Transcript Global Warming

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Global Warming
이영식
2004. 10
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Global Warming – 3 Signs
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After a decade as Editor in Chief, I have
a pretty good idea which articles will
provoke a lot of angry letters. Whenever
we publish stories that challenge widely
held beliefs, some readers get mad, and
they write to let us know.
Well, we’re about to do it again. I’d
willing to bet that we’ll get letters from
readers who don’t believe global
climate chagne is real, and that humans
contribute to the problem. Some
readers will even terminate their
memberships.
Why would I publish articles that make
people angry enough to stop
subscribing? That’s easy. These stories
cover subjects that are too important to
ignore. …
From Bill Allen
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National Geographic Magazine 2004 Sept
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Geo Sign
– The Earth has some unsetting news.
– From Alaska to the snowy peaks of the Andes
the world is heating up right now, and fast.
Eco Sign
– Flora and fauna are feeling the heat too.
– These are not projects; they are facts on the
ground.
Time Sign
– Maybe the current warming is just a passing
thing?
– Don’t bet on it, say climate experts.
– Something else is driving the planet-wide fever.
Greenhouse gas.
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Geo signs
In the mid-1800s the Unteraar Glacier was gouging its way through
this steep valley of Switzerland’s central Alps.
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Climate is changing
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Retreating glaciers, rising seas, and shrinking
lakes are some of the global changes already
under way.
The climate is changing at an unnerving pace.
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Goodbye Glacier
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Runoff from the Bockkogel
Glacier in the Tirol region of
Austria plunges down a
waterfall during the Alpine
summer.
Throughout the Alps, glaciers
have been in decline for 150
years, a result of rising global
temperatures.
Most scientists who study the
phenomenon attribute it in
part to greenhouse effect.
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Alaska Feeling the Heat
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추운 지방은 온난화에 민감
지난 삼십년 동안 평균 기온 화씨 4.16 도 상승
– in the northern city of Barrow, Alaska.
– 침엽수는 날씨가 따뜻하고 건조하면 산불이
나기 쉽다.
 Snow and ice have a high albedo – they reflect
a lot of solar energy. But as heat melts snow
and ice, darker, less reflective land or water is
exposed. More heat is absorbed, giving rise to
further melting and warming.
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Warming trends
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Average Northern Hemisphere surface temp
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Seasons Shift
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Researchers monitoring ice on Wisconsin's Lake
Mendota discover that the ice cover on the lake
averages about 40 fewer days now than it did 150
years ago.
Winter, in Wisconsin, is losing its chill.
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Looking Back
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Photograph by Peter Essick
Tourists in the canton of Valais, Switzerland, stand at the site
where the Rhone Glacier ended during the Little Ice Age in
the mid-1800s. The glacier has since retreated up the valley
as Alpine temperatures have risen. It can be seen in this
photo peeking over a cliff in the distance.
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Iceberg Factory
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The Marr Ice Piedmont, a glacier
that ends near Palmer Station on
the Antarctic Peninsula,
crumbles into the sea.
Elsewhere on the peninsula, a
section of ice shelf larger than
the state of Rhode Island broke
apart in early 2002.
The suspected culprit for such
events? Climate warming.
Average winter temperatures on
the Antarctic Peninsula have
risen nearly 9°F (5°C) since
1950.
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Cut Down to Size
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the massive Columbia Glacier, located near Valdez in
Prince William Sound, doesn't creep
Between 1977 and 1999 its length decreased by eight
miles (13 kilometers). The glacier is expected to lose
another ten miles (20 kilometers) of length by 2010.
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Surface Temperature Anomaly
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Eco Signs
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Fleischmann's glass frog, a declining species in parts of Costa Rica
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From penguins to alpine flowers,
animals and plants are coping
with the heat—or they're not.
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A Growing Concern
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Botanist Tad Day is seeing green. He's documenting the spread of the only two
species of flowering plants known to grow in Antarctica: the antarctic hair grass
and the antarctic pearlwort.
At this offshore site on Anvers Island near Palmer Station, neither plant was
detected in 1995.
By 1999, 23 pearlworts and 94 hair grasses had appeared; this year Day tallied
294 pearlworts and 5,129 hair grasses.
Warmer temperatures, he reasons, promote vegetative growth, cause larger
percentages of seeds to germinate, and force glacial ice to recede, exposing more
terrain for plants.
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Uphill Climb
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Rapid warming in high mountains
– May be forcing alpine flowers to compete with taller
plants inching up from below
– Helianthemum alpestre
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Coral Damages
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Coral Bleach
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Time Signs
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Computer scientist Jason Sun views multiple
screens to monitor the intricate interplay of
warm and cold ocean currents – a prime
driver of Earth’s changing climate.
What causes climate change? Could a
climate "flip" happen virtually overnight?
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Hard Core
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Glaciologists Victor Zagorodnov,
left, and Patrick Ginot extract a
section of a 550-foot (170-meter)
core from the summit of Peru's
Quelccaya ice cap, at an elevation
of about 18,600 feet (5,670 meters).
The ratio of certain oxygen
isotopes in the ice varies with
temperature, enabling scientists to
distinguish cold periods from warm
periods over thousands of years.
Rising temperatures are causing
Quelccaya—the world's largest
tropical ice cap—to retreat rapidly.
Its major outlet glacier has receded
nearly 3,100 feet (950 meters) since
1963—the smallest it's been in
about 5,000 years.
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Frozen Histroy
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Touching climate history
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The gloved hand of Tracy
Mashiotta, a researcher at Ohio
State's Byrd Polar Research
Center, points to a dust band in
an ice core from Peru's
Quelccaya ice cap.
The dust is swept up from Peru's
high desert and deposited on the
glacier each year during the dry
season, creating the glacial
equivalent of a tree's growth ring.
Scientists use such data along
with oxygen isotope ratios to
extrapolate temperature and
precipitation for each year.
Such cores from Quelccaya
have produced the longest
annual climate record ever
recovered from the tropics,
dating back 2,200 years.
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No High Ground
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It's pretty as a postcard from
the air. You'd never guess
that Male (above), the island
capital of the Maldives, is
threatened by the serenely
blue Indian Ocean.
If scientists' worst-case
projections come true and
sea level rises more than
three feet, the Maldives and
other low-lying atoll nations
could be underwater by
century's end.
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Greenhouse Effect
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지구의 평균온도
– 태양에너지와 거리를 고려하면 섭씨 -18도
– 실제 평균온도는 15도
– 수증기와 이산화탄소
• Fourier
• Tyndall
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Greenhouse Effect
– 이산화탄소는 적외선을 흡수한다
– 대기중 이산화탄소 농도는 증가하였다
– 지구의 평균 기온이 증가하였다
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Astronomical Rhythm
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Link between ice ages and astronomical rhythms
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Climate model vs. observed temperature
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Global Ocean Circulation System
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Great Conveyor Belt
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Thermohaline (temperature- and salinity-controlled density) circulation of
the oceans can be simplistically defined by a great conveyor belt.
In this model, warm, salty surface water is chilled and sinks in the North
Atlantic to flow south towards Antarctica. There, it is cooled further to
flow outward at the bottom of the oceans into the Atlantic, Indian, and
Pacific basins. After upwelling primarily in the Pacific and Indian Oceans,
the water returns as surface flow to the North Atlantic.
While traveling deep in the ocean the originally nutrient-depleted water
becomes increasingly enriched by organic matter decomposition in
important nutrients (e.g., phosphate, nitrate, silicate) and dissolved CO2.
Figure courtesy of Jim Kennett and Jeff Johnson, University of California
Santa Barbara.
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Global climate change
Meteorologists agree that these exceptional
conditions are signs that Global Climate
Change is happening already.
 Scientists agree that the most likely cause of
the changes are man-made emissions of the
so-called "Greenhouse Gases" that can trap
heat in the earth's atmosphere in the same
way that glass traps heat in a greenhouse.
 Although there are six major groups of gases
that contribute to Global Climate Change, the
most common is Carbon Dioxide (CO2).
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Greenhouse gas level hits record high
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Recordings from a volcano-top
observatory, NOAA's Mauna Loa
Observatory on Hawaii, showed
carbon dioxide levels had risen to
an average of about 376 parts per
million (ppm) for 2003.
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This is 2.5 ppm up from the average
for 2002. It is not the highest leap in
year-on-year atmospheric carbon
dioxide levels recorded by NOAA.
But it is the first to be sustained,
with 2002 levels up 2.5 ppm from
2001.
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http://www.newscientist.com/news/n
ews.jsp?id=ns99994802
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Greenhouse effect is real
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The day after tomorrow
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지구 에너지 균형
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지구 에너지의 근원은 태양
표면에서 방출되는 열의 약 84%를 대기가 흡수
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VSEPR
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왜 적외선을 흡수하는가?
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다양한 전자기파
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Typical IR spectrum
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Types of Molecular Vibrations
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Stretching (신축)
– change in bond
length
– Symmetric /
asymmetric
Bending (굽힘)
– change in bond angle
– symmetric scissoring
– asymmetric wagging
– Rocking (좌우 흔듬)
– twisting/torsion (꼬임)
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Animated Vibrations
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Molecular vibration
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Vibrational Normal modes
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Number of possible vibrations in a polyatomic molecule
– 2 atoms (H2) - 1 vibration (stretch n)
– 3 atoms (H2O) - 3 vibrations (n s, n as, s)
– 3 atoms (CO2) - 4 vibrations (n s, n as, s, w)
– 4 atoms (H2CO) - 6 vibrations (n s, n as, s, w, r(CH2) n(C=O))
– ...
– 3N - 6 for Non - linear molecule
– 3N - 5 for Linear molecule
3N degrees of freedom for N atoms
– 3 translation
– 3(or 2) rotation – rotation about the bond axis is not possible
– Orhters are "Normal modes“ (기준진동 방식, 정규진동)
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Principle Types of Motion
운동의 종류
(갯수)
변하지 않는 것
변하는 것
병진운동
(3)
결합길이
결합각
분자의 무게중심
회전운동
(2 혹은 3)
분자의 무게중심
결합길이
결합각
분자의 무게중심
진동운동
(3N-5 or 3N-6)
결합길이
결합각
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Carbon Cycle
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대기중 이산화탄소에 대한 인간의 역할
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Stationary burning includes discharges from all
burning of fossil fuels in the various types of stationary
installations; for example, gas turbines on production
platforms and oil burning for heating rooms.
Mobile combustion includes discharges from all
burning of fossil fuel connected to transportation and
mobile equipment; for example, engines in cars and
boats.
Process operations includes all discharges which are
not connected to burning; for example, coal and coke
used as reducing compounds in metal production and
emissions from waste depositories.
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메탄과 다른 온실기체
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CO2
– 1.5 ppm/year
– 대기중 수명 200-500년
CH4
– 쓰레기 매립지, 유기물질
부패, 농업과 축산업
– 적외선 약 30배 흡수
– 대기중 수명 12년
– 0.010 ppm/year
N2O
– 웃음기체
– 인공화학비료와 생물의 연
소
– 0.0008 ppm/year
– 대기중 수명 120년
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온실 효과
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이산화탄소는 지구 온도
를 올리는데 기여한다
대기중 이산화탄소 농도
는 지난 세기에 비해 증
가하였다.
이산화탄소 농도 증가는
인간활동의 결과이다.
지난 세기 동안 지구의
평균온도는 증가하였다.
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온실효과 대 오존파괴
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Global warming links
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Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC)
www.ipcc.ch
The IPCC is the most authoritative source for statistics and figures on climate change. Visit this site to view the latest assessment reports, press releases, and
graphics.
U.S. Global Change Research Program
www.usgcrp.gov
This site brings together information about federally funded research on global warming, changing ecosystems, the carbon cycle, the water cycle, and much more.
It contains links to hundreds of U.S. and international science organizations.
Global Warming
yosemite.epa.gov/oar/globalwarming.nsf/content/index.html
The United States Environmental Protection Agency's global warming site is a great place to begin investigating how your area will be affected by climate change.
Included are sections on sea-level rise, the impacts of warming on health, and things you can do to help reduce the emission of greenhouse gases.
Pew Center on Global Climate Change
www.pewclimate.org
This nonprofit organization is "dedicated to providing credible information, straight answers, and innovative solutions in the effort to address global climate change."
It provides information on the science behind climate change, the potential consequences of it, a glossary of relevant terms, and other valuable material.
National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
www.ncdc.noaa.gov/oa/climate/globalwarming.html
Log on here to get a synopsis of the 2001 report from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change and read scientists' replies to questions that are commonly
asked of climate experts.
Antarctica
www.wbur.org/special/antarctica/photogallery/multimedia.asp
Watch video footage of Adélie penguins on the western Antarctic Peninsula and follow a narrated slide show of scientist Bill Fraser as he explains how climate
change has affected their populations.
Coral Reefs
www.aims.gov.au/pages/research/coral-bleaching/coral-bleaching.html
How is climate change affecting the world's oceans, and what is coral bleaching? Visit the Australian Institute of Marine Science website to find out.
Paleoclimatology
www.ncdc.noaa.gov/paleo/paleo.html
At this National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration website you can learn about past abrupt climate change and global warming. The site contains a long list
of links and includes some material in Spanish.
National Snow and Ice Data Center
nsidc.org/index.html
Want to learn how the cryosphere—the world of ice and snow—is sending signals of a changing climate? This site provides information on mountain glacier
fluctuations, permafrost conditions, ice-shelf changes, and sea-ice decreases.
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Global warming references
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Alley, Richard B. The Two-Mile Time Machine: Ice Cores, Abrupt Climate Change, and Our Future. Princeton University Press, 2000.
Burroughs, William, ed. Climate: Into the 21st Century. Cambridge University Press, 2003.
Conservation of Arctic Flora and Fauna. Arctic Flora and Fauna: Status and Conservation. Edita, 2001.
Davis, Lloyd Spencer. Penguin: A Season in the Life of the Adélie Penguin. Harcourt, 1994.
Douglas, Bruce C., Michael S. Kearney, and Stephen P. Leatherman, eds. Sea Level Rise: History and Consequences. Academic
Press, 2000.
Drake, Frances. Global Warming: The Science of Climate Change. Arnold, 2000.
Hall, Myrna, H. P. Hall, and Daniel B. Fagre. "Modeled Climate-Induced Glacier Change in Glacier National Park, 1850-2100."
BioScience (February 2003),131-40.
Johansen, Bruce E. The Global Warming Desk Reference. Greenwood Press, 2002.
Kerr, Richard A. "Whither Arctic Ice? Less of It, for Sure." Science (August 30, 2002). Available online at www.sciencemag.org.
Meier, Mark F., and John M. Wahr. "Sea level is rising: Do we know why?" Proceedings of the Natural Academy of Sciences (May
14, 2002), 6524-26.
Ross, Robin M., Eileen E. Hofman, and Langdon B. Quetin. Foundations for Ecological Research West of the Antarctic Peninsula.
American Geophysical Union, 1996.
Stirling, Ian. Polar Bears. University of Michigan Press, 1988.
Ward, Bud, ed. Reporting on Climate Change: Understanding the Science. Environmental Law Institute, 2003.
Order a free copy online at www.gcrio.org/orders/product_info.php?products_id=87.
Weart, Spencer R. The Discovery of Global Warming. Harvard University Press, 2003.
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Global warming – national geographic
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Sept 2004
Tourtellot, Jonathan B. "Beachside Brazil." National Geographic
Traveler (April 2004), 34.
Gordon, David George. "Global Warming: Sweating the Small
Stuff." National Geographic Kids (April 2003), 34-5.
Klesius, Michael. "The State of the Planet: A Global Report Card."
National Geographic (September 2002), 102-15.
Suplee, Curt. "Unlocking the Climate Puzzle." National
Geographic (May 1998), 38-71.
Glantz, Michael H. "Climatic Shifts: Omens of Global Warming."
Restless Earth. National Geographic Books, 1997.
Matthews, Samuel W. "Under the Sun—Is Our World Warming?"
National Geographic (October 1990), 66-99.
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Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change
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In response to growing scientific and political debate about the
effects of human activities on Earth's climate, the UN
Environmental Program and the World Meteorological
Organization created the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate
Change (IPCC) in 1988.
The Panel's purpose is not to conduct research or produce new
data, but to evaluate climate data available primarily in peerreviewed, published scientific journals.
The IPCC's third assessment report (TAR), issued in 2001, is a
four-volume examination of the state of the world's climate and is
the basis for much of the material in this month's series of articles
on climate change.
on the Web at www.ipcc.ch.