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Common Misconceptions by Climate Change Deniers This is a preview version of two different presentations we are in the process of preparing 1. A ‘Quick reference’ set of points for use in another presentation when denier points come up. Hyperlinks will take you to a set of quick answers to common points. 2. A fuller discussion of the common misconceptions to be used as a stand alone presentation or in conjunction with others. PLEASE SEE WEBSITE FOR UPDATED VERSION OF THIS PPT www.vicphysics.org/climateworkshop.html Australian Institute of Physics (Vic Branch) Education Committee Common Misconceptions by Climate Change Deniers Hyperlinks will go direct to appropriate page in final version 1. It is getting cooler. 2. The Middle Ages were warmer. 3. Ice core data shows that CO2 rises before the temperature does. 4. The extra CO2 is not from fossil fuels. 5. CO2 makes up a very small proportion of the atmosphere. 6. Water vapour is a more important greenhouse gas than carbon dioxide. 7. The warming is caused by natural and solar cycles 8. The climate is always changing. Australian Institute of Physics (Vic Branch) Education Committee Common Misconceptions by Climate Change Deniers 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 14. 15. Warming is good. Technology will eventually solve the problem. Tackling climate change is economically dangerous. The increased CO2 from the developing world will exceed any reduction the developed world can do. Climate models are just computer models Correlation not causation Global warming is just a theory Many scientists disagree with the IPCC conclusions Australian Institute of Physics (Vic Branch) Education Committee “It is getting cooler” “the warming has stopped” • The earth’s climate is influenced by many factors. A time span of several decades is needed to observe any trend. • These claims rely on ‘cherry picking’ a particularly hot year – 1998 the hottest year on record. • But choose 1996 or 1997 – Then EVERY year since those has been hotter! • The ten hottest years ever recorded were all in the last 14 years. Australian Institute of Physics (Vic Branch) Education Committee “It is getting cooler” “the warming has stopped” • What the deniers do with data like this: * Australian Institute of Physics (Vic Branch) Education Committee *2009 estimated Australian Institute of Physics (Vic Branch) Education Committee “It is getting cooler” “the warming has stopped” • ‘Other factors’ include the El Niño – La Niña cycle (ENSO) • 1998 was an exceptionally strong El Niño. • We seem to be heading upward again now. Australian Institute of Physics (Vic Branch) Education Committee “It is getting cooler” “the warming has stopped” • • • ‘Other factors’ also include the Sun – red line & curve We expect some cooling to 2008 as both ENSO (blue curve) and Sun (red) are in a low phase. Problem will be when they go high again in the next few years! Australian Institute of Physics (Vic Branch) Education Committee “It is getting cooler” “the warming has stopped” • A better indicator of ‘total Earth heat’ is the Ocean Heat Content Anomaly. Most warming is accumulated in the oceans and ice: Global energy accumulation and net heat emission Nordell and Gervet Australian Institute of Physics (Vic Branch) Education Committee “It is getting cooler” “the warming has stopped” • A better indicator of ‘total Earth heat’ is the Ocean Heat Content Anomaly. Here is one estimate: Australian Institute of Physics (Vic Branch) Education Committee “It is getting cooler” “the warming has stopped” • And another from the CSIRO: • Ocean heat content is going up relentlessly! Australian Institute of Physics (Vic Branch) Education Committee • • A different approach is to measure the total energy coming in from the Sun and the total being radiated out to space. If they are equal the Earth’s temperature will remain constant, but if not ... Australian Institute of Physics (Vic Branch) Education Committee “It is getting cooler” “the warming has stopped” • By measuring reflected and emitted radiation, and comparing it to incoming solar radiation “scientists have concluded that more energy is being absorbed from the Sun than is emitted back to space, throwing the Earth's energy "out of balance" and warming the planet.” * * National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) (Washington, D.C.), The Earth Institute at Columbia University (New York), and Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory (California) Australian Institute of Physics (Vic Branch) Education Committee “It is getting cooler” “the warming has stopped” • Footnote: • “Some climate scientists are predicting that surface temperatures will remain static or even fall slightly over the next few years, before warming resumes. Their predictions are based largely on the idea that changes in long-term fluctuation in ocean surface temperatures known as the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation and the Pacific Decadal Oscillation will bring cooler sea surface temperatures.” • • Michael Le Page New Scientist 15 August 2008 So the deniers may be around for a little while yet! Australian Institute of Physics (Vic Branch) Education Committee Common Pre(Mis)conceptions by Climate Change Deniers 2. “The Middle Ages were warmer” • • • • Any evidence is anecdotal, and restricted to specific regions. Even if they were a little warmer that is irrelevant as the reasons for the current warmth are quite different. The rate at which the temperature is currently rising is much greater than has been seen in any historical time. The temperatures we are heading for are much hotter than any experienced in history. Australian Institute of Physics (Vic Branch) Education Committee “The Middle Ages were warmer.” Medieval warm period may have been about the same as recent averages The Rate of increase certainly was not. Where we are heading is very much higher. 2,000 years Different colours are different determinations Black line is thermometer records Australian Institute of Physics (Vic Branch) Education Committee “The Middle Ages were warmer.” 20,000 years Period of human history Australian Institute of Physics (Vic Branch) Education Committee Common Misconceptions by Climate Change Deniers 3. Ice core data shows that CO2 rises before the temperature does. There are many factors that can either trigger an ice age or bring the earth out of an ice age. A rise in the temperature will release CO2 from the oceans, CO2 has a positive feedback effect, i.e. it increases the temperature further, and so on …. Australian Institute of Physics (Vic Branch) Education Committee Common Misconceptions by Climate Change Deniers 4. “The extra CO2 is not from fossil fuels” Yes, it is. Carbon has two isotopes: Carbon 12 and Carbon 13 (one extra neutron in the nucleus). Fossil fuels have less of the Carbon 13 isotope. The proportion of Carbon 13 in the atmosphere is decreasing. Australian Institute of Physics (Vic Branch) Education Committee “The proportion of CO2 in the atmosphere is too small to matter.” Composition of Air (by volume) Oxygen 20.95% Nitrogen 78.09% Argon 0.933% Carbon Dioxide 0.04% (used to be 0.03%) Water vapour 0 ~ 3% The amount of CO2 is small but crucial! The 99.9% (O2 N2 & A) have no greenhouse effect and so are irrelevant. A simple analogy... Australian Institute of Physics (Vic Branch) Education Committee Australian Institute of Physics (Vic Branch) Education Committee Australian Institute of Physics (Vic Branch) Education Committee Australian Institute of Physics (Vic Branch) Education Committee “The proportion of CO2 in the atmosphere is too small to matter.” Some have said that the amount of human produced CO2 is only a very small portion of the increase. That is total rubbish! Isotopic analysis of the C in the CO2 shows that it has come from fossil fuels – which have a lower proportion of C14 because they have been decaying underground for millions of years. (C14 is a radioactive form of carbon created in the atmosphere by solar radiation.) Australian Institute of Physics (Vic Branch) Education Committee “Water vapour is a more important greenhouse gas than carbon dioxide.” True! Australian Institute of Physics (Vic Branch) Education Committee “The climate is always changing.” Yes! On the large scale it swings between ‘hothouse Earth’ and ‘snowball Earth’ ± 10°C On the historical scale the changes have been very minor – Medieval warm period, Little ice age for example. ± 1°C Past changes have caused ‘mass extinctions’ We don’t want to cause the next one! Australian Institute of Physics (Vic Branch) Education Committee “Many scientists disagree with the IPCC conclusions” After assessing 687 individuals named as “dissenting scientists” in the January 2009 version of the United States Senate Minority Report (James Inhofe) the Center for Inquiry’s Credibility Project found that: • Slightly fewer than 10% could be identified as climate scientists. • Approximately 15% published in the recognizable refereed literature on subjects related to climate science. • Approximately 80% clearly had no refereed publication record on climate science at all. • Approximately 4% appeared to favor the current IPCC-2007 consensus and should not have been on the list. Australian Institute of Physics (Vic Branch) Education Committee “Many scientists disagree with the IPCC conclusions” Australian Institute of Physics (Vic Branch) Education Committee “Many scientists disagree with the IPCC conclusions” Some of the “scientists” included in that report: Ian Plimer David Evans Bill Kininmonth Bob Carter Lance Endersbee David Archibald Des Moore (IPE) Bob Foster Ray Evans Don Aitkin Robert Foster (Lavoisier Group) Garth Paltridge Australian Institute of Physics (Vic Branch) Education Committee “Many scientists disagree with the IPCC conclusions” Many of these are: – – – – – – – Not climate scientists Geologists Retired Economists Social scientists Have interests in mining companies Associated or members of the IPA Australian Institute of Physics (Vic Branch) Education Committee