on Climate Variability and Predictability
United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC)
United Nations Environment Program
World Meteorological Organization
International Council on Science
The Royal Society (UK)
The Institute of Physics (UK)
Canadian Meteorological and Oceanographic Society (CMOS)
Geological Society of London
The Australian Academy of Sciences
The Australian CSIRO
The Australian Bureau of Meterology
The Australian Institute of Physics
The Institution of Engineers Australia
The Australian Meteorological And Oceanographic Society
… and many
more!
Australian Institute
of Physics (Vic Branch) Education Committee
3-5 “Many scientists disagree with the IPCC conclusions”
 Better still, look at the published science!
 The vast bulk of published science is saying the
same thing:
Australian Institute of Physics (Vic Branch) Education Committee
3-5 “Many scientists disagree with the IPCC conclusions”
Australian Institute of Physics (Vic Branch) Education Committee
3-5 “Many scientists disagree with the IPCC conclusions”
Australian Institute of Physics (Vic Branch) Education Committee
Where is the consensus?
 Let’s look at the key science journals!
Australian Institute of Physics (Vic Branch) Education Committee
Where is the consensus?
 Let’s look at the key science journals!
Australian Institute of Physics (Vic Branch) Education Committee
 Let’s look at the key science journals!
Australian Institute of Physics (Vic Branch) Education Committee
3-5 “Many scientists disagree with the IPCC conclusions”
 There are a small number of published articles
claiming alternative explanations for warming.
 This is a natural part of science – always testing
ideas by trying to disprove them.
 None of these papers ‘disproves’ AGW, they
only cast some doubt on some aspects.
 Most of these are usually cleared up within a
year or so and yet are still quoted by deniers.
Australian Institute of Physics (Vic Branch) Education Committee
From a ‘denier’ presentation by Leon Ashby
Australian Institute of Physics (Vic Branch) Education Committee
3-5 “Many scientists disagree with the IPCC conclusions”
 This paper has been very thoroughly refuted as
total rubbish!
 It was published in an obscure Hungarian journal
and is full of fundamental errors.
 Why would we risk the future of the planet on
one obscure publication????
Australian Institute of Physics (Vic Branch) Education Committee
3-5 “Many scientists disagree with the IPCC conclusions”
 The nature of science is to be sceptical – that is
how it has progressed.
 One article going against the general opinion
does not negate all the others.
 Articles questioning the general opinion are
valuable to scientists...
 but can be, and are, misused by deniers.
Australian Institute of Physics (Vic Branch) Education Committee
3-5 “Many scientists disagree with the IPCC conclusions”
 The “Oregon Petition” which was signed by about 31,000
‘scientists’ is often quoted as showing that “there is no consensus
on AGW”.
 It is important to realise that it was a PETITION not a survey:
 It could be signed by anyone who could claim they were any sort
of “scientist”. (No need for any climate connection!)
 Signers were encouraged to send it on to anyone else who would
sign.
 Anyone could request a form from the website.
 There were many fraudulent signers
 The actual number of signers was a very small portion of people
in the US who could claim to be a ‘scientist’.
Australian Institute of Physics (Vic Branch) Education Committee
3-5
 The “Oregon Petition” was discussed in eSkeptic, the newsletter
of the Skeptic Society. The conclusion:
 “In conclusion, through his Global Warming Petition Project,
Arthur Robinson has solicited the opinions of the wrong group of
people in the wrong way and drawn the wrong conclusions about
any possible consensus among relevant and qualified scientists
regarding the hypothesis of human-caused global warming. His
petition is unqualified to deliver answers about a consensus in
which the public is interested. He has a right to conduct any kind
of petition drive he wishes, but he is not ethically entitled to
misrepresent his petition as a fair reflection of relevant scientific
opinion. He has confused his political with his scientific aims and
misled the public in the process.”
 http://www.skeptic.com/eskeptic/08-11-12/
Australian Institute of Physics (Vic Branch) Education Committee
3-6 “Ice core data shows CO2 rises before temperature”
 There are many factors that can either trigger
an ice age or bring the Earth out of an ice age.
 A rise in the temperature will release CO2 from
the oceans, CO2 has a positive feedback effect,
i.e. it increases the temperature further, and so
on ….
Australian Institute of Physics (Vic Branch) Education Committee
3-7 “CO2 absorption is saturated”
 Or “The greenhouse effect is already at a
maximum”
 “Adding more CO2 won’t produce more
greenhouse effect”
 etc.
Australian Institute of Physics (Vic Branch) Education Committee
3-7 “CO2 absorption is saturated”
Australian Institute of Physics (Vic Branch) Education Committee
3-7 “CO2 absorption is saturated”
Australian Institute of Physics (Vic Branch) Education Committee
3-7 “CO2 absorption is saturated”
 1900 paper by
Angstrom
3-7 “CO2 absorption is saturated”
 1900 paper by
Angstrom
30 cm
3-7 “CO2 absorption is saturated”
Australian Institute of Physics (Vic Branch) Education Committee
3-7 “CO2 absorption is saturated”
Australian Institute of Physics (Vic Branch) Education Committee
3-7 “CO2 absorption is saturated”
 This
Australian Institute of Physics (Vic Branch) Education Committee
4-1 “Past warming has been good for life.”
 True – Once conditions became established!
 ...TBC
Australian Institute of Physics (Vic Branch) Education Committee
4-2 “Technology will solve the problem”

through geoengineering or CO2 pull down.
Australian Institute of Physics (Vic Branch) Education Committee
4-3 “Tackling CC is economically dangerous”

Tackling climate change is economically dangerous.
Australian Institute of Physics (Vic Branch) Education Committee
4-4 “CO2 from the developing world”

The increased CO2 from the developing world will exceed any
reduction the developed world can do.
Australian Institute of Physics (Vic Branch) Education Committee
4-5 “Australia’s emissions are relatively low”
 China’s emissions are many times ours
 True – But what about emissions per person?
 Get graph of total emissions showing Aust as
well as total population
Australian Institute of Physics (Vic Branch) Education Committee
4-5 “Australia’s emissions are relatively low”
25.6 ÷ 3.9
= 6.6
Australian Institute of Physics (Vic Branch) Education Committee
4-5 “Australia’s emissions are relatively low”
 It is astounding that supposedly rational, much
less moral, people will use this sort of argument!
 As a heavy coal/oil user nation we have a
responsibility to find ways to overcome the
problem WE have created – the Chinese didn’t
create it!
Australian Institute of Physics (Vic Branch) Education Committee
4-6 “Catastrophic predictions don’t come true”





People have been predicting global catastrophes forever and
none ever come true.
The Y2K bug was supposed to bring the electronic world to a
halt in 2000!
People realised that it could be a problem AND TOOK
APPROPRIATE ACTION!
Same with Ozone hole.
Most other dire predictions were not from scientists.
Australian Institute of Physics (Vic Branch) Education Committee
4-7 “They said we were heading for an ice age!”



In the 1970's they said we were approaching an ice age.
We are – or we were until our CO2 emissions outweighed the
very slow return toward another ice age in a few thousand
years.
That was a hypothesis being discussed in the 70’s, but there
were no firm conclusions about it – despite what some media
reports said.
Australian Institute of Physics (Vic Branch) Education Committee
4-8 “It’s a left wing political ploy”



“Climate change has been taken up by left wing groups to
attack capitalism.”
So somehow left wing groups have hoodwinked the huge
numbers of scientists (right back to Fourier and Arrhenius) into
becoming political radicals prepared to give up their
commitment to truth seeking!
This is just evidence of the extraordinary nonsense the deniers
will sink to.
Australian Institute of Physics (Vic Branch) Education Committee
4-9 “‘Climategate’ showed scientists cooked the data.”
Bolt:
Cried one, IPCC co-author Kevin Trenberth, in an
email to other members of this conspiracy: "The fact
is that we cannot account for the lack of warming at
the moment and it's a travesty that we can't."
In his recent paper:
An imperative for climate change planning: tracking Earth’s global
energy
… he discusses the need for better measurements of radiative fluxes
Trenberth is actually concerned about our inability to track
small year-to-year variations in the radiative fluxes – which
would help quantify the current changes in the Earth’s energy
budget. The email comment has absolutely nothing to do
with a lack of warming!
Australian Institute of Physics (Vic Branch) Education Committee
4-9
New Scientist
(web) 25 Nov:
“An analysis by New Scientist finds scant evidence of data
abuse, but does show persistent efforts to suppress work by
climate sceptics.
“Mostly the researchers are exposed as doing what they are
supposed to do: engaging in an often adversarial process to
arrive at the truth. One long exchange ends: "This is
ultimately about science, it's not personal."
Australian Institute of Physics (Vic Branch) Education Committee
4-9 “Hacked emails show scientists cooked the data.”
“The e-mails show researchers speaking privately
to one another, and it’s not always pretty. They
bad-mouth colleagues and critics (“The kindest
interpretation is that he is a complete idiot ...,”
says one about another climate scientist). They
discuss how to avoid releasing raw data to critics.
They worry that certain journals are becoming too
sympathetic to the other side.”
4-9 “Hacked emails show scientists cooked the data.”
“What the e-mails do not show, however, is a
grand conspiracy to concoct global warming.
Instead, they show sincere researchers struggling
to do good work in a highly politicized
environment — and sometimes losing their
tempers.”
The Psychology of climate denial
 Psychological Adaptation to the Threats and
Stresses of a Four Degree World
 A paper for “Four Degrees and Beyond” conference,
Oxford University 28-30 September 2009
 Clive Hamilton, Charles Sturt Professor of Public
Ethics, Centre for Applied Philosophy and Public Ethics
at the Australian National University
 Tim Kasser, Ph.D., Professor of Psychology,
Department of Psychology, Knox College, Illinois,
USA
 Web link??
We group the coping strategies that people are likely to use in the face of global
warming into three types.
1. Denial strategies. These strategies aim primarily at suppressing anxiety
associated with predictions of climate disruption by not allowing the facts to
be accepted in the conscious mind. By denying the reality of the facts, no
emotions need be felt.
2. Maladaptive coping strategies. Those using these methods acknowledge and
accept the facts about global warming up to a point, but the emotional impact
is such that they need somehow to blunt some aspects of the facts or the
associated emotions. As such, these methods of coping can be maladaptive or
unhelpful both to the individual and to the situation because they impede
appropriate action.
3. Adaptive coping strategies. These strategies are deployed when the person
accepts both the facts and the accompanying emotions, and then tries to act on
the basis of both. They are adaptive in the sense of promoting psychological
adjustment to new circumstances and stimulating actions appropriate to the
new reality.
 This APA Climate Change Task Force Report considers
psychology’s contribution to climate change by addressing the
following six questions:
 Section 1: How do people understand the risks imposed by
climate change?
 Section 2: What are the human behavioral contributions to
climate change and the psychological and contextual drivers of
these contributions?
 Section 3: What are the psychosocial impacts of climate change?
 Section 4: How do people adapt to and cope with the perceived
threat and unfolding impacts of climate change?
 Section 5: Which psychological barriers limit climate change
action?
 Section 6: How can psychologists assist in limiting climate
change?
 To be continued!